The Wingham Advance-Times, 1984-03-21, Page 34Farmers should expect 1984
net farm income to recover
Ontario farmers should position themselv-
es for investment, market, and profit oppor-
tunities in 1984, especially toward the latter
half of the year, the Bank of Montreal
forecasts.
Speaking to the Bank's 1984 Farm Profit
Outlook conference February 29, Senior
Agriculture Manager Patrick M. Moncrieff
.said: "In reviewing volumes and prices of
the revenue and cost sides, we expect 1984
net farm income to recover."
J.A.E. Morel, Senior Vice -President of the
Bank's Western Ontarip Central Divison,
t•'I the conference the farmvequity position
is still sound, but most farmers have had to
make adjustments in farm budgets and have
seen fewer funds avilable for personal living
expenses.
Lenders have become much more con-
scious of risks, he said, and are devoting
greater effort to risk management and
identification "by working with each client
and situation."
He listed criterea for an ideal Agri -Banker
identified by a past member of the Bank of
Montreal's Agricultural Advisory Panel, Sid
Gordonof Neepawa, Manitoba, and said
these criteria are shaping the organizational
restructuring currently going on within the
bank. They include:
1. His role should be separated from the
branch "bureaucracy" of various duties and
"all that assorted detail."
2. He should specialise to
agricultural client.
3. He should operate from an office outside
the branch, "de -formalizing it so 1 felt
comfortable just stopping in to pass the time
of day over a cup of coffee."
4. The farmer -client's file should be kept in a
computer and include not just financial
figures, but all the physical data about his
farm.
. he Agri -an er'-s–acpzrti,e-shotsid be -riot
only in financialbut in production and
marketing aspects of farming as well:
His credit authorization limits should be
high enough to enable him to make swift
decisions, with very few loans ever having to
get dividional office approval.
7. He would devote as much effort to
ensuring the farmer -client's deposits were
invested at maximum rates as to managing
the credit side of the account.
8. He would visit the farm frequently.
Mr. Morel said the current restructuring
of the ' Bank of Montreal's Commercial
banking activities, including agri-lending,
into a group independent from retail or
consumer banking centred in existing
branches addresses the farm banking
requirements listed by Sid Gordon.
"A separation of commercial agri-lending
from the daily personal use of bank services
will exist," he said. "Based on market area,
we will be specializing in agriculture with
strong agri-oriented personnel."
"Where feasible, we will be locating poultry boards will be challenged to match
agri-lenders in a separate office facility but supply with demand.
servicing the
close to a branch for traditional banking
services -- like availability of cash. Commer-
cial banking Units (CBUs) will have a much.
higher credit authorization authority and
turnaround time for the vast majority of
credit requests will be shortened. Our
account managers will be attempting to
provide more in the way of financial
guidance not just on loans but on invest-
ments as well. Certainly, more farm visits
will be in order to more fully understand
your business."
'Highlights of Mr. Moncrieff's Agri -Out-
look forecasts include:
—Approaching the 1984 planting season,
the U.S. and global wheat stock use ratios
are 54% and 22% respectively, indicating a
large surplus position -- particularly in the
U.S.
Winter wheat acreage is up 10%' in the
U.S. and 8% in Canada. No relief is
expected from Southern Hemisphere crops.
--The U.S. Wheat Program is likely to have
only minimal impact on stock reductions.
— While world wheat trade is expected to
increase by 2% there is little reason, outside
of weather, for optimism in 1984 wheat
prices.
— Global coarse grain production in 1983
was the smallest since 1975, and the stock
use ratio is 8.5% is the lowest in the last 24
years. This is reflected in current prices and
will -likely result in a much larger 1984 crop.
— A "Fence Row to Fence Row" corn crop
in 1984 - predominately in the U.S. --_could
push the stocks use ratio to 17 % globally
and about 25% in the U.S. and could push
,corn prices back to U.S. $2.50/bushel.
Reflected back into Canada this means ,
$100-117/tonne basis Chatham and $70-80/
tonne for non board Barley in Western
Canada.
— The lowest oilseeds carry over since
1974/75 a -a-L1,S:-stocks-u-se-ratio-of-13%-for
soybeans ensures markedly increased oil-
seed production in 1984.
