The Rural Voice, 2006-02, Page 23unlikely any deal will be reached
until 2009-2010.
The negotiators in Hong Kong did
reach an agreement to reduce export
subsidies and eliminate them by
2013. That will have an effect on
Canadian diary producers. The export
of surplus milk powder, currently
about 11,000 tonnes, will be
impossible. As well Canada will lose
a traditional export of 4,000 tonnes
of cheese to the United Kingdom.
The net effect will be a .88 per cent
reduction in market share quota
(MSQ), Saunders said.
The key to Canadian supply
managed commodities if a deal
is to be reached is retention of
a sensitive products categoty which
would mean tariffs for these products
would not be reduced as much as the
general tariff amount, Saunders said.
Supply managed commodities have
such high tariffs that milk producers
could likely take a 50 per cent
reduction without excessive pain.
,But the amount of products
allowed to be under the sensitive
products label category would be an
issue. The U.S. is arguing only one
per cent could be in the sensitive
products category while the
European Union is arguing for eight
per cent and the G10 group of
countries that includes Switzerland
and Japan, argues for 10-15 per cent.
If the agreed total was under eight
per cent, supply -managed
commodities would have to pick and
choose what to include. It might be,
for instance, that fluid milk, which
isn't easily imported, might be taken
out to give room for products that are
more in danger from cheap imports.
But if they gained something in
retaining higher tariffs, he said,
they're likely have to give up
something else, such as greater
access to the Canadian market.
In the 1993 GATT talks it had
been thought that all countries would
give a minimum access to imports of
five per cent of their market. But the
U.S. has given up only 2.5 per cent
of its markets to dairy imports and
the E.U., three per cent. Canada has
given up 5.2 per cent of it's cheese
market to imports. Under a new
agreement this would likely grow.
"If you create a sensitive product
box you'd likely have to give up
greater access for fluid milk, butter
and cheese," Saunders warned.0
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