The Rural Voice, 1983-03, Page 23AG ALERT SEMINAR:
PLAY THE 4 -YEAR CYCLE
It used to be if you got up early
enough and went to bed late enough,
you might get lucky in farming—if you
struck oil.
That's straight from Jim Gill, market
analyst with the Illinois Farm Bureau
speaking at a recent Marketing Seminar
sponsored by DePutter Publishing for
Ag Alert subscribers.
Gill says the marketing side of
farming affects the farmer more than
the production side.
"Get rich slowly," he says, "Some-
times you get good profits and you go
'whole hog. Don't do it all at once."
Markets are directly linked with the
four year cycle of U.S. presidential
elections, Gill says. They'll be a reces-
sion 18 months after a presidential
election, whether we need it or not.
Play the four year cycle he says, and
remember, you can make more money
on the downside of the economy than
on the upside, particularly in the grain
markets.
Gill outlined the corn and soybean
outlook and details of the U.S. PIK
program. With PIK, "payment in kind",
farmers instead of being paid cash,
would be paid in bushels. Gill wasn't
sure of the saleability of the idea as it
could change the whole supply -demand
balance.
"Basis" is a confusing idea to many
farmers, Gill says. Basis is the differ-
ence between the Chicago futures and
the local cash price, not the spread
one future against another
between
future.
Charting, another marketing tool, is
no great magic, says Gill. "It's a
signalling device, a trend reversal indi-
cator measuring the supply -demand ba -
IN THE NEWS
lance on a daily basis. Charting, is part
of a farmer's marketing education," Gill
says. "You should be averaging a dollar
an acre a year on marketing education
or you'll be out of the farming game."
A producer panel outlined some of
their ideas. Karl Stumpf, from Denfield,
(he called the Canadian dollar the
'northern peso') said in his opinion,
farmers, in '83 should grow more
beans, less corn, be more careful with
chemicals, do band spraying only, and
do more cultivating.
Other panel members included: Ri-
chard Hiscock, an Embro hog farmer
and a member of "The Heronbrook
Group", farm consultants, John Kave-
laars, who uses a computer for his
mixed farm which includes eggs, hogs,
cattle and cash crops; Bob Ross, St.
Marys cash crop and dairy farmer; Bob
Hutton, feed and supply and Ron
Urquhart, hog farmer and partner in Ag
Alert.
Gill summed up with a global eco-
nomy outlook, saying that he foresees a
banking crisis within the next ten years
but not within Canadian or U.S. bor-
ders.
"There will be no exploding commo-
dity prices," he says, "Everything will
be gradual."
In summary, Gill says, learn to play
the four year cycle, more forward
contracting, hedging on the downside,
get someone in your operation to learn
charting and learn how to talk basis in
grains and meat.
Plan a marketing system when you
buy your seed, plan to have your
"numbers" computerized in the next five
years and set a goal of doubling your
net income per unit.
No risk, Gill says, then no reward.
Sheila Gunby
BASICS OF
RECORD-KEEPING
AT COURSE
A five-day Financial Management
Course for farmers was held in the
Teeswater area, sponsored by Employ-
ment and Immigration Canada, Geor-
gian College and the Ontario Ministry of
Agriculture and Food. These courses
were offered throughout Grey and Bruce
counties in February and March.
By improving attitudes towards re-
cord-keeping, good records can be
produced which can be analyzed and
used for making plans for the future.
This was one of the aims of this
course.
Also, there must be wise use of
credit and good communication bet-
ween the creditor and borrower. To do
this, financial statements are required
such as balance sheets, income state-
ments and cash flow projections.
Monthly bank statements with re-
turned cancelled cheques are a must in
any good system. Daily records are
essential as well as monthly summa-
ries. Different types of record systems
were discussed but it was pointed out
that whichever system you choose, it
still takes a lot of discipline and
knowledge to make these records work
for you.
Questions were presented from the
floor during the course and farmers
offered personal tips from their own
record-keeping systems One of the
thirty farmers taking the course com-
mented "I have my own record-keeping
system, but I'll try some of the fine
tuning tips I've picked up here." Ano-
ther farmer said he wished the course
had been given two or three years ago.
Dianne Jones
Van Ankum Simmentals is consigning
three bulls to the Ontario Bull Sale
at Markham on April 2, 1983.
We are sending 2 sons of the Major: they are a 7/8
Simmental with an R.O.P. index of 133 and a
purebred Simmental with a 115 R.O.P. index. Also, a
son of the Prince. a 7/8 Simmental with a 130 R.O.P.
index.
We also have 3 other bulls at home.
For a catalogue for the Ontario Bull Sale, or more
information, please contact:
Hilbert Van Ankum
R.R. 2, Wroxeter
519-335-3011
MAJOR
THE RURAL VOICE, MARCH 1983 PG. 23