The Rural Voice, 1998-09, Page 21Grain Markets
more impact than western grains right
now. The Ontario barley and oat crops
were generally of good quality and
some feed users are willing to
consider using Ontario grains. Ontario
barley is selling for $100 to $105
while milling quality oats arc trading
for $125 to $130 with lower quality
feed oats selling for $105/mt. As you
can see, barley prices are competitive
to corn prices, but as we get into
harvest with lower corn prices, barley
prices will have to drop if use is to be
encouraged.
I started out by talking about the
direction of grain prices and .I will
expand on it. I know producers are
disappointed by the fact that prices
have slipped almost without a break
since last fall, but reality has to set in.
You have had several opportunities to
sell grain in the past two years, when
the memory of the abberation of
1996's high prices provided a great
opportunity to forward sell two years'
production. Simply put, the futures
market was overdone on the upside
just as I believe it will be overdone on
the downside this fall. In 1986, corn
futures price dipped to $1.42 and
didn't rebound quickly because of
extremely high corn stocks and it took
the 1988 drought to move prices. At
the same time, soybean futures fell to
about $4.70 but didn't hold this low
for very long. Now that the U.S.
government has gotten out of support
programs to some extent, the market
is more volatile and production will
be directed more by price than by
what the government wants planted.
As a result, I think prices will drop
sharply this fall, but will rebound
back to today's levels of $2.10 to
$2.15 for corn and $5.30 to $5.50 for
soybeans.
Producers must attempt to avoid
selling when the market is at the
bottom if at all possible, but don't
look for a pot of gold at the end of the
rainbow. Grain prices are going to
place producers in a survival mode
until some factor, unknown to us
today, kicks in to move markets
higher. But, don't look for any bright
signs in the next few months.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., Ilyde Park, 519-473-9333.
IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING SELLING OR
PURCHASING PROPERTY...
Give Mason a call at
Mason Bailey Real Estate Ltd.
- Clinton -
482-9371
Full time promoter of Huron County Farm,
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497 Main Street South
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Norris Peever (Goderich) 524-6105
Bob McNaughton (Seaforth) 527-1571
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Barb Worden (Staffa) 345-2777
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Joe Uniac (Mitchell) 348-9012
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L 1 M ITE D
SEPTEMBER 1998 17