The Rural Voice, 2000-06, Page 13production potential.
It's about time for a serious
weather-related crop scare. A drought
in some other country is far better than
any government policy for returning
profit to farms and morale to farmers.
In farming it has been said that it is
necessary to have one really good year
in seven to tide over the remaining six.
That I2 -month period may be starting
this spring.
While farm comment will change
daily as the weather forecasters predict
change, I intend to hold my predictions
and gut feeling that this will be the year
of reduced worldwide grain production.
For instance an overall reduction of
Live per cent below the expected level
could result in a 50 per cent boost in
futures quotes. The balance between
supply and demand, according to
USDA and IWC estimates is tight. So I
look for both wheat and oilseeds to
fluctuate like the tech -stocks did this
spring, but in this case the trend will be
up not down.
Keep posted to the monthly
commentary in this magazine as well as
all the available news on the radio, the
intemet, the satellite systems or market
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HILL & HILL
FARMS
VARNA
newsletters. This may be the year
where you have to make it in terms of
farm cash returns. Rains in Illinois and
Indiana during the second week of May
dropped futures cohfirming the
presence of a weather market. That
drop was helped by the National
Weather Service releasing data
indicating normal to above normal
rainfall in Iowa and Illinois for the
period ahead. That rain will be critical
to price direction.°
Robert Mercer was editor of the
Broadwater Market Letter and a farm
commentator in Ontario for 25 years.
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JUNE 2000 9