The Rural Voice, 2005-08, Page 45,19°
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42 THE RURAL VOICE
did not hit all of the Midwest Corn
Belt and in fact the western belt had
good rains early in the growing
season.
The northern third of Illinois is the
area that has been hit hardest by
drought and has been the focus of
many traders for the last 60 days.
Expectations are for a corn yield of
50 per cent of normal in the best
growing area in the U.S. However, if
we break down how many bushels
that equates to, we come up with 175
- 200 million bushels that may be lost
in Illinois. With the cushion of a huge
carryover, this amount is not really a
factor. But trade psychology has
made the most of this small drought
area and if temperatures cool off and
we return to normal weather
conditions, I do not see futures prices
going much higher. When more new
ethanol plants come on stream in the
next 12 - 24 months, prices should
edge higher in 2006 and 2007.
Soybeans on the other hand are
still quite vulnerable to weather,
fungus and insect problems. The
month of August is critical to
production in North America
considering the continued increase in
demand and a corresponding
reduction in carryover. Unfortunately,
the U.S. farm program is not market
neutral and this year we saw a
reduction in soybean acres that went
to corn at a time when the U.S.
needed to grow more soybeans. If
there are any weather problems in the
next month, I think we can see
soybean prices make new highs
especially with the thought that
Brazil may reduce their soybean
acreage. Ontario producers will need
to be on the lookout for aphids in the
next month and control them early.
However, I doubt very much if rust
spores will find their way this far
north.
My final thoughts are that there is
still good potential for new crop
soybean prices to make new highs but
also that the futures market will be
very volatile. New crop corn futures
may have seen their highs but basis
levels in Ontario should remain quite
strong. I think we may have to wait
until the new year to see much in the'
way of price gains, which will come
from the demand side.0