The Rural Voice, 1982-12, Page 19too early yet, though, to get a true handle
on Brazil production.
Lower Interest Rates Still Possible, But
Not a Certainty: One analyst, Jim Gill of
the Illinois Farm Bureau, said in a recent
interview that U.S. interest rates could be
well under 100/0 by spring. And in
Washington, Reagean Administration of-
ficials are stubbornly predicting lower
rates and recovery... news reports car-
rying their optimistic outlooks are carried
on various wire services daily. There are
still, however, some doom and gloomers
around and their forecasts should not be
just brushed aside. At a monetary reform
conference in the U.S. in October, world
analyst Harry Schultz, gold analyst
Donald Hoppe, and others, predicted
depression.
White Beans: I,arge Carryover Projected:
If you add white bean production from
Ontario, Michigan, North Dakota and
Minnesota, you'll get a total crop of over
9 million bags this year. Usage is expected
to be 71/2 million bags, leaving 11/2 million
extra. Last year's total price to the
producer was $30.70 per cwt., but the
huge carryover after the 1982 crop is
marketed, will probably cut 1982 crop
returns to one-half of that.
Hogs: Peak Is Probably Behind Us But
Modest Winter RaIII Is Expected. All the
predictions could go out the window with
the December USDA hogs and pigs
report. But at this point, most U.S.
analysts figure the 3 year cycle top
occured in summer. Prices plummeted in
October and early November. However,
some analysts do think prices can recover
into winter even if they don't get near the
summer peak. Tom Heironymus predicts
U.S. live hogs will top around $60 (U.S.)
at some terminals, perhaps right into
summer. But he says there will be
consumer resistance at anything over $60.
Karen Curry, Analyst for Heinold Com-
modities in Chicago, looks for good gains
because hog slaughter should be down
17010 from last year during December. She
doesn't think U.S. producers are expan-
ding, because "they don't trust the
markets."
Cattlemen Bid Aggressively For Calves
And 1 coding,: "There are some exotic
calves going as high as 90 cents out here,"
said Gary Jones, President of the Cana-
dian Cattlemen's Association and a
Saskatchewan farmer. "But you can get
lots of good calves in the mid -eighties,"
he said in an interview on November 3rd.
If USDA forecasts for fat U.S. prices of
$65 to $70 (Choice steers, Omaha) holds,
cattle feeders could make a little money,
but most private analysts aren't that
bullish.
There Are Still Opportunities For Young
People Studding Agriculture, according
to Clay Switzer, Dean of the Ontario
Agricultural College at the University of
Guelph. Switzer said that 80% of
graduates in the agricultural degree
program had jobs when they left school
last spring. Normally, 90% had jobs in
better economic times, but the 80% figure
is still good, he asserted. The diploma
program gets even better job placement
because so many grads from this go back
to the farm. Enrollment dropped in the
fall of 1981 by about 150/o in agricultural
programs, but this fall, enrollment picked
up by 7 or 80/0, according to Switzer.
"We've regained half the drop we
suffered last year," he said. Switzer said
the best opportunities for young people
lie in agricultural business or agricultural
economics courses. "Agronomy is also
always important in Ontario, and 1 see the
need for work in subjects related to
forage. Research work for those with the
ability, also sees tremendous openings.
We've got so many research people who
are going to retire the next few years I
don't know how we're going to replace
them." he said.
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THE RURAL VOICE/DECEMBER 1982 PG. 19