The Rural Voice, 1998-02, Page 18BODMIN
SWINE GENETICS
• BOARS • GILTS
All Stock Delivered
Boar Store - viewing
area located just east
of Belgrave
RR #5, Brussels, Ont. NOG 1H0
OFFICE
Phone: 519-887-9206
Fax: 519-887-9880
(Evenings)
Phil Smith 519-764-2898
Rick Beunen 519-631-2341
NEW PRODUCTS
1. Plastic Rolls 1/8 Inch for barn
lining.
Sizes 2 feet x 100 feet
3 feet x 100 feet
4 feet x 100 feet
2. Galvanized Flat Bar.
Supports for plastic flooring.
Custom cut.
3. Pre -Galvanized Flat Top Woven
Wire Flooring
Weaner Flooring
Opening 3/8 x 2 inches long
1/4 inch material weight 4.3 lbs.
per square foot.
Farrowing,
Finishing,
Dry Sow Flooring.
Opening 3/8 x 2 inches long
5/16 material weight 5.8 lbs.
per square foot.
4. White Extruded Plastic Sheeting.
Std. sizes # 4 feet wide, 8 feet,
10 feet, 12 feet long. Thickness.
3/32,1/8, 3/16, 7/32,1/4, 3/8, ow
1/2 inch. ItoP
P O Box 1, Godench, Ontario N7A 3Y5
(519) 524-2082 • FAX (519) 524-1091
14 THE RURAL VOICE
Grain Markets
USDA drops
a bombshell
The Asian financial woes have
certainly impacted world markets
from commodities to financials
because of the devaluation of the
Asian currencies. These countries
cannot afford to buy North American
grain or meat, so we're getting a
double whammy — lower grain
prices and lower livestock prices.
However, the USDA in its last
report, lowered the projected corn
carryover by 109 million bushels —
an absolute surprise to most analysts.
The USDA based the increased feed
usage on a smaller than expected
December 1 corn stocks figure. But,
with weak livestock prices, will we
sustain the usage through the last
half of this crop year?
Soybean prices have also faltered
lately and the market action after the
USDA report wasn't outstanding
with a huge South American crop
staring us in the face. The USDA
reduced the crop size slightly but did
not change the demand side of the
equation, so soybean prices will
have a problem keeping pace with
corn.
CORN
Corn prices declined over the past
month with most analysts thinking
that the USDA would have to reduce
usage and increase the1998
carryover to more than one billion
bushels. However, the USDA
dropped somewhat of a bomb by
reducing the carryover to 840
million bushels from 953 million.
Along the way, they increased
domestic feed consumption by 200
million bushels based on the
December 1, 1997 corn stocks and
assumed disappearance. It appears
they then extrapolated this usage
over the following nine months,
which is fine in theory, but if the
Asian countries cannot afford to buy
North American meat, there should
eventually be a reduction in
livestock numbers resulting in Tess
corn demand later in the year.
In Ontario, basis levels have
weakened in Canadian funds but are
still quite strong considering the
amount of corn we have on hand and
the quantities that are still coming in
from Michigan. Ontario producers,
especially those with on-farm
storage, have been reluctant to sell
into falling cash prices, but
eventually this corn will come to
market. Hopefully, there will be
some demand when this selling
starts. If we are to expect strong
basis levels in the late spring and
summer, we need to get down to
export levels in the short term.
Otherwise, basis levels will be
stagnant until we use up the excess
that is currently in the province.
Eastern Ontario is the one area of the
province that will be short corn, but
by mid-April, water corn can move
into Cardinal or Quebec terminals
from Toledo.
SOYBEANS
The USDA made only small
changes in the latest supply/demand
report. Ending stocks were pegged
at 250 million bushels, down five
million from the last report. The
biggest change came from South
America where the Brazilian crop
was increased to 30 million tonnes.
With the large soybean crop in South
America, any strength will likely
have to come on the coattails of corn
prices and if the crop gets larger,
watch out.
In Ontario, cash prices have held
fairly well because of the weak
Canadian dollar, and in fact basis
levels have held quite well in U.S.
funds. The Canadian dollar seems to
be trying to put in a bottom, but
keeps getting battered by the Asian
economic problem. In the longer
term, I do think that our dollar will
start to strengthen and result in a
lower soybean basis.
Cash prices for old crop soys are
still over $9/bu and this is still a
good price even though we have
seen higher prices earlier in the
season. Keep in mind that, with
fewer acres of wheat planted in the
U.S., more soybean acres are