The Rural Voice, 1996-10, Page 17Grain Markets
still believe the crop is closer to 9
billion, the USDA took a middle of
the road attitude until the September
11 rcport when they raised their
estimate to 8.8 billion.
The early harvest has seen very
good yields but one must remember
that this was the earliest planted corn
and the furthest advanced. The corn
that will be harvested in later October
will be the corn that was planted in
late May and June and is expected to
be less than optimum.
Futures prices are on the defensive
because there is a large supply of
other feed grains in the world. Last
year, corn stood alone because there
wasn't an adequate supply of any re-
placement fecdstuffs. High feed grain
prices have rectified this situation
quickly at the expense of oilseed.
SOPS
In Ontario, old -crop soybeans are
still coming to market and, unlike the
corn market, old -crop and new -crop
prices stayed relatively close together.
The yields of the earliest harvested
soybeans are a little disappointing and
I really don't think yields will get
much better since the crop has already
gone through a late planting, wet
weather, dry weather and cool
weather. The exception may be in
eastern Ontario.
On September 11, USDA lowered
the U.S. production estimate to 2.27
billion bushels which would normally
be considered a large crop. However,
the high price of feed grains compared
to oilseeds encouraged a worldwide
move away from oilseed planting in
1996 which is critical because oilseed
stocks in the world are near all-time
lows. Now add in the word China. It is
thought that China will need to import
about one million tonnes of soymeal
this year, only two years after export-
ing well over one million tonnes. Does
this sound familiar? Well, just last
year China became one of the major
buyers of U.S. corn only two years
after being one of the world's largest
corn exporters. Many skeptics will tell
you that the export market is fickle
and I won't deny that, but since we are
in a global market, export demand will
rule for the next few months.
Domestically, poultry and pork
production are increasing again after a
slight drop during the past summer.
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OCTOBER 1996 13