The Rural Voice, 1983-12, Page 6BERG
SALES -SERVICE
INSTALLATIONS
• Barn Cleaners
• Bunk Feeders
• Stabling
• Hydraulic Pumps
FREE ESTIMATES
Donald G. Ives
R R 2 Blyth
Brussels 882-9024
May
the true joy
of
Christmas
pour out
to all
mankind
H. GERR1TS BARN
EQUIPMENT LTD.
R.R. 5
CLINTON, ONT.
519-482-3936
PG. 4 THE RURAL VOICE, DECEM
FARM MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Prepared by John DePutter
on Nov. 17/83.
CATTLE ARE IN A GENERAL
UPTREND. The Chicago futures
markets probably made a major bot-
tom around labour day. From here,
the trend is higher until proven other-
wise. A cattle on feed report in Oc-
tober indicated that cattle ready for
kill in the mid. Dec. to February
period will be down 4.2% from last
year, and animals ready for slaughter
during March, April and May should
be down more than 18%. The above
report, measuring supplies in 13 ma-
jor producing states, was followed by
a November 7 state report, which
pegged October placements down
about 5% from the previous Nov.
1st, and cattle on feed down about
6%. These reports hinted at upside
room for cattle.
HOGS ARE STILL WALLOWING
IN OVERSUPPLY. Cash markets in
the U.S. remain at $40 or less, and
Ontario around $58-59. But many
futures contracts bottomed in July,
and have trended generally higher
since. U.S. weekly hog slaughter has
been up 15-20% from a year ago,
which is bearish near term, but the
longer the price weakness the more
potential there is on the upside when
the market turns. Meanwhile, weaner
pigs appear poised to turn higher as
the outlook for late winter -early spr-
ing hog markets looks brighter. The
U.S. hog:corn ratio is around 11.5/1
which has to mean higher hogs
and/or lower corn at some point
down the road.
THE SIZE OF THE U.S. CORN
CROP WAS LOWERED AGAIN IN
NOVEMBER. USDA officials now
peg production at only 4.12 billion
bushels, less than half last year's out-
put. This means that ending stocks
after the current marketing year will
be only 512 million bushels, com-
pared with 3.14 billion last year.
USDA officials think American farm
prices should average $3.40 to $3.80
per bushel, compared with present
levels of $3.30 or so. The Washington
boys, in other words, are looking for
higher prices ahead.
BUT THE CHARTS KEEP GIVING
SELL SIGNALS. At time of writing,
an attempt by traders to bid futures
prices over the $3.60 area is failing.
And markets are selling off despite
bullish fundamental news.
SOYBEANS: PRODUCTION IS
BIGGER THAN THOUGHT.
BER 1983
USDA analysts raised their soybean
estimate in the November crop up-
date, from October's guess of 1.517
billion bushels to 1.536 billion. They
also raised carryover expectations
from last month's projection of 120
million bushels, to 140 million.
Things are still tight, but not as
bullish as before.
FARM RECEIPTS ARE DOWN
2.8% FROM A YEAR AGO, SAYS
STATSCAN. Receipts dropped from
$14.19 billion in the Jan. to Sept.
period of 1982 to $13.8 billion for
that period this year. But these
figures apply to Canada as a whole.
In Ontario, things have turned for the
bet ter.
TURNAROUND IN BARLEY SUP-
PLIES: The Canadian Wheat Board
made so many barley export sales this
year that it can't find enough to meet
its commitments. The Wheat Board
will have to substitute wheat in some
of its sales. Meanwhile, the U.S. end-
ed this past marketing year with ex-
cess barley stocks of 223 million
bushels, but will clip that to 165
million bushels by next summer.
USDA analysts in November raised
barley export estimates by 20% from
October prognostications. And poor
barley crops this year in parts of
Europe could push down EEC ex-
ports.
U.S. DAIRY LEGISLATION STILL
UP IN THE AIR. The House and
Senate bodies have approved the idea
of paying dairymen up to $10 cwt. to
cut production 5 to 30%, but at
writing time there's a chance Presi-
dent Reagan will veto the bill. Reagan
wants to simply lower the support
price instead.
WORLD GRAIN SUPPLIES STILL
SHRINKING, BUT ADEQUATE.
Total grain production is placed at
1.590 million metric tons, against
1982-83 production of 1.677 billion.
World coarse grains are down from
779.6 million m.t. to 681.5 million.
World wheat is up from 480.4 million
to 481.4. Oilseed output will drop
from 180.6 million, to 162.3 million
metric tons. Conclusion? Supplies are
down enough to justify current high
prices but not necessarily tight
enough to force another leg up in the
bull market without crop problems in
South America this winter.
IN WORLD ECONOMIC NEWS,
gold continues its course south.
America's foremost analyst of the