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Times Advocate, 1993-08-04, Page 11Summer commodity outlook projections- are released OTTAWA - Agriculture and Agri -food Can- ada economists released their summer agricul- ture outlook for 1993 and 1994. The com- modity and farm income projections are listed below. Wheat World wheat utilization is expected to ex- ceed production resulting in a reduction in ending stocks in 1993-94. Higher U.S. pro- duction and ending stocks, lower world trade and high levels of export subsidies are expect- ed to depress world wheat prices in 1993-94. Canadian wheat production is expected to decrease but exports are projected to increase due to projected increased supplies of quality wheat in 1993-94. In 1993-92 the Canadian Wheat Board final realized prices for spring wheat are projected to decrease while the price of durum remains steady at 1992-93 levels. The final realized price for Ontario winter wheat is projected to increase. Coarse grains World supply of coarse grain in 1993-94 is project- ed to decrease while usage is expected to increase marginally. World trade is also expected to decrease significantly. In Canada, despite increased corn production and improved quality, com prices will be unchanged from 1992-93. Canadian barley production and exports:are expected to increase while feed barley prices' will .in- crease marginally. Canadian oat exports to the United States in 1993- 94 are expected to remain strong although-prices=are projected to remain unchanged. Rye production is also projected to increase while prices remain unchanged. Oilseeds 'Canadian oilseed production in 1993 is expected to increase significantly from 1992 due to a large in- crease in plantings. Canola prices in 1993-94 are expected to be steady .or slightly stronger, while flaxseed prices should strengthen despite a moderate rate increase in supply. Soybean prices in Canada in 1993-94 should be sig- nificantly stronger even with a sharp increase in pro- duction. Livestock Canadian cattle slaughter is expected to decline by .four percent and total marketings by one. percent this year. Slaughter is expected to increase in 1994. Exports of live cattle to. the U.S. are expected to in- crease by four to five percent this year and decline slightly in 1994. Beef exports in 1993 will remain similar to 1992 but imports will reach a record level. Average cattle prices in 1993 for Al, A2 steers should be down from the record first half levels but up by $8/cwt overall from 1992. Prices are forecast to drop $5/cwt in 1994. Pork production in Canada is expected to remain stable in 1993 but decrease by three percent in 1994. Hog prices0,q, j993 are forecast to be 10 percent above 1992 levels but may decline marginally in 1994. Live hog exports to the U.S. are expected to show a marked increase in 1993 and 1994 compared to last year. Poultry Canadian chicken consumption in 1993 is expected to rise 3.5 percent and domestic production is forecast to rise by 5.5 percent. Domestic turkey consumption should reach year earlier levels in1993. Domestic production is expected to decline by 4.6 percent in 1993 but is expected to re- bound in 1994. Stocks are expected to decline sharply in 1993. Canadian table egg consumption is expected to in- crease by one percent in 1993. Domestic egg produc- tion should increase by 0.5 percent from last year. Dairy Butter consumption is expected to drop two per- cent in 1993-94 while cheddar cheese and specialty cheese production and consumption are expected to increase. Industrial milk and cream production should reach -41.5 Mhl for the 1993-94 dairy year, down 1.4 percent from last year. No quota cut is expected for the 1993-94 dairy year. Dairy subsidies will go from $6.03 to $5.43/bL over the next two dairy years, and reduced to $5.13/ ELL in 1995-96 and $4.83/hL in 1996-97. Horticulture Canadian apple production is expected to decline in1993, while apple prices may strengthen slightly in 1993-94. Canadian potato production is forecast to decline from last year's record level but should remain above'average. Canadian potato prices for 1993-94 are expected to remain unchanged from the previ- ous crop year. Special crops Canadian plantings are up for pulses, mustard and canary seed, but down for buckwheat. Higher con- tract prices will be paid for mustard while lower prices will be paid for dry peas. Dry pea plantings are up 85 percent this year as a result of steady market prices in 1992-93 for most types of dry peas,nd good market demand. Canadi- an exports in 1993-94 are expected to increase but at weaker prices. Lentil plantingsare up 35 percent from last year and mustard seed up by 58 percent from 1992-93. Farm cash receipts Crop receipts in 1993 are expected ttr-incxeasety about one percent .from .the 1992 level: to between $7.6 and $9.0 billion. Livestock receipts are expected to increase toy about five percent