The Rural Voice, 1998-02, Page 12Jim Eccles,
Dave Taylor & Carl Sadler
Forest Management Technicians
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R.R.#2, Durham, ON NOG IRO
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(519) 371-7041
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8 THE RURAL VOICE
Robert Mercer
The population explosion fizzles
One of the reasons I have been
optimistic about the long- term
prospects for farming has been due to
the potential for world population
growth, increases in income and thus
the increased
demand for food
off less and less
good farm land.
I must now
revise that
outlook. The
United Nations
has shattered and
torn up that
scenario with its
recently
published 1996
Revisions of
"World
Population
Prospects".
According to the
UN, fertility rates are tumbling after
near 30 years of persistent rise. What
was once an explosion in fertility
rates (roughly expressed as the
number of children per woman in her
lifetime) is now just an aftershock
falling to less than the replacement
rate in many developed and
undeveloped countries.
The falling fertility rate is not
really new news to those following
population trends, what is new to me
is the longer-term interpretation that
shows that although numbers in total
are increasing, in about 30 years they
will start to drop and the proportion
of old to young will increase further.
The relentless world population
growth forecast by so many agencies
and incorporated into so many
national and international policies
(including environmental concerns
such as global warming) is just not
correct if current trends continue.
In a nutshell the UN suggests that
the number of potential mothers will
be much lower than previously
anticipated. The number today was
set two to three decades ago and what
is happening today with fewer
children per couple, is that it will be
impossible to maintain population
levels without immigration.
On a global scale the UN says the
average fertility rate is 2.8. In the
1950/55 period it was five, in the
70%75 period it dropped to four, by
90/95 it was three and currently
stands at 2.8. This is not far from the
statistical 2.1 figure needed to
maintain population levels.
Some of the figures from the report
indicate just how far and fast the
change has been. Italy for instance
has the lowest fertility rate at 1.2.
European fertility rates average 1.4,
the same as Japan and Russia.
In Bangladesh the fertility rate in
1955 was 6.2, just 10 years later it is
reported at 3.4. There are 19 less-
developed countries where the
fertility rate is less than replacement
and these include China, Cuba and
Thailand. The report also suggests
that Brazil may soon join the fizzle in
fertility rates.
This approaching shift in
population dynamics will not only
affect the food chain demand, it can
also radically alter the geopolitical
strengths and dynamics. For instance
in 1950 the "West" held 32 per cent
of the world's population. That figure
is now about 20 per cent and by 2050
it could drop to 11 - 12 per cent
depending on these fertility rates.
What does this do to the global
balance of powers and influences?
What does it do to consumer demand
projections? And of direct interest to
Canada what does it suggest about the
ability to service national debt
accumulated by earlier generations?
There are many factors
contributing to lower fertility rates,
one of which is global urbanization.
Also women are better educated, there
is legal abortion, better incomes,
contraception (including morning -
after pills), later marriages, and the
greater acceptance of homosexuality.
I think what this report does is to
change attitudes about the future. It
calls for no radical changes down on
the farm, it only points out the need to
be a little bit more cautious about
long term planning and food demand
expectations.0
Robert Mercer was editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter and a farm
commentator in Ontario for 25 years.