The Rural Voice, 2006-12, Page 54in soybean prices — a smaller
Brazilian soybean crop that is being
planted right now and the threat of a
huge acreage swing in the U.S. to
corn in the spring of 2007. As well,
the continuing growth in bio -diesel
production and usage will keep total
soybean use above three billion
bushels.
In Ontario, soybean harvest is 90 -
95 per cent complete and reported
yields around the province are
generally excellent. The quality of the
food -grade soys was maintained,
making it through the wet fall in good
condition.
Basis levels have remained fairly
strong although the supply available
to the crushers is quite ample.
Producers with soybeans stored on
farm can forward sell their soys for
January or February shipment
at $7/bu and should look at that
option rather than holding on hoping
for better prices way off in the
future.
We are in interesting times in the
context of growing and marketing
grain in Ontario. Corn futures are at
10 -year highs but the Canadian dollar
is much higher than it was in 1996, so
Ontario growers are not enjoying a
basis in Canadian funds that is as
high as it could be.
On top of this, we have a severe
vomitoxin problem in the six most
southwestern counties in Ontario. I
mentioned earlier that this corn has
been "severely" discounted relative to
the low vomitoxin areas. This
discount will cover part of the extra
freight to move low vomitoxin corn
into the southwest and blend it. The
ethanol plants have increased their
tolerance to 4.0 and 5.0 ppms of
vomitoxin, which will help some
producers but more importantly will
make it easier to blend away the
problem corn. Feed mills and other
industrial users are limiting
vomitoxin to less than 2.0 ppms and
as a result, a lot of loads are getting
rejected.
This leads me to the fact that
Ontario will need to import about 65
million bushels of corn during this
crop year and most of that will likely
come in with a guarantee on
vomitoxin levels. We do need to
blend a lot of the corn that we
are saddled with and there is
not enough good quality corn in
Woodlot Management
Ontario to blend with as well as
supply the traditional markets.
Unfortunately, the threat of
countervail still hangs over the
marketplace causing concern among
users and even farmers who may
want to import and use low-
vomitoxin corn. Hog farmers in the
southwest in particular are in need of
high quality corn this year more so
than in past years.
Marketing decisions still need to
be made regardless of quality issues
and there certainly have been some
good opportunities to sell corn and
soys for cash flow needs this fall.
Now, it is time to do some serious
planning because sometime in the
next four or five months, producers
should see some good opportunities
to do some marketing. And,
producers should be looking a couple
of crop years ahead as part of their
planning.
As I mentioned earlier, the market
will need to buy corn acres during the
winter months and I feel this action
will give producers an opportunity to
get sales made at very profitable
levels. The key though will be to plan
and not get greedy.°
Emerald Ash Borer on the move again
Steve Bowers
is a forester
and forest
owner, a
member of
the Huron -
Perth
Chapter of
the Ontario
Woodlot
Association
and
Stewardship Co-ordinator with the
Huron Stewardship Council.
The 30th annual Forest Health
Review took place in Orillia on
October 26.
This event is an opportunity for
researchers and field staff to update
other forestry professionals on the
current status of a variety of forest
insect and disease pests. While
speakers usually touch on damage
caused by native pests such as forest
50 THE RURAL VOICE
tent caterpillar, fall web worm and
spruce budworm, the focus in recent
years has been on introduced species.
Once again this year the Emerald
Ash Borer (EAB) occupied a
considerable portion of the agenda.
At the time of the Review it was
confirmed that the pest is now
est?hlished along the Canadian shore
of the St. Clair River all the way up
to Sarnia, with a few additional sites
of infestation north from Sarnia along
the eastern shore of Lake Huron.
In the past couple of weeks a
newly discovered outbreak in
London has made headlines.
Discoveries of additional outbreaks
will no doubt continue in the next
few years as the EAB continues to
expand its range. It is likely already
established beyond these known sites
(likely mostly from movement of
infested firewood), but usually takes
several years to discover since it is
very difficult to survey for until tree
dieback becomes evident. To further
complicate detection, ash has also
suffered considerable dieback in
recent years due to unfavourable
climatic conditions.
In an effort to reduce its rate of
spread, quarantines have been
established by the Canadian Food
Inspection Agency to restrict
movement of ash logs or firewood
with bark attached, within or out of
infested areas. However, since the
insect only bores immediately under
the bark, infested trees can be
salvaged for lumber if provision can
be made to process them within the
quarantine guidelines.
Concerns about this pest have
resulted in many woodlot owners
harvesting ash trees in recent years.
Unfortunately this has corresponded
with a decline in price for ash
lumber. Contrary to what many
people think, the price decline has
had little to do with the EAB.