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The Times Advocate, 2004-12-15, Page 6Exeter Times–Advocate Wednesday, December 15, 2004 Opinion Forum News The Turner Report It was only a few weeks ago that one of the major banks — BMO Bank of Montreal, as it now calls itself — issued a survey showing that a stunning 70 per cent of its customers have mortgages with fixed rates and long terms. This appeared to be part of the bank's marketing strategy in its cam- paign to get folks to go fixed, and avoid variable rate mortgages that fluctuate with rates in general. In fact, BMO's positioning was exactly in sync with the main- stream media view that people with VRMs are dangerous radi- cals who are gambling with their family's financial future. After all, the pundits warn, interest rates cannot stay at today's low levels and the cost of variable rate mort- gages will inevitably rise. Quite rightly, just about every economist on Bay Street had been saying openly for the past year that the cost of money was bound to go up — as the economy improved, prices snaked higher and cen- tral banks took a preemptive strike against their old enemy, inflation. The betting just a couple of months ago was that the prime rate of just over four per cent would be somewhere near six per cent by the end of next year. That would increase the cost of a variable rate mortgage by about the same amount. But, then came Dec. 7, and everything changed. The Bank of Canada decided to hold the line on interest rates, canceling an expected increase, and holding the prime at 4.25 per cent. More sig- nificantly, in the commentary that accompanied the bank's decision, a key statement was missing — that interest rates were likely to rise in the future as inflationary pressures mounted. What did this mean? Simply, that interest rates are going to stay exactly where they are until at least next summer, and quite possibly right through all of 2005. It also likely means any rate hikes in the next couple of years will be too tiny to make much of an impact on anything. And, suddenly, the variable rate crowd looked like geniuses. Here were a bunch of people with home loans tied to the prime rate, and generally costing four per cent or less. Meanwhile those homeowners who had opted for five-year, fixed terms, were servicing mortgages costing north of six per cent — an absolute increase of 50 per cent more than the VRM people. The only reason for getting into an expensive fixed-rate loan — that rates were bound to rise and this would prove to be cheaper in the long run — had just blown up. It was clear the prime was not going to six per cent next year, let along the eight per cent necessary to make today's five-year fixed rate look attractive. Meanwhile, over in another of the bank towers that day, there were some self-satisfied smirks. AT CIBC, for the past six years, customers had been urged to cast off their five-year loans and to get into floating rate mortgages at a quarter point below prime. The sole motivation for this strategy: To save money. Lots of it. The below -prime mantra had been questioned by media pundits and gurus alike, held up as radical and unnecessarily risky, and downright dangerous at a time when mortgage amounts had soared right along with the price of real estate. Traditionally, Canadians have flocked to the secu- rity of mortgage payments which remains static for half a decade at a time. For a bank to preach VRM was a heresy. But as it turns out, all those — your reporter included — who have said time and again to eschew the old-fashioned, fixed-rate mortgage, have been proven right. Tying your loan cost to the prime rate has saved borrowers thousands of dollars over the past few years, and this will continue to be the case. Face it: We are living in a low rate world now, and that is likely to be the case for years to come. Rampant technological advance is reduc- ing the price of everything from computers to DVDs to cars and communications. The American dollar has been allowed to drop in value to help Washingtonis trade imbalance, which means ours will stay high. Those two fac- tors alone — no inflation and an uncompetitive- ly expensive loonie — mean the Bank of Canada will not jump rates. If you like paying too much for your mortgage, though, you know how. GARTH TURNER THE TURNER REPORT Panther Profile EXETER — A huge thanks to everyone who came out to the Music Department's Christmas Concert last Wednesday. All donations went towards the Huron County Christmas Bureau, and a total of $860 was raised! The concert was excellent, and thanks to everyone for their support. The Chocolate Campaign is now underway! Chocolate money can be delivered to Student Council during lunch in the foyer, and more chocolate can be picked up to sell at the same time. Just a reminder to everyone that mints and caramels are $3, while almonds are $2. Everyone who sells $20 worth of chocolate will be entered into a draw for $250, so go sell chocolate! The Semi -Formal is this week, and just a reminder to all that to be eligible to attend the dance you must have paid your Student Fee, have no overdue library books or fines, and have no detentions owing. Tickets can be bought only in advance in the main foyer during lunch. Coming events: Wed., Dec. 15: • Boys Basketball at South Huron vs. St. Mikes. Juniors play at 2:30 p.m. and seniors at 4 p.m. Thurs., Dec. 16: • Reading Day • Semi -Formal, 7:30 - 11 p.m. • CLN bowling trip to Zurich • Girls hockey vs. Madill at home, 2:30 p.m. • Boys hockey at CHSS against CHSS and Goderich Fri. Dec. 17: • Last day of classes! • Christmas/Recognition Assembly • Student Council activities in the after- noon — sign up for activities before Friday! Mon., Jan. 3: • First day back, day 4 Merry Christmas from your wonderful Student Council! AMAN ZEHR PANTHE PROFILE DA R County council wraps up 2004 business By Pauline Kerr SPECIAL TO THE TIMES -ADVOCATE GODERICH — The final session of this year's Huron county council was held last week. Included in the regular business were thank-yous from committee chairpersons for support from staff and fellow