The Rural Voice, 1993-05, Page 14"Our experience
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92 YEARS' EXPERIENCE
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10 THE RURAL VOICE
Robert Mercer
Global warming — Global cooling — Which?
At the end of March I attended a
special symposium discussing
soybeans in Canada over the last 100
years. However, one of the most
interesting pre-
sentations was
looking forward
and discussed
weather, a topic
that is always of
interest to the
farm commu-
nity.
Dr. Tim Ball
from the Univ-
ersity of Winni-
peg, who is a
professor of Cli-
matology, took a
look at long
term weather
patterns and basically said that what
we are experiencing today is
increased variability within stable
limits of weather extremes. It is not
abnormal.
On the subject of global warming
Dr. Ball said that the effect of the
large volcanic eruption at Mt. Pinatu-
bo in the Philippines last year was
such that it offset any influence of
global warming. That single giant
eruption was the cause of a two -deg-
ree cooling around the globe over the
12 -month period following the erup-
tion. What it effectively did in 1992
was to cause a 30 -degree-day drop in
temperature, and an increase in cloud
cover. For 1993 Dr. Ball expects half
of the volcanic dust in the atmos-
phere to be lost, and that this year the
effect will be to lower the extreme by
15 degree days below normal, or only
half as bad as last year. So, Dr. Ball
says, there will be more sunlight and
it will be warmer than in 1992.
Another side effect of the volcanic
eruption from the dust is the sulphur
pumped into the air. When combined
with moisture the coloured droplets
filtered out the yellow rays of the
sun, and this is detrimental to growth
and photosynthesis, especially for
soybeans.
He also spoke very directly over
the concern being expressed about a
hole in the ozone layer. First of all,
he said there is no hole. It is thinner,
just three per cent thinner, whereas
the normal variability that has been
measured in ozone is in the range of
15 per cent. The ozone problem is
self-correcting, according to Dr. Ball.
In terms of the weather outlook he
suggests that the most important
factor to watch this year will be the
position of the jet stream. So far the
polar jet stream has been lower
(further south) than normal. This
tends to suggest lower temperatures
than might otherwise be expected.
This year there is another volcano
to watch, also in the Philippines. In
this case the volcano is bulging on
the side, so although the eruption
may be significant, if it does not blast
upward, but rather sideways, the ash
will not go directly into the higher
atmosphere and will therefore not
have such an effect on weather.
When listening or reading about
weather phenomena Dr. Ball cautions
the public over the idea that any one
aspect — such as the EI Nitio — has
the answer to future weather patterns.
The subject is so complex and inter-
related that it is very difficult to make
any reliable forecasts or projections.
The single most important aspect to
Dr. Ball is "water vapour" or clouds.
This is far more important than the
amount of CO2 in the air with respect
to temperature and the global warm-
ing effect. He also noted that for all
the research that has gone into global
warming to prove the temperatures
have gone up 0.5°C, it now appears
as if 0.4°C of that change can be
accounted for by the encroachment of
cities to, and past, the spots where
temperature is and has been measur-
ed. Cities create their own warmth
and this has affected the temperature
readings as cities have spread out and
around the meteorological offices
where temperatures have been
recorded for the last 50 to 80 years.
As a closing comment, Dr. Ball
noted in his talk that it was only in
1976 that researchers were calling for
global cooling and the next ice age,
which Dr. Ball sees coming, but not
for 23,000 years!0
Robert Mercer is editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter, a weekly
commodity and policy advisory letter
from Goodwood, Ontario LOC 1A0.