The Rural Voice, 1985-12, Page 11delivering repeatedly is that now just
isn't the time for beginning farmers
to enter the industry.
"If you're a beginning farmer (to-
day) you have to spend as much time
worrying about asset -value manage-
ment as you do about production
management," says Brinkman. His
warning to students considering
returning to the family farming
operation or buying their own farm is
to be "very, very careful." He ad-
vises his students to do a feasibility
study first. The results may show that
the student should stay out of
agriculture, "but the alternative of
going in and going broke is tragic."
He notes that one of his students who
did a feasibility study on expanding
his father's dairy herd found that the
expansion would actually have reduc-
ed the total farm income.
Losing a farm is tragic enough,
Brinkman says, but it's even more
tragic if it takes down a father or the
whole family farming operation. The
secret of getting into farming in the
'80s is "Don't enter when you are
ready, enter when the time is right,"
he adds. Looking into his crystal ball,
Brinkman says he doesn't foresee any
turn around in agriculture for at least
another two or three years.
"In the 1980s, when you don't
have capital appreciation coming,
you can't make a mistake. You could
make a mistake in the 1970s because
your land values were going up and
you could borrow money against
your mistake and stay in." That safe-
ty net of borrowing against rising
land values no longer exists for
today's farmers, notes the professor.
While Brinkman is perhaps best
known for his research comparing
farm and non-farm incomes, this
isn't his only area of policy study.
The economist is currently evaluating
Agriculture Canada's meat hygiene
program, arguing that the depart-
ment's sponsorship of the program
generates substantial benefits to
farmers while providing exceptionally
good use of public funds. He's also
continuing his research to find ways
to "modify quota policies to reduce
quota prices without reducing farmer
benefit from supply management."
International trade really isn't one
of George Brinkman's concentrated
areas of study, but it's hard to inter-
view any agricultural expert these
days without asking for an opinion
on the free trade question.
Brinkman, while noting that he
can't really provide a simple answer
on such a complicated matter, says
free trade is an issue that's going to
require extensive negotiations bet-
ween Canadian and American of-
ficials.
Canada, he notes, is already
holding its own against the U.S. in
beef, pork, and some grain produc-
tion. And since free trade would in-
volve not only agricultural products
but also agricultural inputs, it could
mean cheaper chemicals, pesticides,
and even lower interest rates for
Canadian farmers. "In some areas,
we could out -compete the Americans,
so free trade isn't going to hurt us
there," he says.
Also, while many U.S. farmers
regard Canada's supply management
system as subsidized agriculture,
Brinkman notes that it's highly
unlikely the U.S. will abandon its
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agricultural programs in a free trade
situation. Because the American
farmers have a "highly -subsidized
agriculture in grains," it is somewhat
"two-faced" for them to talk about
Canadian agricultural subsidies,
Brinkman points out. Then he adds,
"Free trade will be a long process if it
occurs," noting that only the day
before well-known economist John
Kenneth Galbraith predicted free
trade in North America will never
happen.
Whatever the future of free trade,
George Brinkman's future is a little
more predictable. The professor, who
serves on several government and in-
dustry advisory committees, plans to
continue teaching and research in his
adopted country.
Canada is "a very rewarding place
to work. I think the people are
tremendous, we have some of the best
farmers in the world (and I mean that
seriously), and it's a great country,"
he declares with more patriotism than
many native Canadians could muster.
While noting that agriculture still
faces some tough times, Brinkman
adds, "I also feel that we have such a
tremendous resource in our farmers
that we're going to get through it.
That's not to say we're going to get
through it without any bumps or
bruises but we'll get through it and
we'll come out with a good
agriculture. If 1 didn't think that, I
wouldn't be willing to commit myself
to working in this area."
Even if you don't agree with
everything George Brinkman says, it
would be almost impossible to argue
that he isn't committed to Canada's
farming industry.0
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