The Rural Voice, 2000-06, Page 53i
metric tonne.
Western grains are being used in
Ontario in fairly small quantities
because of their relatively high prices.
Western wheat is selling for $165,
western barley at $131 and wheat
screenings for $143 per metric tonne.
As you can see by the price these
grains are being used on an as -needed
basis.
The USDA reports of U.S. and
world supply/demand for wheat should
lend support to long term futures prices
with ending wheat stocks projected to
drop by September 2001 which shows
a reverse in trends. Now, it may take
some time for prices to move higher
with the U.S. harvest just around the
corner. In fact, there could easily be
some hedge pressures appear in the
wheat market in June and July.
With regard to corn and soybeans,
the U.S. is well ahead of normal
planting dates and with average
moisture the potential for huge crops is
a good possibility. Right now, all eyes
are focused on Iowa and the amount of
rainfall that they get to alleviate the
lack of subsoil moisture. N.O.A.A. has
issued several statements recently that
drought conditions will continue into
July. But, with the rain that we've seen
in May, it's hard to imagine an
impending drought. Late News: The
latest 90 -day forecast shows above
normal temperatures over most of the
U.S. with below normal rainfall over
the plains and midwest.
I think that the market will give
producers another chance to sell grain
at higher prices than today even
without an actual drought. We may be
able to see prices that approach those
of early May. But, producers should
keep in the back of their mind the fact
that weather conditions in the U.S. are
not what they are here in Ontario and
that their crop is growing while ours is
still in the bag.
With planting in Ontario behind
schedule, producers should be careful
about the amounts they forward
contract. Start with the premise of an
average crop and if you haven't
already sold any new crop soys or
corn, consider selling a portion into the
next up -move in prices. Even though I
think that long term prices will
improve from what we've seen over
the last few months, producers need to
take care of business when the
opportunity presents itself because in
the short-term prices may waffle a bit.
I think we can get a little more
optimistic about grain prices but let's
not get greedy.0
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JUNE 2000 49