to $11.5 and $12.1 billion. This is a result of both higher overall cattle and hes re- ceipts,,despite lower cattle marketings forecast in Ontario. Program payments are expected to decrease by 16 percent in1993. Payments under the National Tri- partite Stabilization Program (NTSP) will decline - in line with the improved market prospects. The Farm Support Adjustment Measures program '(FSAM) has come to completion which will also re- duce program payments. Total cash -receipts in 1993 are forecast to remain unchanged fronL.last year at between $22.4 and $24.3 billion. Farm expenses Operating expenses are expected to remain at aboutihe same level in 1993 as in 1992, between $15.7and $17.1 billion. Decreases are expected in interest, feed, fertilizer and insurance premiums in 1993. Net cash income Net oash income in 1993 is expected to remain at the same level as 1992 between $6.3 and $7.5 bil- lion due in part to higher than expected Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) final payments and an im- proved livestock outlook. (Net cash income is the measure of cash receipts minus expenses.) Net cash income for 1993 will vary between provinces reflecting the strength of the various commodity prices, marketings and production mix. Net cash income for Newfoundland, Manitoba, Al- berta and British Columbia is expected to increase in 1993 foam last year. Net cash income for 1993 is forecast to remain at or very close to 1992 levels in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec and Saskatchewan, while in- come decreases are forecast for PEI and Ontario. Farm workers get the right to organize TORONTO - Labour Minister Bob Mackenzie announced July 29 that most of Ontario's agricultural and horticultural workers will, for the first time, gain bargaining rights under a labour relations act designed specifically for their sec- tors. "This is an important and posi- tive step forward for thousands of Ontario farm workers," Mackenzie said before introducing the bill in the legislature. "Agricultural work- ers have always been excluded from the rights and privileges available to more than a million other workers under the Labour Relations Act. Ontario is among the last of the provinces retaining. such an exclusion." The Minister said the new act is based on recommendations from the Task Force on Agricultural La- bour Relations. The act evolved over an 18 -month period of con- sultation leading to consensus among task force members from the agricultural industry, its work- ers, organized labour and the gov- ernment. Elmer Buchanan, Minister of Agriculture and Food, said "I aIn pleased that this package balances the needs of both farmers and farm workers. It does this in ways that recognize the unique challenges of Ontario's agricultural industry -- with the perishable nature of its products and the time -sensitive na- ture of its operations." Most agricultural workers will come under the new act. However, to maintain the integrity of family farms, special provisions protect the rights of family members to work. Seasonal workers will be given the right to organize after the gov- ernment passes regulations later this year. However, they will be placed, in a separate bargaining unit from year-round farm work- ers. Because farming is a seasonal enterprise and its produce is perish- able; strikes and lockout` will not be permitted. Instead, a :,uuctured process of negotiation, mediation and arbitration based on a single fi- nal position presented to a 'selector' by each side in a dispute will be put in place. The Labour Relations Advisory Committee, made of representa- tives from farm workers, owners and government, will monitor la- bour relations in the agricultural sector. It also will advise the gov- ernment on required reforms and on education programs. • In addition, the new act will cieprly set out strict guidelines re- giltg access to farm property for the purposes of organizing work- ers. These guidelines will reflect • critical sanitary and safety consid- erations unique to farming. Tunes-iAtivoeate, August 4,1993 Purge 11 One Foot in the Furrow B Bob Trotter I get pooh-poohed by many readers when I get on my soapbox and decry the way good farm land disappears in Canada every year under miles of asphalt, cement, parking lots, subdivisions and row upon row of ticky-tacky houses. A fellow farm writer 'calls me every now and then after my tirade about saving good land and says I am on my useless land use horse again. "There's lots of farm land left," he says. "We don't have to pre- serve it. We can make poor land arable if we have to." True enough, I suppose, but it will cost more money to make that poor land into good land and farm- ers are not getting enough for their products now so why spend money on poor land? Another friend, who once owned a feed mill, telephones me when- ever he reads a column about land use and chuckles in his beard. "Listen, man, we don't have to worry about farmland. Hell, we can grow grain on the roofs of fac- tories if we have to. Why are you always harping on land use and the preservation of farm land? People have to live somewhere. We can't hang them from trees. "You have to put those subdivi- sions somewhere." Ile is right, of course, but do we have to -put them on the best farm land? When seulcrs came here, they were farmers. 