The Rural Voice, 1979-08, Page 19The Voice of A Farmer
by Adrian Vos
Second guessing?
We have just shipped a truckload of finished pigs to the Blyth
assembly yard; moved some 60 weaned pigs to the finishing
barn; put some fresh weaned pigs on the weaner decks and took
four gilts and sows to the dry sow barn for fresh production.
The temperature is about thirty degrees and the aura around
my person may be visible, and is noticeable for sure.
But let's talk about what I see in the crystal ball on livestock
prices in the future.
Cattle prices will remain fair for the next couple of years, for
the simple reason that it takes that long for a heifer to be bred
and produce a marketable steer. In addition, many a cow/calf
operator remembers vividly the bad years of less than two years
ago, when he lost his shirt, even with the meagre help from the
government. Also the finished cattle prices are not as high as
they should be because of the competition from dropping pork
prices and more emphasis on fowl.
Prospects for the grain farmer appear to be bright. A reported
short crop in the Soviet Union at this moment has the Russians
buying great amounts of all types of grain and soyabeans.
Severe droughts are reported in India and Bangla Desh, just
when these countries were well on the way to becoming self
sufficient in grain production.
What this is doing to prices is already evident. Wheat of over
six dollars a bushel; corn edging towards the $138/tonne mark
are indications of what is to come. Let's hope that the experience
of 1974 will not be repeated, where hundreds of thousands of the
poorest starved to death.
On top of the demand for food and feed grain, the oil crisis
could well result in the manufacture of more alcohol for
automotive purposes, from corn. It is still too expensive but the
rising price of oil will soon make it economicial.
Brazil already has an official policy to convert all its motor
vehicles to an alcohol fuel. The Americans could also be so hurt
in their pride to be dependent for their fuel on the Arabs, that
they will be willing to pay some more, just to be able to thumb
their noses at Khomeni et al.
What this will do to our hog prices is not so hard to guess.
Always before in history, an increase in feed grain prices has
resulted in a decrease in hog production and a resultant price
jump, after a suitable time has elapsed.
Circumstances have changed somewhat, but not enough to
think that this won't happen this time around. Obviously, the
man who has just finished investing in a $100,000 hog barn is not
going to let it sit empty, but the farmer who has some hogs in an
old building to market some of his grain through, doesn't need
that kind of market. He can make the same money without the
hard work in the barn. There are still enough of the latter around
to influence the price to the extent to make it a profit or a loss
situation for the steady producers.
So the faster the feed grain prices increases, the faster the hog
prices will come back up. In the meantime, the pork producer
would be wise to get rid of the old sows now, and replace them
slowly with superior gilts. When the turn -around comes, he will
be ready with good quality pigs.
There you have it my friends. All I see in my crystal ball. I just
hope that my forecast is more accurate than those of the
government economists. But always keep in mind that whatever
we do in Ontario will have a minimal effect on the price of any
farm commodity.
"The best name around livestock today ..."
ARCHER'S
Clinton ,Ont,
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DAVIDSON
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THE RURAL VOICE/AUGUST 1979 PG. 17