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The Citizen, 1991-08-07, Page 14PAGE 14. THE CITIZEN, WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 7,1991. Gazing into the crystal hall Throughout history, humans have always wanted to know what the future holds. Where will we be? What will happen to us? What will the weather be? But gazing into the future from ancient times to the present is, at best, a strange occupation. In ancient Rome, Julius Caesar had the soothsayers look at the entrails of chickens for clues to what the future held. Today, people still go to fortune tellers to get their tea leaves read or tarot cards explained, and the daily horoscope is still a very popular feature in daily newspapers. But if you really could find out the future, would you pay any attention to it? After all, Caesar was told to beware of the Ides of March, but he still died with several knives in his back. As a profession today, future gazing still falls somewhere in between science and voo doo. Many companies employ legions of economists to help predict marketing trends, but many times they’re better at telling us what happened, than what will happen. Farmers, too, rely of prognostigators to predict the weather, or the direction of the markets or upcoming consumer demands so they can tailor their production to meet the changing needs. So what is the future of agriculture and how will that affect the incomes, social structures and the well-being of our community in Huron county? Former agricultural representative Don Pullen is currently working on such a study for the county, so I concentrate this week on an overview given by highly respected Canadian “futurist” Lloyd Quantz at a recent conference sponsored by the Ontario ministry of agriculture and food. But hang onto your hats. Quantz delivered a real dose of reality that was, as far as I could tell, unreported by most of the media, so if you’re feeling a bit down at this point, you may want to tum to the church news. Quantz, an economist by training, heads up his own firm called AgriTrends Research Inc. of Calgary. He says the Canadian economy in the next decade will approach the 1920 to 1940 period (remember the dirty ’30’s) with Canada only having a fair chance of making the transition from a fringe, isolated economy to a world integrated player and farmers will require a “new deal” to service and eventually prosper in the next decade. We should be on the lookout for eight trends that will reshape Ontario in the 1990s. In his first trend he predicts that although the world population grows by over 80 million a year, our agriculture products will both be too expensive and unfamiliar to them. Food sales potential will be in Asia, but only through highly complex barter arrangements for technology and aid. Low population growth in Canada, the result of the “baby bust,” is a second trend that Quantz says will cause unprecedented distortions in production and consumption of food, but will open up niche markets to those producing quality, ethical food for the aging market. The third trend may be good news for the agriculture sector, as it recovers from a down wave of productivity and innovation because of a massive economic adjustment, and a debt crises of international scale. As a fourth trend, Quantz sees a commodity price erosion as new technology comes forward (fibre optic telephone lines have made copper obsolete) based on biotechnology and genetic manipulation, which will produce new pest resistant varieties requiring less fertilizer. Farmers will make more money from specialization diversity than from increased efficiency. Farmers will see, as another trend, the growth of non-traditional activities in rural areas that will require extensive labour and capital adjustment. While traditional export markets languish, farm incomes will be bolstered by new opportunities in recreation, tourism, environmental services, specialized producer and consumer services, and professional practice (Blyth is already leading the pack with attractions like the Centre for the Ans, the Thresherman’s reunion and the Rutabaga Festival). A sixth trend Quantz predicts will see farmers move away from commodity-specific orientation to marketing and management clusters within and across commodity groups. Most will be owner service driven, rather than lobby driven as new markets, finances and technology become dominant survival factors. This will inspire more local organizations and producer/processor partnerships. Farmers will be told how to look after their land in another trend, as urban people have the greater political power and the final say on environmental controls on land, water, air, and xouu. dui ^uamz. »«ys, those city people will be willing to pay those additional costs of production. New product opportunities from upgraded by-products will be created by the three “Rs” of the environment —reuse, recycle and reuse. And finally, agriculture policy formation will be increasingly complex and globally driven, with domestic policies frequently influenced by trade issues and international development objectives. There will still be food shortages in high population growth areas, but domestic food surpluses will be seen by voters as proof that agriculture has little to complain about. Consumer-sensitive, promotion-oriented marketing boards will survive but supply controls will be eroded as global food trade issues are resolved (better unload that milk quota while the price is still high). Quantz says that it will be difficult to maintain Canadian policies which protect high cost industries against the more competitive export markets. The reality of the situation is that opeti markets will be relied upon for allocating profits and resources —we haven’t found a substitute yet, he says. Whether you agree or not with Quantz's crystal ball, gazing, we have already witnessed some of his predictions, and if only a small percentage of his predictions are true, we know that some profound changes are coming to our area. Beef Carcass competiton deadline set for Aug. 16 BY JOHN BANCROFT FARM MANAGEMENT SPECIALIST FOR HURON COUNTY With the Canadian Beef Grading System to be revised in 1992, it is important that beef