The Rural Voice, 1995-07, Page 21(ALMAR)
corn, price -wise. With wheat trading
over $200/mt and western barley over
$160/mt and gaining strength, it
doesn't appear that either will fit into
feed formulations anytime soon.
Ontario barley is selling for about
$140 at the bin while a new crop
value should be in the $115-$120
area. Because of the shortage of feed
wheat, there is little competition for
corn in the feed market this year.
Add to this a 50 per cent increase in
corn exports this year and a poor -
looking wheat crop throughout most
of North America and you begin to
get an idea of why corn prices have
strengthened.
Here in Ontario, we are pretty
fortunate to see crops in reasonably
good shape. Sure, we could use some
rain, but all in all, we are ahead of
most of the U.S. and prairies in crop
progress.
In markets, there are probabilities
and possibilities as well as greed and
fear. Let's deal with these for a
moment. Greed on the part of seller
and fear on the part of users make
prices go up. Usually the greedy one
loses. Prices tend to go down when
sellers are gripped by fear and users
get greedy. These are human feelings
that need to be controlled when one is
marketing grain. Usually, the greedy
side loses out in both cases.
Probability and possibility also
need to be addressed. Pragmatic
people deal with probabilities while
dreamers deal in possibilities. I've
already heard of advisors who think
December corn futures will reach
$3.75. While this is entirely possible,
it is not very probable given the
circumstances we have today. The
other day, a producer asked me if old
crop corn was going to reach $5/bu.
My reply was that is possible but the
probability is very low, so don't hold
your breath waiting for the price to
arrive soon.
When the supply of a crop or
product appears to be in short supply,
prices will rise to ration usage. This
doesn't happen quickly when we are
dealing with a crop that is only
produced once a year. Personally, I
am friendly to corn prices over the
next few months because I don't
Grain Markets
think prices have risen to a point
where rationing has taken place. The
U.S. dollar is still quite weak versus
the yen, industrial demand is growing
in North America and demand by the
feed manufacturers has not been
stemmed yet. Given these factors,
new crop corn prices could rise
another 20 or 30 cents. Soybeans
could follow a similar path but to a
lesser extent than corn and wheat.
Another point to remember is that
prices only need to rise to ration one
crop. You can be assured that the
U.S. farmer will respond by growing
corn fencerow to fencerow in 1996.
Sometime this year, producers will
have the opportunity to sell two or
three crops profitably. Remember, a
short crop has a long price tail. Don't
get caught next year sliding down the
tail.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., II yde Park, 519-473-9333.
TOP DRY
HOW DOES THE
G. S. I. SYSTEM WORK?
1) Grain is loaded into the upper chamber
of the bin, and dried as a batch
2) When the grain is dry, the burner
automatically shuts off
3) The operator lowers the dump chutes
with a winch, and the grain falls to the
lower part of the bin for cooling/storage
4) The dump chutes are cranked closed
and another batch is loading into the
drying chamber
WHY IS A TOP DRY A BETTER INVESTMENT
THAN A STIRRING MACHINE?
1) LOWER OPERATING COSTS
• Uses much less fuel because it recycles cooling air through
the drying zone
' No gear boxes, motors, or bearings inside the bin
* 100% galvanized construction inside and outside
2) FASTER DRYING
* 2 to 3 times faster per horsepower than a stirring machine
because of lower grain depth (30")
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR A FREE ESTIMATE, CALL TODAY
GRAIN SYSTEMS LTD.
244 Wellington St. W., Unit B,
Exeter, Ontario NOM 1S2
(519) 235-1919 / Fax: (519) 235-2562
JULY 1995 17