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The Citizen, 1992-12-09, Page 5WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 9,1992. PAGE 5. Arthur Black Where’s Obi Ben Kenobi when you need him? Here's a sober little factoid to make you spray your morning coffee all over the breakfast table: life on earth has 134 years to go. If you want to be absolutely precise - it has 133 years, seven months and two weeks as of New Year's Day. The official word is that on Aug 14, 2126, the orbit of Periodic Asteroid Swift-Tuttle will intersect with Earth's orbit. That's the way astronomers explain it. More bluntly, the experts are saying that on Aug 14, 2126 a ball of rock and ice three miles across is going to smash into our planet. Three miles wide - heck, that's not very big. Will we even notice? We'll notice. “It will create an impact force on 20 million megatons” says Duncan Steel, an astronomer at an observatory in Sydney, Australia. Twenty million megatons is kind of International Scene By Raymond Canon A vital turning point I wonder how many of my readers can look back on their life and zero in on one point where they had a choice of doing things, each of which would lead them in an entirely different direction from the other. Furthermore, if that is the case, you probably look back and wonder what might have happened if you had taken the other choice. That certainly is the case in my life. It came at a totally unexpected point and at a busy intersection in Paris, France. I was attempting to cross one of the busy streets leading into the even busier Place de la Concorde and, given the intensity of the traffic, I was wondering if I was ever going to get across. I looked up to see an officer of the RCAF standing beside me, who was also waiting for the traffic. He said something to me in French leading me to believe that English was actually his native language and so our conversation continued in that language. To make the proverbial long story short, he told me he was helping to set up the NATO Air Training Program. I replied that I was on my way back to Switzerland where I would be working, as well as being the playing coach for one of the Swiss hockey teams. I told him I had learned my hockey in Canada. He was very persuasive and before we parted he had talked me into putting my hockey career on hold (as well as my work) and working instead at NATO for a couple of years as an instructor. I must confess that anything to do with flying simply captivated me and with his assurance that I could always go back to Switzerland later and play to my heart's content (I was only 22). So it was that I came back to Canada and the rest, abstract for we non-astronomers. To get an idea of the impact, think of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. Now multiply that one point six million times. Even if Swift-Tuttle was half the size it is now, we'd be toast if it hit our planet. “A one to two-kilometre object hitting the Earth would wipe out at least 75 per cent of mankind” says Steel “and an impact in the ocean is no less dangerous than an impact on land.” If it's any consolation, we've been through this doomsday scenario before. Several times, as a matter of fact. That's the good news. The bad news is that, each time it's happened most life on earth has been destroyed. Astronomers believe the Earth gets pasted with an asteroid this large about once every million years. Many experts assert that it was an asteroid about the size of Swift-Tuttle that wiped out the dinosaurs. Back in 1908 an asteroid streaked through the atmosphere and slammed into Siberia, levelling every tree for hundreds of miles. They reckon that asteroid was about the size of a largish bungalow. So we're in trouble, folks - or rather our children's children's children are in trouble. Of course 134 years is a long time. A hundred and thirty-four years ago we didn't have automobiles, electric lights or telephones, much less lunar landings, space as they say, is history. All this came to mind when I was reading about some famous men in modem history who had the same thing happen to them. The first on my list was Konrad Adenauer, who had been nothing greater than the mayor of Cologne and who, in his late 60's, had decided he had had enough of public service and had gone into retirement. One of his characteristics was that he had never been active in the Nazi movement and thus, was considered by the occupying powers to be of the untainted variety of German. In short order, he was taken out of retirement and became the first chancellor of post-war Western Germany. His second retirement did not come until he was in his 80's, but I often wonder what might have happened if he had not been there to provide a high level of common sense during the years that the German political system was attempting to find its feel while the country was still being occupied by the French, British and Americans. Another man, who comes to mind is Harry Truman. He was the vice-president during F.D. Roosevelt's fourth term of office and his greatest characteristic was his almost total anonymity. Had Roosevelt finished his term, he would have undoubtedly retired and Truman would have been nothing more than a footnote in history. Instead Roosevelt died suddenly and the universal “Harry Who?” which greeted his rise to the presidency was hardly an omen for a successful post-war period when all sorts of momentous decisions had to be made, not to mention those which still had to be made to bring World War II to a successful conclusion. What did Truman do? He simply went down in history as being one of the most noteworthy U.S. presidents of the 20th century. Finally let’s take a look at King Juan Carlos of Spain. Older readers will recall, that as a result of the Spanish civil war of 1936-39, the country was run by a dictator, shuttles and Canadarm. We're a brainy