'Small villages sprang up to serve the farmers. The villages became towns and the towns became cities. Now we have this horrible urban sprawl that makes a city a metropolis and a metropolis into a megalopolis, a huge string of cities, which gob- bles up farms. Now comes a report from the United Nations Food and Agricul- tural Organization that says the world is losing productive soil to abuse at such an alarming rate that we may not be able to feed our- selves early in the next century. In the best estimate available to date, the FAO says more than 1.5 million square kilometres may lose most of its agricultural value in 20 years. Twenty years?. Only two dec- ades? "If things continue the way they are, the rising population and the shrinking land base are going to meet each other," said Robert Brinkman, chief .of FAO's soil re- sources division. "Are we going to have enough good land to feed the extra 2.5 bil- lion people who will be on this planet by the year 2025?" asks Edourd Saouma, FAO director gen- eral. The figures that prompted the question came from a group of 250 scientists of the International Soil Reference and Information :Centre. Man's abuse consists of deforesta- tion, overgrazing .and the planting of crops which do not protect the soil from erosion. In Africa, for instance, Ignd deg- radation . is proceeding so rapidly that few African countries can hope to achieve sustainable agriculture in the near future. Serious food consequences could eventually be Ontario DHIC report Calving heifers pay CLINTON - A recent Ontario DHIC report indicated the average age of first calf dairy heifers was 29 months. Raising healthy, productive, eer- ily calving heifers should be.a pri- mary goal of every producer. Re- search has shown heifers calving at 24 months of age are more prof- itable. In fact, heifers not fresh by two years of age can cost as much as.$4.00/day until calving. The ex- tra profit comes from lower la- bour, feed and overhead costs, while increasing lifetime produc- tion and genetic improvement. Let's examine the financial im- pact of calving heifers at 29 months versus 24 months. 29 months - 24 months = 150 days. 150 days x -$4.00/day = $600/heifer. In an operation with 20 heifers entering the herd annually this rep- resents 512,000 - a sizable reason for focusing on "heifer manage- ment." A 1993 Holstein Heifer Study done in our county indicated total costs to raise a heifer from birth to 24 months is nearly $1,400. Al- though feed is the big expense (ap- proximately 50%), there are other costs such as labour, housing, breeding, vet and medicine, inter- ! est and death loss. All these items have a dollar value and should be considered when analyzing your heifer rearing program. Dennis Martin Farm Management Specialist for Huron County felt... in Latin America and Asia. Reversing this trend to soil deg- radation requires social, economic and technological planning, says Brinkman and I am with 'him every step of the way. I have been saying for 30 years that a comprehensive land use plan should be enacted in every province in Canada. To my knowledge, British Columbia is the only province- where such a plan has been implemented. This is a small planet. Only 11 percent of the land surface is good for agriculture; all the rest is use- less for growing green things to eat. If you think I am using scare tactics about land use, just look at what has happened in Atlantic Can- ada. Thirty years ago, nobody would believe that cod stocks would become so depleted that fishermen would be forced off the water. This is not funny, Magee. We have an opportunity to preserve Canadian land for agriculture. Now is the tjme to do it before farmers become as extinct as cod fisher- men. "4110111k -NeNNIKNoklip,NpNe04 Come to Spring Creek Farm for your Seed Cleaning needs Bulk or bagged; treated or untreated, no Tat too Targe or too small. Call today for your appointment and avoid the rush at planting time. At Spring Creek Farm down home service and quality comes before pmt. Paul Alexander - (519) 263-2139 T777777-‘77-7 ETOR Find Out Hw Much Tractor You Really Can Afford! 1 illl!fe_My Sales 6 Servlce Phone (519) 236-4934 Fax (519) 236-7330 - 22 Maln Street,, E., Zurich • WHEAT 40 BARLEY WE ARE READY TO RECEIVE YOUR 1993 Hill Hill FARMS t MITW VARNA ONT. /t CUSTOM COMBINING AND TRUCKING AVAILABLE , *RED AND WHITE WHEAT * BARLEY THREE RECEIVING PITS HARVEST SERVICES AVAILABLE CONTACT PETER ROWNTAIIIE OR REV HILL 233-7908 VARNA GRAIN 233 3218