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8 THE RURAL VOICE
GRAIN MARKETS
February 17— Grain markets started
the year with some enthusiasm, which
quickly dissipated after the January 13
USDA report. In the first two weeks
of January, producers in Ontario sold a
considerable quantity of corn and
soys. But since the USDA report
farmer activity has been very limited.
CORN
Demand for corn has been slow
through January and February, with
basis levels at many elevators drop-
ping to 80 cents over March futures.
However, in the past few days
these levels have started to improve,
even though demand has not picked
up to any great extent. When I'm
talking about demand, I'm actually
talking about new purchases by feed
mills, etc., not necessarily actual
usage. My feeling is that usage is
fairly good, especially considering the
short crop of 1988. We must keep in
mind that processors, who export a
large portion of their products, are
using U.S. corn.
The feeling of some in the industry
is one of slight optimism for basis
improvement in the spring.
Futures have dropped 30 cents a
bushel on old -crop corn with futures
recovering 9 cents in the past two
days. We appear ready to start into a
so-called "Spring Rally" in futures
which, barring drought problems
this summer, may provide a pricing
opportunity for producers.
New -crop corn activity has been
very quiet, with elevator basis levels at
35 to 40 cents over December futures.
I don't look for improvement in new -
crop basis unless a summer drought
occurs.
SOYBEANS
The soy market has been very
quiet since the USDA report in
January, with futures dropping almost
$1.00 a bushel on old crop. Basis
levels in Ontario have dropped slightly
but, considering the strength of the
Canadian dollar, basis levels are very
strong. This is because of the reluc-
tance of producers to sell coupled with
fairly brisk demand by the crushers in
Ontario. This scenario could change
in the spring when vessels can deliver
larger supplies of soys.
Old -crop basis levels are sitting at
85 cents over market futures and new -
crop soy basis ranges from 70 cents to
80 cents over November futures.
Again, spring may provide a good
pricing opportunity for producers.
The feed grain market has dropped
over the past month, with Western
barley taking the brunt of it. Western
barley is trading in the $140 to $142
range with Western oats still trading
over $180/MT. Western oats will be
taken out of the control of the Wheat
Board as of August 1. What this
means is a dropping of the two -price
system in regard to export and milling
oats versus feed oats. All oats will be
traded on the same basis, discounts for
lower grades being the only deviation.
Ontario barley is trading in the
$145/MT range, a premium to West -
em product. I do feel Western barley
prices will pick up from these levels.
Overall, we've seen quite a
shakeout in all grain markets, which is
typical of the February period. We are
now looking for some strengthening
into the spring, which may provide a
good pricing opportunity.°
This information is taken from
sources believed reliable, but accuracy
and completeness are not guaranteed.
Dave Gordon is a grain merchandiser
with London Agricultural Commodi-
ties, Inc. in Hyde Park, Ont., 519-
473-9333 or 1-800-265-1885.