The Rural Voice, 1991-02, Page 21GRAIN MARKETS
might take. There is a higher probability
of weakness later this year, when produc-
ers decide to dump corn, than there is of
much strength.
SOYBEANS
The USDA report of January 11 was
negative to the soybean market, but the
losses were short lived as South American
weather concerns began to enter the pic-
ture. Beans have rallied 30 cents off the
lows of January 14 to $5.78/bu (January
17). The critical period for soybeans in
Brazil is late January and early February
and with low soil moisture levels and high
temperatures (90° F), rain will be badly
needed soon.
In Ontario, Statscan has set the 1990
crop of 47 -million bushels. Marketings
haven't been too brisk and basis has held
quite well despite a strong Canadian
dollar. It's only in the last two days that
the dollar has dropped by almost a full cent
which should help keep the Ontario basis
firm for the time being.
Soybean crush hasn't been brisk so far
this year and we would like to see this im-
prove to keep basis levels firm. Currently,
basis sits at 31 cents over March futures
and new crop soys are quoted at 48 cents
over November. Both of these basis will
be subjected to gyrations in the Canadian
dollar, which I still feel will remain strong.
Soybean futures may be affected more
by South American weather this year than
by acreage in the U.S., unless a major
drought hits the mid -west this summer.
FEED GRAINS
Feed grain prices have remained strong
in Ontario, and with a limited amount of
western grains available in Ontario, prices
should stay stable in the near term. As
I've said before, any time barley prices are
higher than corn prices, feed users should
look at selling barley and buying corn.
Today, barley is trading around $107-
$110 per tonne, FOB farm, and mixed
grain from $95-$100 per tonne. Feed oats
are still lagging behind pricewise, unless
the oats are bright and heavy. Prices range
from $70 per tonne for feed quality to
$105 per tonne for good oats.
Grain movement from Western Canada
will be slow until spring when vessels can
move again, as rail movement is limited in
winter because rail unloading facilities are
not too plentiful in Ontario.
Grain market commentary is difficult
at a time with the stock markets, oil
markets, currencies, and precious metals
markets reacting wildly to the war. Before
the war in the Middle East is over, there
may be opportunities for producers to
make some reasonably good grain sales
because adversity usually provides oppor-
tunity. Let's hope peace returns quickly.0
Information supplied by Dave Gordon,
LAC, Inc., Hyde Park, 519473-9333.
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FEBRUARY 1991 17