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The Rural Voice, 1993-04, Page 16"Our experience assures lower cost water wells" 92 YEARS' EXPERIENCE Member of Canadian and Ontario Water Well Associations • Farm • Industrial • Suburban • Municipal Licensed by the Ministry of the Environment DAVIDSON WELL DRILLING LTD. WINGHAM Serving Ontario Since 1900 519-357-1960 WINGHAM 519-886-2761 WATERLOO Save Time, Trucking & Money Let our "LI'L SHAKER" Portable Seed Cleaner Clean & Treat Your Grain For Seed COOK'S PORTABLE SEED CLEANING Owen Sound 519-371-0605 "Yes, We Can Come To Your Farm" 12 THE RURAL VOICE Robert Mercer Debt, the unifying silence of NDP politics Frustration with the lack of adequate income from farming is driving produ- cers to seek not only other types of in- come, but better programs from governments. These programs cost money and often do not accomplish any- thing more than to maintain the status quo in pol- icy and market performance. Frustration possibly rates highest in Sask- atchewan. Farm- ing is a major segment of their province's gross domestic product. In 1992 for instance, there were 154 farm bankruptcies in Canada categorized as field crop enterprises. Of these 113 were in Saskatchewan. In Saskatchewan agriculture drives the provincial economy. It is driving it into the red. In March Canada's three NDP pro- vincial leaders got together to discuss their common cause. It wasn't a social agenda — it was debt. As the predict- ions of the C.D. Howe Institute said earlier in the year, Canada is at "the brink of a financial crisis". This is nowhere truer than in Saskatchewan. What happens there will affect you and me. Saskatchewan has less than one mil- lion population and is a province of de- clining population and no growth. It is dependent upon agriculture and agricul- tural service industries for a major por- tion of its tax base. This base is eroding faster than prairie soil in a dust storm. The province is faced with a $15 billion debt and an annual deficit of $517 mil- lion. Provincial Premier Roy Roman - ow says, (even as an NDP Socialist leader) he must cut services and raise taxes. In fact he is even talking in terms of "amputating" whole depart- ments and programs. The province's health care and finances are in a state of terminal sickness — debt cancer. The crunch is coming one way or another and to watch how it is handled will be an early warning of what to expect in Ontario. Not long ago Saskatchewan could spread its debt over 150 financial insti- tutions, but since some downgrading of its credit rating Saskatchewan today has only 25 sources of money. What this means is that any further downgrading of that province's debt rating would leave it with only a few banks or insti- tutions from which to borrow to finance the accumulating debt. When that hap- pens the banks run the province, not the politicians. Which is the worst enemy? However such a move would, when and if it occurs, produce a ripple effect through other provinces and even federally. Ontario would likely be the next in line for down grading especially if it does not get its spending in order by the time of the next provincial budget. The annual deficit (not debt) is now forecast at $12.1 billion. Ontario's annual spending excess is almost as much as Saskatchewan's total accumulated debt. No wonder the Troika of NDP prov- incial leaders see their common enemy politically as Conservatives and Liber- als, but inwardly know that debt is their unifying force. Saskatchewan farmers have it far tougher than Ontario farmers. If Saskatchewan cuts back on social programs, expect to see the same here, just later and not quite so severe. If Saskatchewan cuts back on aid to farm- ers, expect to see greater losses here, and faster. The rural vote in Ontario is not as important as in Saskatchewan. The political backs are to the wall and the brink of that financial crisis is tight to the wall as well. Room to manoeu- vre with government programs gets less and less each year as debt costs eat up larger and larger proportions of the tax revenues. Don't be too surprised if some inte- rest rates go up, not down, as risk has to be rewarded. Saskatchewan's debt risk is now less attractive to lenders than field crop enterprises based on a wheat economy.0 Robert Mercer is editor of the Broadwater Market Letter, a weekly commodity and policy advisory letter from Goodwood, Ontario LOC 1 AO.