The Rural Voice, 2000-04, Page 284
TOWARDS
THE 100 -COW
HERD
(AND LARGER)
By 2015, it's predicted the
average Ontario dairy herd will
have 100 cows. That means if
you're planning ahead you need
to consider many changes
By Keith Roulston
As herds get larger;the1
economies of scale favour,
freestall versus tie -stall
operations. More work is done \s‘`.,
,,.tram the tractor seat (beloW) frir ''
:. , • instead of by wa in • '
At the current rate of growth, the average dairy herd
in Ontario will be 100 cows by 2015 and that has
ramifications for many aspects of the business.
Jack Rodenburg, OMAFRA's dairy production systems
lead, was one of a number of speakers at the recent
"Planning your future in dairying" seminars held
throughout the province. He noted that dairy industry
leaders belonging to the Council of Dairy Farm
Organizations predicted, back in 1993, that in 10 years the
number of herds in Ontario would drop from 9560 to 4500
and average held size would increase from 43 to 67 cows.
With three years left, those numbers seem on target with
6,788 producers left as of last September and an average
herd size of 57 cows.
Historically, Rodenburg said, the average herd size in
Ontario doubles about every 17 or 18 years, bringing his
prediction of a 100 -cow herd average in 15 years. Larger
herds, he predicts, mean a move from the tie -stall
operations that predominate in Ontario to freestall
operations that offer labour savings. That in turn means the
small one -step -at -a -time expansion of older bank barns will
be replaced by more entirely new barns.
This evolution, Rodenburg says, is independent of
growing trade pressures. While the long term goal of the
World Trade Organization is still tariff reductions, the
focus seems to have shifted to "sorting out the rules" and
ensuring fair trading practices, he says.
"We can probably expect to have control of our own
destiny for a lot longer than expected," he says of the 1995
GATT tariffication of import quotas. That stability has had
a lot to do with the increase of quota value, as did the WTO
ruling against the exporting of over -quota milk. That ruling
"means over quota milk is now dog food milk," he said,
meaning quota is more valuable.
24 THE RURAL VOICE
Also pushing up quota has been the number of new
entrants to the dairy industry. "It's been many, many years
since we've seen as much immigration from Holland,
Germany and Switzerland," Rodenburg said. These
immigrants have a whole different viewpoint than
traditional Ontario dairy farms. New, robotic milking
systems are being introduced, along with the larger herds
they require to be efficient.
While milk per cow is increasing on Ontario dairy farms
through a combination of excellent management, genetics,
nutrition and health management services that allow our
dairy farmers to compete internationally, our production
per man is' not keeping up with New York State dairy
farms. While average Ontario dairy farms produce 187,588
kg per man and our top third of producers get 213,861 kg
per man, New York freestall farms with less than 150 cows
get 277,164 kg per man and herds with more than 300
cows get 465,740 kg per man. That's because Ontario
farms have, on average, 26 cows per worker compared to
33 for a NewYork freestall operation of up to 150 cows
and 47 for 300 -cow freestall operations and larger.
Astudy of figures from the Ontario Dairy Farm
Accounting Project shows that using a per -cow
accounting, freestall herds tend to produce as much
or more milk per cow as tie -stall herds but the income per
hour of labour for larger free stall herds can be double that
of smaller tie stall herds and 21 per cent higher than large
tie stall herds.
Because of Ontario's pricing structure, dairy farmers
can choose to stay the same size and still make money but
"if you stay the same the cost of production will drive your
price down. Your economies of scale don't work. Your
income will decline," Rodenburg says.
Even efficiencies characterized as "neutral" like