councillors over the past year. Warden Bill Dowson com- mended county staff for their profes- sionalism and their general attitude of respect for the warden's office. The inaugural session of the 2005 council took place Tuesday. As the Times -Advocate was going to press, the only declared candidate for the warden's position was North Huron Reeve Doug Layton. County woodlots During the report by county engi- neer Don Pletch to council, a ques- tion arose concerning the county's forest land. Coun. Dave Urlin of South Huron asked what is happening with the forests. Pletch explained that the Maitland Valley Conservation Authority is submitting a plan for the 1,365 acres of forest owned by the county. Coun. Bernie MacLellan of Huron East said according to what he saw during a bus tour of the county's woodlots, it's going to take money to bring the forests back to a good con- dition. Pletch said there are only two hard- wood lots generating revenue. He rec- ommended whatever money is raised should go back into forest manage- ment. He said it isn't a large sum. Coun. Ben Van Diepenbeek of Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh told council about an upcoming woodlot tour being conducted by Maitland Valley, noting one woodlot, the Pollard Tract, that has a substantial amount of lumber coming out of it. Highways budget Huron County's agriculture, public works and seniors committee rec- ommended to council that any sur- pluses in the 2004 highways budget, except for maintenance and opera- tional items, be placed in a reserve account for capital projects in 2005. County engineer Pletch had report- ed to the committee that the 2004 budget was not finished until April, with a number of contracts prepared, tendered and awarded in May and June. However, Pletch said there was "insufficient time, staff and resources to complete all designs, obtain approvals, tender and construct all the projects within the realistic win- dow for obtaining competitive ten- ders, quotations and completing con- struction during optimum weather." As of Nov. 3, 2004, the highways department projected approximately $1 million of available budget for capital projects and $1.4 million of uncommitted fleet reserves remain- ing in the 2004 budget. Pletch further stated that while tender documents could be pre- pared and contracts awarded in December for completion in 2005, it wouldn't be at competitive prices. A better use of the taxpayer's money would be to tender in late winter, 2005. Projects not completed include bridge work on County Road 25 west of Blyth, and sewer projects. No smoking During the county's health and planning committee report, it was noted that Coun. Ken Oke of South Huron had requested the committee discuss the county's no smoking bylaw. Apparently there were no official signs on the doors at some county buildings. It was also noted in the committee report that two people have been ticketed for non-compliance with the county's no smoking bylaw. Bullying Penny Nelligan, director of the Huron County Health Unit, reported to council that the health and plan- ning committee had discussed the issue of abuse and bullying in schools. She said there is a DVD presenta- tion that addresses the issue. Entitled, "Take Notice", it is geared toward students in Grade 8 and up. Urlin suggested that working with students is more successful if it's done in the early grades. He related the results of a study that indicated 80 per cent of Grade 3 students reported they had been bullied. He asked Nelligan if there was anything for younger students. She replied, "We really don't have a presence in the public schools." The DVD used to educate high school students was made possible through a grant, and features local teens which gives it an added impact. However, she agreed that "multiple strategies" would be a good idea. Urlin said South Huron and the OPP have partnered for a video on bullying aimed at younger children. The video might be shared, he said. Coun. Rosemary Rognvaldson of Howick provided information about another video that might be of use. "TV Ontario has produced a video on bullying," she said. "Take Notice" will be shown at a future meeting of the county's com- mittee of the whole. Pilot project F. E. Madill Secondary School has been the site of a health unit pilot project; information on it was pre- sented during the health and plan- ning committee report to council. The project increased the frequen- cy of public health nurse visits from twice monthly to weekly, and increased the duration of clinic time in the school, starting in September 2003. The health unit report noted Madill is the county's most rural high school as well as the largest, with 1,100 students. In the first two months, over 400 students came through the doors of the health room compared to 25 the year before. The report further noted that while many of the visits were about sexual health issues, many students also discussed other concerns. The project is continuing this fall. Industrial accident BLUEWATER — On Dec. 10 at 4 p.m. OPP were called to Naylor Flooring on London Road in Bluewater after a 40 -year-old Bluewater woman was injured on an assembly line at the business. Police say Leanne Poole was separating hardwood floor slats on a conveyor belt when a piece got caught in a set of large rollers. She reached in while the machin- ery was running to try and remove the blockage and got her arm pulled in causing her arm to break. She was taken to South Huron Hospital for medical treatment. The Ministry of Labour will continue the investigation. Attempted theft SOUTH HU N — On Dec. 12 at 9:30 a.m. OPP were called to the parking lot of Eric Campbell Ford Lincoln in Exeter after a car was damaged. The owner told police he left his vehicle in the lot for two days. During that time someone entered the white 1991 Plymouth Acclaim and attempted to start it. The thief was not successful but the steering column and ignition were damaged in the process. If you can help police find the person responsible, call the Exeter OPP office or contact Crime Stoppers at 1- 800-222-8477(TIPS).