The Rural Voice, 2006-11, Page 48Grain Markets
should help in keeping ending stocks
manageable.
In Ontario, harvest is only 40 - 50
per cent complete with the southwest
part lagging the rest of the province.
If we could put together five or six
days of decent weather, the balance
of the crop would be in the bin.
Generally speaking, soy yields are
really good across the province and it
appears that the Ontario crop should
be close to a record. Basis levels are
stronger than we have seen for a
while in Canadian funds and coupled
with higher futures, cash prices are
above the $6/bu level at most
elevators. Export programs out of the
lakes and the seaway have been quite
active and we could see upwards of
375,000 MT shipped out of Canada.
Ontario producers have been
living with very low prices for a long
while due to low futures prices and a
strong Canadian dollar. Half of the
problem is showing some signs of
being solved with the latest run up in
futures prices. Corn prices have
gained $.80 to $.90 from the low of
mid-September with $.30 coming
after the USDA report of October 12,
2006. Obviously, there was enough
concern about demand outstripping
production prior to the report to add
$.60 to corn prices. The report added.
fuel to the fire by reducing production.
As has been repeated often, the
world wheat situation has been the
main stimulus to rising prices.
Virtually every part of the world
came up short in wheat production
even prior to Australia weighing in. It
appears that the drought in Australia
is absolutely devastating and the
wheat crop is now projected at less
than 10 million MT compared to the
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25 million MT last year. But wheat
prices may have moved up too
quickly since the expected demand
from the export market has not
materialized yet and now U.S. wheat
is priced higher than in the rest of the
world.
Corn futures are now trading
independent of the wheat market to
some extent and corn fundamentals
will take over and direct corn prices
from here. The growth in the ethanol
business is certainly the leader in new
demand for corn and exports will
become residual demand in the
marketplace.
Soybean futures have not shown
the same strength that corn and wheat
have but at least prices are holding in
the face of a good North American
crop. I do not see much happening to
soybean prices until South America
get their crop planted and the big
question will be how many acres get
planted.
This recent run up in prices is
needed by growers and if you must
sell grain right off the combine
because of space'or for cash, there is
nothing wrong with going ahead and
doing some pricing now. My longer-
term view of feed grain prices is for
more strength. How much more, I do
not know, but some analysts are
comparing the period ahead of us to
1973-74 and 1995-96. In both of
those marketing years, carryovers got
to extremely low levels and in these
years of tight stocks, the speculator
can be a grower's best friend. The
funds will provide many
opportunities and producers must
take advantage of these higher prices.
Corn prices this winter will need
to reach a level that will increase corn
acres planted in 2007 in an attempt to
fill the growing gap between
production and usage. This year, the
gap will be almost one billion bushels
and with demand projected to
increase in the future, acres need to
increase immediately.
It is no time for producers to get
greedy when it comes to selling
decisions. Even though I believe that
prices will go higher in the coming
months, it does not mean that I would
hang on to grain hoping for the
highest price. Sell into the stronger
markets and do not get greedy.0
Woodlot
Management
The fascination
of deer
Steve Bowers
is a forester
and forest
owner, a
member of
the Huron -
Perth
Chapter of
the Ontario
Woodlot
Association
and
Stewardship Co-ordinator with the
Huron Stewardship Council.
While I can find things to like
about all four seasons, fall is
definitely my favourite. We usually
get some good weather that's not too
hot, the bugs are gone and it's a great
time to get out in the bush to work,
or just for a walk.
Fall is also a great time of year to
monitor wildlife activities. Some
animals are busy preparing for winter
or in the case of the white-tailed
deer, they're even busier focusing on
their breeding season.
The breeding season for white
tailed deer, or rut as it is more
commonly called, starts in the early
autumn and lasts for several months.
Initially the bucks (male deer)
establish a social hierarchy that
influences breeding rights later in the
fall (the dominant bucks receive most
of the breeding opportunities).
In early to mid-October they start
to establish territories, creating and
revisiting "rubs" and "scrapes" that
are essentially information posts for
rival bucks or receptive does (female
deer). "Rubs" are usually on small
trees that have most of the bark
shredded off using the rougher base
of the antlers.
The deer also have scent glands
on their forehead and leave their
olfactory calling card behind on the
damaged trees. They seem to have a
preference for smaller saplings as
well as certain bark textures. I've
seen many young walnut saplings
severely damaged by amorous bucks.