— The next two years will be very
interesting in the red meat industry. In the
short run the hog industry is going through
the final phase of liquidation accompanied
by low prices. Hog prices in Canada will
bottom in the low $60.00/cwt dessed this
spring. Liquidation in Canada will be of a
very small magnitude compared to the U.S.
the latter of which should be completed by
mid summer.
— Profitablility in cattle feeding will be
mixed this year. Losses will occur in late
spring/early Summer if last fall's expensive
leder calves are fed high gain rations for
early finishing and marketing.
Increasingconsumer demand, rebuilding
of hog and cattle breeding population and
cheap feed grain are factors that will
combine to send prices of pork and beef
markedly higher into 1985, not in 1984.
— With this outlook for beef and pork,
The Faxm ?Edition, Week of March 21, 1984 3
768 Queen Street (Next to Gordon I.D.A. Pharmacy) Kincardine
ANNOUNCEMENT
Annual Canada farm show indicates
major upswing. •in equipment sales
Economic recovery appears to be just
around the corner for the Canadian farm
market if the 38th Canada Farm Show held
January 31 to February 3, 1984 in Toronto is
any indicator.
Sponsored by the Ontario Retail Farm
Equipment Dealers' _Association, the show
attracted 68,000 visitors over the four day
period to view the latest in farm equipment,
supplies and services by an unprecedented
582 exhibitors. Many exhibitors, including
some,of the major farm tractor manufac-
turerwere introducing new lines of
equipment to the Canadian farm market.
Show manager, Dawn Morris had this to
say about the show. "We are pleased with
the positive response to this year's show
from both exhibitors and visitors. Exhibitors
were receiving an enthusiastic and positive
feeling from the farmer that economic,
recovery is on the upswing this year," she
went on to say.
Dawn Morris's sentiment was shared by
many exhibitors. Ron Wiens of John Deere
Limited indicated that they were extremely
pleased with the show and the good
response from farmers to their equipment
• especially their new series of automated
forge harvesters. "The show was definitely a
positive indicator that 1984 will be a good
year," he said.
Exhibitors Share Enthusiasm Over Show
Wayne Hadley, Hadley Equipment (1980)
Limited, Massey Ferguson dealer indicated
that there was particular interest this year in
the deluxe models of equipment. "Last year
farmers weren't buying as they felt every-
thing was too expensive but this year there
seems to be a turn around in approach," he
went on to say.
Peter Mosey, International Harvester
confirmed this statement. "The 1984
Canada Farm Show was the best ever," he
sayd. "For the past couple of years farmers
have been putting off buying equipment,"
he said, "but this year they are showing
renewed interest."
Another first time exhibitor at the show,
Charles Wildeman, Keen Industries from
Saskatchewan was extremely pleased with
the interest shown in his trailers and said
that they would definitely be exhibiting next
year. Keen Industries pride themselves on
being the only manufacturers of aluminum
stock trailers in Canada.
Turn to page 7
Werner Ritgen
Don Poulton Real Estate Ltd.
is .� . eased to announce the appointment of WERNER
R1 TGEN to their office.
Werner' will be acting as our agricultural sales representa-
tive.
With his expertise in all areas of agriculture, he !s looking
forward to serving the rural real estate needs in the
surrounding areas, Tv contact Werner call 52977783.
Make an offer on one of these...
NICE BRICK HOME surrounded by 200 acres, 182 acres
workable, very productive soil, well drained, other features,
newer finishing barn for hogs, 2 siloas and drive shed. Take
advantage of a large FCC mortgage at good Interest rate.
Act now for spring possession.
100 ACRES, 68 workable, hardwood bush, licensed gravel
pit, self draining soil. Priced reasonable.
145 ACRES pasture farm, about 100 acres tillable. Priced to
sell.
190 ACRES, 52 acres workable, balance soft wood bush, only
$49,000.00. -
COUNTRY HOME on 2.5 acre lot, well maintained building
in quiet area of Ashfield Township.
WANTED -- poultry farms, cash crop farms within 30 miles
of Goderich.
Kincardine
396-8444
R. R. 7 Lucknow
529-7783