Clinton News Record, 2016-03-30, Page 44 News Record • Wednesday, March 30, 2016
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Flood emergency planning meeting told major floods not expected this spring
Agencies need to be
ready to respond to
weather changes
Special to Clinton News Record
Emergency coordinators and
municipal staff were among close to
30 attendees at an annual flood
emergency planning meeting
hosted by the Ausable Bayfield Con-
servation Authority (ABCA) on
Thursday, March 10, 2016 at the
Masonic Hall in Exeter. There were
four presenters including Geoff
Coulson who is well-known in
newspapers and on television and
radio as a Warning Preparedness
Meteorologist at Environment and
Climate Change Canada.
Coulson has been a meteorologist
with Canada's environment depart-
ment for more than 30 years. He has
been one of the two Warning Pre-
paredness Meteorologists in Ontario
for more than a decade. The pre-
senter spoke to flash floods which
tend to result from intense rainfall
over a relatively small area. Flood-
waters can rise and fall rapidly with
little or no warning. "By the time the
weather pattern has formed, the rain
may be occurring already," Coulson
said. Unlike in the United States,
Canada does not have something
that is specifically called a flash flood
warning, according to the speaker. In
Canada, there are severe thunder-
storm warnings that make specific
mention of flash flooding as a con-
cern. Land use, topography, and
existing ground wetness are factors
which can influence whether flash
flooding will occur.
The speaker encouraged munici-
pal staff and emergency coordina-
tors to be mindful of all statements
and bulletins that are issued by Envi-
ronment and Climate Change Can-
ada as each message that is issued
starts to paint a picture of the
weather event. Watches and warn-
ings are reserved for when weather
events are closer to occurring but
forecasters try to provide informa-
tion in the lead -up to the event. They
may issue a special weather state-
ment in the morning of what might
be an active day. The watches them-
selves are very useful, he said, even if
there is not yet enough data yet to
support a full warning. "If your area
is within the watch, that is some-
thing you want to be paying atten-
tion to," he said.
Coulson spoke both of the new
and improved tools that help his
department to better understand
weather systems but also to the chal-
lenges when localized flooding
experienced by a community is not
reflected in the levels detected in
nearby rain gauges. Speaking to
local examples, such as Seaforth and
Nairn, sometimes a flash flood may
hit only a small area. The forecasters
may be able to predict that storms
are possible in a three -county area,
for instance, but the storm may only
hit part of one county. "While we're
better now at recognizing the
weather patterns that may lead to
flash flooding, the areas we're deal-
ing with are still much, much larger
than where a storm may actually
form," he said. When storms start to
form, radar remains the number one
tool they have to track the storms
and to say which storms have the
potential for flash flooding, he said.
Coulson has worked in weather
forecasting, training, software devel-
opment, and outreach. He has
helped to provide targeted weather
information to clients and media
before, during, and after severe
weather events in Ontario. He also
helps to train a number of key
groups in understanding Ontario
weather patterns. Coulson's clients
include emergency management
organizations, municipalities, fed-
eral departments, provincial minis-
tries, and the media. He also man-
ages the CANWARN storm spotter
network in Ontario. He said these
volunteers are an integral part of the
Severe Weather Watch and Warning
Program of Environment and Cli-
mate Change Canada.
The presenter also talked about
the changing Canadian climate. He
spoke to projected impacts of a
changing climate including possible
health impacts from an increasing
number of warmer days. There is
also an expected decrease in the
number of extremely cold days. Cli-
mate models suggest it is likely that,
as our climate continues to change,
we will experience an increase in
intensity and frequency of heavy
rainfall events, ones that could cause
flash floods. There may be flooding
and watershed management chal-
lenges in the wintertime as tempera-
tures rise with a changing mix of pre-
cipitation, more rainfall and freezing
rain, a greater chance of ice storms,
and potential for wintertime floods,
he said.
