HomeMy WebLinkAboutClinton News Record, 2016-11-23, Page 11Election impact: Trump's anti -trade stance
could hurt Southwestern Ontario interests
John Miner
Postmedia Network
Southwestern Ontario is
one of the most vulnerable
regions in the country if Don-
ald Trump follows through on
promises to rip up trade deals
and toughen border controls
now that he is elected presi-
dent of the United States,
economists said Wednesday.
"We are probably the most
exposed region when it comes
to the changes Trump is talk-
ing about," said Western Uni-
versity economist Mike Mof-
fatt. "Southwestern Ontario is
an exporting region, a trade
region. Anything that makes
trade more difficult is not at all
good for our region:'
There are still big question
marks about how much of
what Trump said about trade
-- he repeatedly called NAFTA
the worst trade deal in world
history -- was just campaign
rhetoric and how much was
something he plans to move
on.
Given the support his anti -
NAFTA comments gave him,
there is no possibility he will
abandon the issue, said Don
Abelson, director of the Can-
ada -U.S. Institute and chair of
the political science depart-
ment at Western University.
"There is no way he is walk-
ing away from it, the question
is how do we protect our inter-
ests going forward. How do
we limit the damage this will
cause? It is going to affect us in
Southwestern Ontario given
our proximity to the U.S. bor-
der ," Abelson said.
Trump as president will
have the executive power to
abrogate the trade treaties
with six months notice, Abel-
son said.
Moffatt said there are sev-
eral big worries for the
region.
One is the fate of the
Trans -Pacific Partnership
trade deal among 12 Pacific
Rim countries, including
Canada and the United
States.
Beef and pork farmers in
Southwestern Ontario were
counting on the deal to open
massive markets for their
products, as well as agri-
food industries in the region.
"It doesn't look that is
going to happen now. United
States effectively has a veto
on TPP and I can't see this
administration passing that.
It is going to be unfortunate
for us."
More uncertain is what
will happen to NAFTA, he
said.
"Automotive supply
chains run through Mexico.
It is going to be difficult for
our Canadian assemblers to
operate in a world where
there are tariffs between
Mexico and the United
States. It is going to be a
tough situation for us," Mof-
fatt said.
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Moffatt predicts the uncer-
tainty over trade deals will
prevent companies from mak-
ing any long-term plans in the
region until they see how the
situation plays out.
"There is a lot of wait and
see that is going to cause a
slowdown in business invest-
ment over the next year or
two:'
Douglas Porter, chief econ-
omist for BMO, said Trump's
election could turn out to be a
mixed bag for the region.
In the short term, the eco-
nomic uncertainty isn't help-
ful and there is the potential
for supply chains important to
Southwestern Ontario to be
disrupted, he said.
But other economic meas-
ures advocated by Trump,
such as fiscal stimulus and
cuts to personal and corpo-
rate taxes, could actually
improve the U.S. economy
and boost Canada's main eco-
nomic engine, exports, Porter
said.
To head off potential dam-
age, Abelson said it is impor-
tant Canada work closely with
allies in the U.S., including in
Congress and state govern-
ments, to make sure Canadian
concerns are heard.
It is also important for the
Trudeau government to move
ahead with formation of a
Cabinet -level committee that
will focus on Canada -U.S.
relations.
"Canada is often a difficult
sell in Washington. It is a rela-
tionship that constantly needs
to be nurtured," Ableson said.
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