bunch of bipeds here on earth. We can probably come up with something. Maybe we ought to dust off dopey old Ronald Reagan's Star Wars plan - you know, where he was going to fight the evil Russian Empire in outer space? Where's Obi Ben Kenobi when you really need him? Maybe NASA can come up with some fancy technological fly swatter - a RoboDesignated Hitter that can stroke Swift- Tuttle over the galaxy centrefield wall. Maybe their calculations are wrong. Maybe tomorrow, astronomer Duncan Steel will appear on Prime Time news all redfaced to announce that he'd forgotten to “carry the seven” in his addition and that actually Swift-Tuttle will miss the earth by several billion light years. Maybe... Maybe... But on the other hand, maybe not. Maybe they're right. And maybe there's nothing anyone can do. Maybe that's how this particular chapter of eternity gets written. How's that old T.S. Eliot poem go? This is the way the world ends This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a ... Swift-Tuttle. They've got to do something about that dumb name. Francisco Franco. Even dictators are mortal and so it came time for Franco to die. Having lived in Spain for a while during his dictatorship, I was never one of his greatest admirers but I have to give grudging respect for his decision to reinstate the monarchy after his death as having the best chance of providing stability to an inherently unstable country. Franco decided to pass over the father, who was the logical successor to the throne and choose instead the son, Juan Carlos. The latter was, during the early years of the post-Franco era, able to almost single­ handedly put down a revolt and save Spanish democracy. Would the father have had the same success? Probably not. Surely the most vital turning point has to be the decision of the German government in 1917 to take Vladimir Lenin out of seclusion in Switzerland, put him in a sealed train, take him across Europe and inject him into Russia with the intent of bringing down the Czarist government and getting Russia out of the war. What would have happened if Lenin had refused to accept the Germans' invitation to go? After all he was living comfortably in Switzerland and frustrated after decades of trying to get communism off the ground. However, he chose to go and the history of the world is far different in the 20th century than if he had stayed in seclusion. Of such things is the fascinating story of history made. ■ < . TTHave an opinion? Write a letter to the editor The Short of it By Bonnie Gropp____ Forewarned, is forearmed One of the scariest things for me lately is thinking of my teenage daughter going away to college. For the first time, she will be really independent, living more or less on her own, making her own decisions and coping with responsibilities she never had before. She will encounter strangers whom she will either trust or mistrust and can only hope her judgement is accurate. My feelings of concern were amplified recently when I attended a workshop for enrichment students at Blyth Memorial Hall. I was looking for a photo opportunity when I wandered into a self-defense workshop where 20 young females were getting a "quicky" course on how to protect themselves. Now, anyone who knows me, knows well, this is an issue near to my heart, so I stayed a little longer than I had originally planned, to see what I could learn. What has never ceased to amaze me is that every time I attend something of this kind or read an article about it I learn one more thing that shocks me. This was no exception. Instructor Doug Rook said 54 percent of attacks occur on dates and of this number a large percentage of the males involved said they believe that rape is okay "if I paid for it". Paying your own way has nothing to do with feminism anymore but rather self-preservation, apparently. Mr. Rook, who has eight years of experience in training martial arts technique to adults and youths and who is a first degree black belt in karate and third degree brown belt in amis, provided the young students with tips on prevention, for the street, on dates, at parties or while driving. Then they were shown quick to learn, effective ways to defend themselves should prevention fail. It was a wonderful opportunity and a valuable lesson. What troubles me is why it was exclusive to this group. While it is perhaps a sad possibility that we may have to fight violence by fighting back, it is a strong one. Though the problem of violence is obviously not exclusive to women, it is for me, as a mother, the one that concerns me most. I believe that every woman needs to know, first, how to avoid situations which will put her in a dangerous or confrontational position. Every woman needs to be told what to do should she inadvertently find herself in such a position. Every woman needs to feel confident shecan deal with the situation when she finds herself face to face with it. Personally, I would like to see self-defense courses become part of a mandatory physical education program at school, with qualified instructors like Mr. Rook in charge, beginning as early as the latter grades of elementary school. I would be more than willing to pay any extra costs it would incur, to see that my daughters are given a little better edge in a world that still has a long way to go. The federal goverment has addressed the concern designating Dec. 6 as a National Day of Remembrance and Action on Violence Against Women in recognition of the 1989 deaths of 14 young women at Iicole Polytechnique in Montreal. The day is a time to remember and show our compassion and sympathy for all women, who have been victims of violence. It is a day for us to consider what needs to be done and if there is any solution to the ongoing threat of violence against women, which seems to be thriving in our increasingly malevolent society. Being forearmed may be a first step.