Switching from climate to
weather, Coulson said that there
might be a mix of precipitation left
this season but that a major dump of
snow is unlikely. In effect, he said,
spring is here. "The trend we've seen
so far is for warmer than normal
conditions to continue," he said.
Other speakers at the flood emer-
gency planning meeting included
Stephen Jackson, Flood and Erosion
Safety Services Coordinator with
Maitland Valley Conservation
Authority (MVCA). He spoke about
emergency planning along the lake -
shore and the threat of bluff failure.
There are emergency response chal-
lenges, said Jackson, if a bluff
collapses.
Jackson spoke about an emer-
gency exercise held in the Township
of Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh,
north of Goderich. He said that it
was a good opportunity for fire,
police and emergency medical ser-
vices to familiarize themselves with
shoreline hazards and response
challenges.
Jackson said the water level of
Lake Huron has rebounded and
nearshore and lake -effect erosion
is a concern. "We're seeing this
erosion this summer," he said.
Wind, waves, and currents can
erode soil and sand even underwa-
ter. Land above water may appear
stable but this hidden nearshore
erosion can actually make banks
and bluffs unstable for the homes
and buildings built up above.
"Every time we have an intense
storm event, that really high veloc-
ity erodes the clay till and these
banks are cut back," he said. "The
difficulty with bluff erosion is you
can't say 'in two weeks there is
going to be a failure,' or 'in a
month, there is going to be a fail-
ure; " but the risk remains that
some shoreline structures will
"end up in the lake" when erosion
happens and banks collapse. Tree
planting is helpful to stabilize
banks but Jackson showed a slide
of a failure along the shoreline
illustrating that just because there
are trees in place on a bank there is
no guarantee there won't be ero-
sion or failure.
The Land and Water Technolo-
gist with ABCA, Davin Heinbuck,
was the meeting's third presenter.
He outlined the results of a flood
emergency messaging test exercise
conducted by staff in early March
to ensure flood communications
systems worked well in advance of
spring flood messages.
The presenter also spoke about
current watershed conditions.
Heinbuck noted that a Watershed
Conditions Statement - Flood Out-
look, Water Safety was issued on
March 8 based on melting of the
final snowpack and the forecast of
precipitation. This winter doesn't
pose the ice jam risk of other win-
ters and there isn't the snow pack
that poses the flooding threat of
some other years, according to the
Land and Water Technologist. Still,
he said, a heavy rainfall between
25 and 50 millimetres would be
enough to get the water rising and
streams flowing rapidly. "With the
really wet ground, the biggest
threat right now is heavy rainfall,"
Heinbuck said.
Although there is no foreseen
risk of damage from ice jams this
year, Heinbuck pointed to some
local examples of ice jam and flood
damages in recent years in areas
including Nairn, Seaforth, and
parts of Middlesex County. He
spoke about the water levels of
lakes Huron and Michigan and
how they have rebounded by
about a metre since the same time
in 2013.
The Water and Planning Man-
ager for ABCA, Alec Scott, was the
fourth and final presenter at the
meeting. He outlined agency roles
and responsibilities under the
ABCA Flood Emergency Plan. His
talk included some of the provin-
cial responsibilities, municipal
responsibilities to deal with flood-
ing, and conservation authority
responsibilities for flood forecast-
ing and warning and providing
information to support municipal
response efforts. "Flooding does
happen," Scott said, showing slides
of different flood events in recent
years. There can be stretches of
time when there are very few flood
events but then several flood
events can happen close together,
he said.
Scott outlined the three different
levels of flood messages:
1) Watershed Conditions State-
ment - Flood Outlook, Water Safety
2) Flood Watch
3) Flood Warning
Flood messages are posted at
abca.on.ca. He outlined conserva-
tion authority programs that help to
prevent and reduce flood damage,
including emergency planning;
flood forecasting and warning; ero-
sion control projects; dam opera -
lion; regulations; and plan input and
review.
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