The Rural Voice, 2006-12, Page 53News in Agriculture
Faces of Farming calendar unveiled
The official unveiling of the 2007
Faces of Farming calendar and
affiliated art exhibition took place
November 7.
This year's calendar features the
faces and stories of 22 individuals
and their families, many who have
had to overcome great hurdles to
become farmers. The calendar is also
meant to show the diverse nature of
Ontario agriculture. When they're not
farming, these participants are active
in their communities as sports
coaches and enthusiasts, 4-H leaders,
church volunteers, musicians and
agricultural ambassadors. Partici-
pants come from all parts of the
province and represent 12 types of
livestock farms.
Each year, Ontario Farm Animal
Council distributes thousands of
copies of the calendar to political
leaders, grocery stores and media.
Copies are also available at a cost of
$10 each. Copies can be ordered
through the OFAC website at
www.ofac.org <http://www.ofac.org/>
Grain Markets
Corn prices must rise to bug acres to meet demand
Dave Gordon
is a
commodities
specialist
with LAC,
Inc., Hyde
Park, 519-
473-9333.
By Dave Gordon
November 17, 2006
Soybean harvest is pretty well
wrapped up across Ontario as I write
this, but corn is another story. In
southwestern Ontario, only 40 to 50
per cent of the corn crop is in the bin,
although it will not take too many
days of sunshine to change this
scenario.
Yields of both corn and soys have
been great, however vomitoxin has
raised its ugly head. Generally
speaking, the six counties in the
southwest are the worst affected by
vomitoxin with levels ranging from
2.0 - 12.0 ppm. Every year there are
areas of higher vomitoxin in Ontario
surrounded by clean corn. This year
there are islands of low vomitoxin in
a sea of mycotoxins.
Corn:
The USDA confirmed that the
corn crop is indeed getting smaller. In
the last supply/demand report, yield
was dropped to about 151 bu/acre
while at the same time demand was
reduced • slightly. The basic
fundamentals have not changed
however — usage is projected to be
one billion bushels more than
production and in order to reverse
this trend, prices will need to attract
more acres in 2007. In order to make
up the one billion bushel deficit,
another 6.5 million acres would be
required and I have not heard of any
analysts projecting more than five
million acres. So, if demand
continues to grow at the present pace,
the carryover, in theory, will be
dropped to a level that is too close to
zero for comfort. The job of the
market in this case is to ration usage
and keep supplies in the pipeline at a
comfortable level.
In Ontario, we now have a dual
price system for corn. In the
southwest, basis levels are about
$.30/bu less than in the Toronto area
because of the uncertainty of the
quality as well as the probable need
to blend with low vomitoxin corn.
The corn east of Kitchener is
generally able to meet 2.0 ppm
vomitoxin threshold while corn east
of Toronto, is generally less than 1.0
ppm. If the corn in the southwest
needs to be blended, the freight costs
alone to move corn from the east to
the west are more than $.30/bu.
Right now, the best plan is to get
the crop off the field, dry it down
well and find a market later in the
marketing year. Ontario is a net
importer of corn and as such, we do
not have access to large markets such
as the U.S. southeast that can blend
huge quantities of corn. As a result,
the northern states are not as
concerned about vomitoxin as we arc
in Ontario and the mycotoxin levels
in Michigan for instance are not as
high as we see in Ontario.
Soybeans:
The USDA raised soybean yields
to 43 bu/acre and total production to
3.2 billion bushels while increasing
the 2006-07 carryover to 565 million
bushels. Traditionalists would assume
that futures prices should be in the
toilet after a report such as this but
instead prices continue to creep
higher. Probably two factors are
responsible for this relative strength
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DECEMBER 2006 49