The Rural Voice, 1982-12, Page 18RALHEN
HAMPSHIRES
Registered R.O.P.
breeding stock
RALPH HENDERSON
R.R. 1, Atwood, Ont.
(519) 356-2656
4
BUTLER
Ring Drive Silo Unloaders
Big Jim Silo Unloaders
Volume Belt Feeders
Convey -n -Feed Cattle Feeders
Single Chain Conveyors
Barn Cleaners
Oswalt Ensilmlxers
FARMATIC
Bender Hammer Mills
Blender Roller Mills
Blender Mills for Ground Hi -Moisture Corn
Augers
Leg Elevators
ACORN
Cable Barn Cleaners
WESTEEL-ROSCO
train Bins - 1350 to 250,000 bu.
Bulk Feed Tanks
ACME Fan -Jet Ventilation Systems
HOULE
Uquid Manure Pumps, Cleaners, Steel Trusses
BSL
Complete Hog Confinement Systems
SLURRY -SLINGER Uquid Manure Spreaders
CLAY
Parts and Service for Clay Equipment
ALSO Fibre -Funnels
Electric Feed Carts Ritchie Heated Bowls
Straw Choppers Hurst Equipment
WE HANDLE EVERYTHING - ALMOST
Zeginv ?won
Svatema ,ems.
At Amberley
IR. R. 111, Kincardine] Phone 395-5286
PG. 18 THE
FARM MARKET PERSPECTIVE
by John DePutter
The world is getting smaller every day
and international events can influence
decisions you make about your farm
business. In this monthly column John
DePutter will be alerting Rural Voice
readers to trends which could affect the
farming community. Since market news
it outdated as soon as it is written due to
shifts in government policies, weather,
political events, etc., readers should be
aware that these articles were prepared
Nov. 6, 1982.
RURAL VOICE/DECEMBER 1982
orad Corn Market Outlook Gets Glim-
mer Of Hope: The 1982 U.S. corn crop
will be at least 8.32 billion bushels,
according to most estimiates up to
November 8th. And carryover estimates
are still increasing, with excess amounts
after the 1982-83 marketing year pegged
at more than 3.3. billion bushels. That's
the bad news. The good news is that the
US Dept of Agriculture has pulled out the
plugs in an effort to boost prices. They've
instituted a credit program that has
brought Morroco and other buyers into
the grain markets. That's the demand
side. On the supply side, USDA already
has offered a juicy reduced acreage
program and is said to be considering
making its paid land diversion better yet.
On Fri. Nov. 5th, an 81/4 cent rally in
December corn futures gave hope that the
price downtrend may be stalled. But
burdensome supplies are expected to cap
rallies.
Expect Big Tax Bites In Coming Years:
Now is the time to do some tax planning,
if your fiscal year ends Dec. 3Ist. The tax
bite on anybody making a profit, even a
small profit, is expected to grow as federal
deficits grow. Also, in tough economic
times you can expect federal governments
(and all governments) to nail down every
penny of tax income they can. Finance
Minister Lalonde said in his recent
speech, "this government will continue to
act decisively to ensure that the strong and
more affluent among us help the weak
and the more vulnerable through these
difficult times." This may be a good
philosophy but it means anybody making
a profit will have to pay an astute
accountant and use sharp tax planning to
avoid being taken to the cleaners by the
tax man.
American Farmers To See Low Profits
Through Much Of 1983: That is the
prediction of a U.S. Agriculture Dept.
report. It says that during the rest of 1982
and '83, farmers will likely face low crop
prices, reduced rates of return, and cash
flow problems. They'll also face interest
rates that are declining, but are still high
relative to the inflation rate, according to
the report.
U.S. Election Results: Implications: Some
press reports claimed Democrats did well
on Nov. 2nd. Really, the Reagan Republi-
cans did well. Normally in a recession the
ruling party loses heavily. Republicans
lost some ground but not as much as the
governing party usually does in tough
times. It was important that Republicans
kept control of the Senate. The election
results mean Reaganomics will continue.
Expect continuation of the U.S. farm
loan program; expect the trend to less
inflation to continue, with less fear of
hyper -inflation; and expect Reagan's
team to work hard to make its forecast of
economic recovery by spring to come
true. (Do not expect a surging, robust
economic turnaround, say most analysts.
But a stabilizing or slightly improved
situation is possible.)
Rural Economic Turnaround Farther
Away: With the farm machinery industry
devastated, and with grain prices so far
below the cost of production, an econo-
mic recovery in small town Ontario is a
long ways off yet. That, according to a
U.S. market information firm (RWA)
which suggested that recovery in some
sectors other than agriculture may be
imminent.
Demand Plus Lower Brazilian Production
Helps Soys Prices: Demand for soybeans,
oil and meal by European buyers has been
brisk, according to US trade sources.
Meanwhile, domestic crushers are bidding
actively for soybeans which U.S. and
Ontario farmers are stubbornly holding
off the market. Most analysts are
convinced that soybeans have moved
from a downtrend into an uptrend. Along
with emphasis on demand, traders will be
watching South American soya produc-
tion for keys to price moves. Right now, it
appears acreage in Brazil will be 10 to
150/0 below year ago levels. And heavy
rains accompanied by vicious winds in
early November may have washed away
fertilizer and done enough general dam-
age that yields in the major province of
Rio Grade do Sul will be down 1001o. It is