The Lucknow Sentinel, 1996-03-13, Page 25w11
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FFi rail Pr'og
You should be informed.
by Ralph ' ce 50 50 chance of those condi*. for the .balance of this cell-
Tight
el aTight world s',.pjlies, a tionsmoving. east into the tury and possibly .:well into
drought south of theborder and American Midwest. If that haps 2015, china will continue to
a change in trade polite . i
mainland China, These are j
three of the many reasons
corn producers will be ke
smiling not only for this year
.but for, the next two, possibly
three and maybe even four
years, As Brian Doidge, lecturer
from Ridgetown College of
Agricultural
Technoogy.
stated, the
future looks
very bright for ..
pro-duceis
through to the',
end of this ;
decade. In -fact,
if certain "condiT
tions : unfold as
he believes, they..
will, $6 corn
will ,be the next
Step.,:
Doidge .got
• last February's'
• Ontario: Corn
Producers'
Association Association.
general meeting
and convention
off to a rollick_
ing; start with his•"keen, observa
tions:. and: projections. Included
in his presentation was . the.. fact,
supplies . of corn, oats, barley,
feed wheat and sorghum .are all
exceedingly tight. And not .just
in .the U.S but worldwide.
Stocks to feed ratios for all
commodities are the lowest:
they've ever.: been.
So high prices are the order
of the day, countered Doidge, a
means of rationing demand.
Until signs of that rationing are
seen, prices will continue to
climb.
Another important lactor in
the price of corn in the coming
year 'is the drought 'that's. now
affecting the Great Plains in the
U.S. Precipitation levels from
October to February were at
record lows and Doidge cited a
pens,corn will take, another. import corns,-
-
nip. O • his also stated his belief
at soybean acres in the .S.
�--will either. .constant or rise
niarginallyx, decrease as pro.
jetted by so experts. Higher
-soybean levels will mean an
increased demand for corn from
Gazing deeper into bis crys-
tal ball, Doidge predicted
exports tom the 1 LS. and over-
seas to fall off a bit. He also
weed the U.S. government is
trying to get out, of farm subsi-
dies. The` latest U.S. farm Bill
is a Seven-year deal for fanners
with annual fixed
payments until
the year 2002,
,then nothing, at
" least that's what
'they say „ now
(Doidge said he
believes Farm
Bilis will contin-
ue). In the ,end,_
agriculture will
become more
market respon-
sive. All prices
will be coming
from the market.
and not the gov-
ernment. So the
system will 'show
higher highs but
also lower lows
with more
volatilityand-
more flucttatiols;
"It's a world of more risk,
(fewer) safety nets and demands
more, market management,." said
Doidge. •
Leaving the best for last, he
boldly made his pricing predic
tion for corn Thursday, July 11
at IKomoka . (at 10:16. a.m., no
less), the price will be $4.15'.
July, plus $1.50'' basis for $5,65
or $5.80 FOB. On new crop '96,
December will peak at .$5.40
with new: corp : Oasis at about
$.75 for $4.15. And • looking
ahead to the next year, '97 crop
will be $3.19 December with a
$.65 basis for a '97 crop forward
contract offer of $3.80.
Three good years: for
Canadian ears.
•
Canadian farmers, Doidge out-
lined the American perspective
on conn, saying an expected
planting Of ` 80.5 million acres
will translate into 73rrillion
harvested. With a yield (likely)
around 113.bu/ac (the' record'is
136 bu/ac). ° production will be
at. 9.3 ; billion,. bushels with
stocks just' `under a : billion -a
stocks to use ratio of 10.6 per
cent, the second lowest ever.
And low stocks to use ratios°
should continue - for the rest of
the decade. Even with yields, of
127 bu/ac, demand for Canadian
corn will stay high. . .
And then there's China, Until
1995, China was a net exporter.
Last -year, .they, became net
importer of corn and `Doidge
doesn't see that trend changing
either. In fact, , projections show
rrset
sound o
iereos from
'Crop Insurance premium
rates have dropped for 1996.
Soybean premium is down by
19 per cent; corn premium
down. 15 per cent; colored bean
down 17 per cent; canola pre
:miunn down .:13 per cent; and
.white bean premium is down
by 18 per cent.
The floating price paid to
farmers with .claims is no
longer capped at the Market
Revenue support level. 'Fhis
means the price paid. for Crop
Insurance claims will be
allowed to, rise to the true float--
ing price.
The reseeding benefit has
been increased for white beans,
eanola,'red spring wheat and
sunflowers.'' .
For further information con-
tact S ann^ ,, radshaw : District
Co-ordinator, : at "the`Clinton
,OMAFM office at (519) 482-
3428 or J-800465-5170.
5-51'70.,