The Rural Voice, 1996-10, Page 18KMM FARM DRAINAGE
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14 THE RURAL VOICE
Grain Markets
As you may have gathered, I am
friendly to oilseed prices and the only
fly in the ointment could be the South
American soybean crop, but to have
much effect on higher prices, the crop
would have to be at least 15 per cent
larger than last year, a very tall order.
FEEDGRAINS
Western Canada is harvesting
large barley and wheat crops right
now and if our transportation system
allows, Ontario will begin to see new
crop supplies arrive soon. When corn
prices were high, western feedgrain
prices were relatively low. Lately,
western grain prices have not dropped
as much as corn prices have and are
not competitive. However, there will
be an evening -out of feed grain prices
and I think they will become quite
interchangeable in the feed trade.
Now a few thoughts about future
corn and soybean prices. As you now
know, the fundamentals of the
oilseeds markets should continue to
push prices higher. In fact, soybean
futures are acting much like the corn
market did one year ago when futures
prices held right through September
and actually rose in October.
The corn market, however, will not
likely see the strength of early 1996
because of the availability of other feed
grains. I do feel that corn prices will
remain strong relative to most of the
past years, but the return for storing
will not be as great as it was last year. I
have watched producers for several
years and the predominant mind set is
to remember only the last 12 months.
Quite often, after feeling they made a
marketing mistake one year, they are
determined to do the opposite the next
year. Just because you sold too early
last year and missed the big summer
rally, it doesn't mean you shouldn't
sell early this year. The price gains
from harvest lows likely won't be as
great as last year's, so once you've
seen basis gains that tell you the
market wants corn, sell well into it.
Prices should remain profitable for the
next year and you should begin to look
ahead to marketing your 1997
production. Finally, let's hope for good
harvest weather and be sure to take
care of the grain once it's in the bin.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., Ilyde Park, 419-473-9333.