The Rural Voice, 1990-04, Page 49areas that remain critically short of
subsoil moisture: parts of Iowa and
Minnesota, most of the Dakotas and
Nebraska and Kansas. Palmerino
acknowledges, however, that an un-
usually good timing of rainfall could
repeat the 1989 performance, where
crops were surprisingly good despite
totals far below normal.
and volcanic activity. And company
experts see a rare coincidence of all
these factors portending serious crop
problems during the early '90s. They
look for events that cause prolonged
"blocking patterns" (stationary high
pressure systems) in the U.S. corn
belt, and note the following:
• Developing El Nino conditions
Climatologist Dr. Iben Browning says there are two very
stormy, crop failure years ahead. In 1990 the rest of our
reserves will be used up. In 1991 we will have crop
failures and there will be hunger in the U.S.
The talk at a crop consultants'
conference I attended in Fort Wayne,
Indiana on February 27 and 28 went
much the same. Fellow consultants
from across the midwest are finding it
hard to believe that the same incred-
ibly timely rainfall can happen again
in 1990. There certainly is no subsoil
moisture to rely on, and there's been
no snow to speak of since January.
The lack of volcanic dust in the
atmosphere has Paul Handler, an
Urbana, Illinois weather expert, con-
vinced that there will be no bumper
crops for the U.S. this season. But he
doesn't see a disaster like '88, either.
He thinks it will be much like last
year: not enough rain to recharge sub-
soil moisture, but enough to produce
about 95 per cent of trend -line yields.
The last volcano with enough
punch to affect weather was the 1985
Colombia eruption. Handler credits
the rain -seeding dust it generated with
nearly ideal growing seasons in '86
and '87.
Another wet spring proponent is
Freese-Notis and Associates, the Des
Moines -based weather -consulting
firm. Charlie Notis says the most sig-
nificant weather phenomenon of this
winter was the dramatic switch from
bitter cold in December to balmy
temperatures in January. He has
checked weather records and found
that virtually every time such a switch
has occurred we have had a good crop
season.
Impending bad news on the long-
term weather front describes the out-
look for the early 1990s of Cropcast, a
Maryland firm. Cropcast combines
studies of El Nino, solar/lunar cycles,
will have their most pronounced effect
on weather and crops in '91 and '92.
• Sunspot maximums, which
occur about every 11 years, tend to be
associated with blocking patterns. A
sunspot maximum is due some time
between 1990 and 1992.
• Though volcanic activity in
Alaska last year was much less than
the activity of the early '80s, some
ash reached the stratosphere, where
it can remain for two to three years.
This phenomenon will lower average
temperatures at higher latitudes,
increasing the risk of blocking
patterns during subsequent summers.
Last but not least, we have clima-
tologist Dr. Iben Browning. In the
mid -'70s he correctly predicted an in-
crease in volcanic and earthquake acti-
vity. And a speech he gave Last Octo-
ber 9 was followed eight days later by
events that proved him on target.
He said 1990 and 1991 will be
the stormiest years since records have
been kept. Each of the past three
years, crops have been lower than our
utilization, lowering our reserves. We
have been profligate. And there are
two very stormy, crop -failure years
ahead. In 1990 we will use up the rest
of our reserves. In 1991 we will have
crop failures and there will be hunger
in the U.S.
"I think the probability is high
that the federal govemment will fall,
because Americans will take to hunger
poorly," Dr. Browning added. "But
check me out. On October 16, plus or
minus a day or two, there should be a
volcanic eruption, certainly some big
earthquakes. If that happens, I'm on
track."
Dr. Browning's expectations
proved to be accurate. The San
Francisco Bay earthquake hit at 5:04
p.m. Pacific time on October 17.0
SUNSPOTS AND GROWING CONDITIONS
Since the early 1800s, astronom-
ers have been watching cycles of lunar
explosions called sunspots, which
seem to reach their peak with amazing
regularity every 11 years. Sunspots
are gaseous eruptions that throw out
huge solar flares containing billions
of tons of solar matter.
With ever -improved technology,
science has been tracking these bizarre
solar storms, and NASA researchers
are now predicting that the cyclical
solar outbursts will reach their next
ultimate, frenzied maximum in the
years 1990-91. Already things on
earth are happening as a result of
increased solar activity.
In March '89, two great flares
erupted, sending their fury of radiation
earthward. It knocked many orbiting
satellites into a lower orbit. Time
magazine reported that a secret de-
fence department satellite "began a
fatal tumble." Other tracking systems
were temporarily suspended. Here
on Earth, shortwave transmissions
were halted for up to 24 hours, Coast
Guard navigation systems were over-
whelmed, the Hydro -Quebec power
company lost electricity in Montreal,
surges in electrical transmission lines
across North America were common.
Astronomers studying the sun say
we are getting a very early start for
solar storms of this severity, which
suggests we may be entering a period
of record-setting solar activity as well
as intensity. Solar explosions have
been linked to changes in air pressure
around the earth, affecting weather
patterns, temperature variations, and
even the size of the notorious hole in
the Antarctic ozone layer. What does
it all mean for planet Earth?
Crop commodities are at a 22 -
month low. Do the sunspots portend
depression prices, crop failures, or
simple erratic weather?0
APRIL 1990 45