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The Wingham Advance-Times, 1984-10-03, Page 29• Shirosskrfer The Energy Answer People. SERVING THE PUBLIC AND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SINCE 1949 • Urethane sprayed in place • Cementitious thermal barrier for over urethane • Cavity Wall Insulation • Ener Seal that controls air leakage CANADIAN GYPSUM RED TOP BLOWN MINERAL WOOL CEILING INSULATION C.H.I.P. APPLICATIONS Up to $500 grant on homes built before Sept. 1177 • AGRICULTURAL • RESIDENTIAL • COMMERCIAL • INDUSTRIAL Waterloo, 646 Colby Drive 885-6380 or Toll Free 1-800-265-4717 er.st, Canadian General Standards Board CERT. N ONT. - 24 - 116 5 ras hur ler II S tj lisiCTs ® sow 885-6380 GRAND ILLUSION Even though we are enter- ing the final quarter of the year, the economic outlook for 1985 remains obscure. In the 1930's a movie called "Grand Illusion" (in- cidentally, wildly acclaimed by Mussolini's Italy) illustrated that romanticism and fantasy can obscure reality. Today, many people in the U.S. financial com- munity suggest that we are entering a- new golden era reminiscent of the early 1960s, but, in fact, this too is a "Grand Illusion". The Reagan adminis- tration could produce a modest, second half 1985 Canas•a's Business by Bruce Whitestone "growth recession", result- ing from tighter control of the money supply and a large tax increase there dur- ing the spring of next year. A decline of about 1 per cent in real GNP could follow, which would be less than the average, post-war recession - induced decline in GNP of 3 per cent. This mini -recession likely would cause industry utilization rates to drop from approximately 82 per cent of capacity to around 79 per cent, and would permit the U.S. Federal Reserve Board to ease its tight grip on money supply; interest rates then could fall and more vigorous growth resumed. These occurences would be consistent with past cycles in the United States when, immediately following an election, unpleasant events take place. It is possible, however, that the results will be far more ambiguous and less confartable. Any recession would lead to continued stag- nation and higher inflation as temporarily lower inter- est rates would bring about a reduced external value of the U.S. dollar. Resulting 6'in- creased cost- of imports would entail more inflation, even though tax increases would slow personal con- sumption and business ac- Crossroads--r-Oct. 3, 1984 -Page 15 tivity. A sharp drop in the value of the U.S. dollar eventually could force the Federal Re- serve Board to defend it by raising interest rates, inhib- iting investment and longer term growth prospects. Thus in all likelihood, 1985-, 86 initially will be a period of considerable policy con- fusion, with an initial effort at restraint by the U.S. monetary authorities not accomplishing very Hauch to slow down inflation. Then, in an effort to restrain rising inflation by imposing a more restrictive monetary policy, a more severe business re- cession could develop, push- ing the U.S. federal budget deficit over $250 billion, and negating the benefits of any post-election budget com- promises. Ultimately then, con- straints on any tough policy in the United States would be short-lived. 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TO 9:30 P.M. 9:31 A.M. TO 6 P.M. Come see our Oktoberfest. Dancers at Centre Court Saturday, October 6 at12&3p®mo minor business eorrectioa. As time passes, it seems probable that the public will decide that inflation is far more tolerable than another dose of high unemployment. It is clear, therefore, that the present economic recovery is riddled with "no- win" choices. The United States has a popular conser- vative administration, primarily popular because, its policies have been the most stimulative of any in the entire post-war period. The consumption boom has been encouraged, financed by foreign borrowing end an over -valued currency, which, in turn, can be traced to high interest rates. The pursuit of an economic boom has led to deficits far higher than any ever seen in the United States. If policies are changed and interest rates are lowered, outflows of foreign investment could take us full circle back to the world of the 1970s. The ex- ternal value of the U.S. dollar would decline'' Much higher interest rates then would become essential to replace foreign funds with domestic investment, and a weak U.S. dollar would cause Inflation to rise rapidly, reflecting the in- creased cost of imported materials. All in all, notwithstanding current illusions, it appears that the world • economy is vastly different from the one which last spawned a golden age. Brarnah's Ontario The more I travel the province, and it works out to about 4,000 miles a month, the more I appreciate it. Especially at harvest time. I like to visit Fall Fairs, the Niagara peninsula, Holland Marsh and the flat- lands of Western Ontario. To the more fortunate of us, there's an aura of abund- ance. Closer to home, I've seen the joy in my wife's face when she brings in the first tomatoes from her garden. Tip roadside stands on highways and country roads are bulging with:fresh fruit and vegetables. It's a won- derful time of year. Of course, most of us are on the receiving end. The farmer and his family, per- haps the most underrated members of our lop -sided society, have to put up with the bugs, weeds and all the other. irritations that put barriers in their path. And every once in. a while, Mother Nature gets mad at. man and starts tothrow things around her kitchen. Like hail, wind and flash floods. Then she pouts and won't even throw the water out of the dishpan. So we get no rain at all. But even the economise pressures of farming these days seem to be momen- tarily forgotten at the Fall ,Fairs. Livestock is proudly dis- played. ,.There are cattle, goats, sheep and snortirg pigs. Magnificent Clydes- dales, Belgians and Perch- erons clip -clop , through . the fairgrounds. Well- groomed roadsters go whirl- ing around the tracks, their owners and trainers hanging on for dear life'_ Show horses and ponies prance around in front of the judges. Every- body looks very serious. After all, there's a red or blue ribbon at stake. In the buildings, the priz,e pumpkins, potatoes, turnips and tomatoes form a back- drop as city and country people meet. There's admiration for the artistry of quilts and crafts, and a touch of nostalgia while gazing at the mouth- watering cakes and pies from Mom's oven. The Fall Fair is the show- case 'for country living and the harvest. No one is in any great rush, and you get the feeling that all's right with the world. But human nature being what it is, there's always something . to complain about. At harvest time when I stop at those fruit and vegetable stands, I get a feeling of frustration. Everything comes at once. The plums, pears and peaches all arrive at about the same time. We just get a bit of a breather, and the apples appear. Our stomach can't take it all in, and we take the only way out. We eat what we can, and what we can't, we can.