The Rural Voice, 2002-08, Page 52yields are getting reduced daily. The
bottom line is Ontario will be in an
import position once again.
Quebec is in tougher shape than
Ontario and some traders think their
crop will be less than 90 million
bushels or 26 million bushels less
than last year when they had one of
their larger crops. Quebec will also
need to import a large quantity of
corn in the coming year.
Basis levels in Ontario have
remained static with old crop
reflecting import levels while new
crop could show some room for
improvement. Producers should not
get too excited about forward selling
new crop until pollination is well
underway.
SOYBEANS:
The USDA supply/demand report
for soybeans showed a big drop in the
carryover stocks that also impacted
the projected carryover numbers for
2003. As with corn, the question is
what effect will drought have on the
final yield? In the July report, a yield
of 39.7 bu. was used, but the thought
is that the acreage will be increased
in the August report. Will higher
acres be offset with lower yields?
Basis levels in the U.S. for old
crop soys are extremely strong, as
producers simply will not part with
their remaining stocks.
In Ontario, the crop is certainly
under a lot of stress. The critical
flowering period of August will
determine the final outcome. If one
thinks back to 1988, the soybean crop
looked dead in July but the rain in
August brought the crop back from
the brink and although yields were
not the greatest, we saw the turn
around that can occur.
Basis levels in Ontario at the
elevator are very strong and would
give a producer about $8.50/bu for
old crop soys. If there are any
soybeans left in farm bins, it would
be prudent to have them sold soon.
New crop basis is also very good as
far as a harvest bid is concerned with
elevators posting a price of $2.30 -
$2.35 over November futures. If a
producer can store soys, the payback
right now would be about $.30/bu.
from harvest until January 2003.
Ontario corn and soybean
producers have not forward sold a
large portion of this year's production
and it appears to be a good decision.
«W
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MAI�NL7wN■I gul000u ■000 MENACES SW 1953
AUGUST 2002 49