The Rural Voice, 1999-11, Page 35Grain Markets
$10 less than corn prices.
What an interesting harvest we've
had in Ontario this year. Soybean
harvest started before Labour Day to
the north of London while central and
eastern Ontario still have many acres
to go. In fact corn harvest in eastern
Ontario may be finished ahead of soy
harvest. South of highway 401 along
Lake Erie, soybean and corn yields
have been quite variable and
generally disappointing. However,
yields north and east of London have
been consistently good with many
160-200 bushel yields reported in
corn.
But, there is one common
. denominator — producers are not
selling except in those cases where
storage cannot be found. Because of
this corn basis levels have
strengthened in the southwestern part
of Ontario enough to allow Michigan
corn to come in to take up some
space. Producers need to take a hard
look at forward selling both corn and
soybeans for winter shipments
because I think producers will sell
grain, especially corn, before the end
of the year and basis could get
weaker at that time.
In the U.S. producers have been
using the deficiency payment instead
of the loan program which would
keep grain off the market for several
months. By taking the deficiency
payment, U.S. producers still have
corn and soybeans to sell and they are
waiting (hoping?) for the futures
market to gain some strength. This
fact alone will keep futures prices,
especially corn, from making any
huge gains. I suspect futures prices
will start out much like last year
when the good carry that the market
exhibited disappeared as the year
progressed. It will take production
problems somewhere in the world or
unexpected demand to stop this trend.
Without any new or unexpected
factors, prices don't have a
particularly strong outlook. Producers
need to assess their options and take
some action. Do not just sit back.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc:, Hyde Park, 519-473-9333.
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NOVEMBER 1999 31