producers gain a good understanding of the pro­ posed new system. Huron County beef producers are invited to partic­ ipate in the Huron County Beef Carcass Competition. The Competition has two objec­ tives: 1. To provide a practical opportu­ nity for Huron County beef produc­ ers to gain a better understanding of the proposed new beef grading scheduled to start January 1, 1992. Cattle sales heavy last week at Brussels Sales at Brussels Livestock for the week ending August 2 were: slaughter cattle, 556; cows, 135; veal calves, 127; lambs and goats, 93; pigs, 124. There were 414 steers on offer selling from $84.41 to $88.20 to the high of $94.75. One steer con­ signed by Dennis Robinson, Gad- shill weighed 1240 lbs. and sold for $94.50. Fourteen steers consigned by Gerald Geisel, Elmira averaging 1434 lbs. sold for $88.08 to the high of $94.75. Forty-four steers consigned by W. B. Pletch Co. Ltd., Rockwood averaged 1143 lbs. and sold for $87.99 to the high of $93. Twenty­ eight steers consigned by Maple Emblem Farms, Dungannon aver­ aged 1248 lbs. and sold for $87.89 to the high of $94.25. Four steers consigned by Bill Sproul, Auburn averaging 1373 lbs. sold for $87.50. Twenty steers consigned by George Blake, Brussels averaging 1337 lbs. sold for $87.24 to the high of $89.50. Sixteen steers consigned by Mur­ ray Forbes, Clinton averaged 1246 lbs. and sold for $86.45 to the high of $87.30. Seventeen steers con­ signed by Ken and Mary B lac kier, St. Marys averaging 1284 lbs. sold for $86.30 to the high of $88.80. Eighteen steers consigned by Cun­ ningham Farms, Lucan averaging 1364 lbs. sold for $85.88 to the high of $87.50. Twelve steers consigned by Glen Johnston, Bluevale averaging 1328 lbs. sold for $85.80 to the high of $88.40. Fourteen steers consigned by Maple Ridge Farms, Brussels averaging 1229 lbs. sold for $85.74 to the high of $86.40. Twenty-two steers consigned by Martin Metske, Lucknow averaging 1205 lbs. sold for $84.94 to the high of $86.90. Six steers consigned by Tom Helm, Lucknow averaging 1270 lbs. sold for $84.90 to the high of $88.50. Twenty steers consigned by Murray Shiell, Wingham averaging 1290 lbs. sold for $84.43 to the high of $87.75. Thirteen steers con­ signed by Dale Taylor, Creemore, averaging 1398 lbs. sold for $79.28 to the high of $85.90. There were 142 heifers on offer selling from $78.32 to $87.25 to the high of $94.25. Seven heifers consigned by Dennis Robinson, Gadshill averaging 1134 lbs. sold for $88.48 to the high of $90.10. Six heifers consigned by Frank Nigh, Seaforth averaging 1068 lbs. sold for $87.96 to the high of $94.25. Four heifers consigned by Gor­ don Daer, Auburn averaging 1160 lbs. sold for $86.78 to the high of $87.25. Two heifers consigned by Greg Hackett, Lucknow averaged 1040 lbs. and sold for $85. Four heifers consigned by Lome Hack­ ett, Lucknow averaged 1095 lbs. and sold for $84.81 to the high of $85.30. Two heifers consigned by George Roney, Staffa averaging 1145 lbs. sold for $84.50. Fourteen heifers consigned by Jim Nichols, Mitchell averaging 1216 lbs., sold for $82.37 to the high of $89.30. Eight heifers consigned by Claire Cox, Bayfield averaging 1209 lbs. sold for $82.62 to the high of $84.10. Three heifers consigned by Don Burnett, Gowanstown averaging 1203 lbs. sold for $81.75 to the high of $82.80. Two heifers con­ signed by Sylvia Lee, Brussels averaging 990 lbs., sold for $79.93 to the high of $80.50. Six heifers consigned by Frank Roney, Staffa averaging 1268 lbs., sold for $79.05 to the high of $84.50. There were 135 cows on offer selling from $56.11 to $62.75 to the high of $70. Five cows consigned by Wray McConnell, Kincardine averaged 1218 lbs. and sold for $69.07 to the high of $65.75. Two cows con­ signed by Don Dodds, Seaforth Continued on page 19. 2. To create consumer awareness of the quality and the various grades of beef that can be pur­ chased. In order to have animals and car­ casses to view, a Carcass Competi­ tion has been set up. Huron County beef producers are invited to enter either a market heifer or market steer. These are to be delivered to the Brussels Stockyards on Wednesday, September 11. That evening producers will have an opportunity to evaluate all the ani­ mals on a live basis. All of the ani­ mals will be slaughtered and graded by both the old and new grading systems. Pictures will be taken of the live animal and its car­ cass. On September 25 in Seaforth a Carcass Evaluation Meeting will be held. The grading system will be reviewed along with the pictures of the live animals and their carcasses. For the Carcass Competition, prize money of $200, $100, $75, $50 and $25 will be awarded for each class of market steers and market heifers. Special prizes of $200 and $100 will be presented for the top two home bred animals. Prize winners will be determined using the proposed new grading system. The Competition is being orga­ nized by the Huron County Beef Improvement Association, the Seaforth Agricultural Society and the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture & Food in Clinton. To enter the Competition, or to get information, contact John Bancroft at the Clin­ ton OMAF office at 482-3428 or 1- 800-265-5170. The deadline for entries is Friday, August 16. VEAL PRODUCERS CONSIDER THE FACTS ABOUT SELLING YOUR VEAL AT THE ONTARIO LIVESTOCK EXCHANGE WATERLOO, ONTARIO SALES EVERY TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY 12:00 NOON FACT: Large market, with modern penning reduces bruising and shrinkage. FACT: Every producer or trucker, delivering 10 calves or more, Is guaranteed a separate pen further reducing stress. FACT: Strong buyer support from many packing houses giving you the competition you deserve. FACT: Guaranteed same day payment for your veal. FACT: Bonded & Government inspected scales with NO pencil shrink. FACT: Your calves sell early In the week so they are not held over the weekend before slaughter, which means Buyers will pay more. CALL US AT (519) 884-2082 FOR FURTHER MARKET INFORMATION " WERE HERE TO HELP" LARGE SLAUGHTER COW MARKET ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BUYERS FROM THE UNITED STATES AND QUEBEC AND SEVERAL LARGE ONTARIO COW PACKING PLANTS JUST MINUTES FROM OUR YARDS