The Times Advocate, 2006-03-29, Page 17Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Exeter Times -Advocate
17
Avon Maitland hears report on declining enrolment
By Stew Slater
SPECIAL TO THE
TIMES -ADVOCATE
SEAFORTH -
On the very
evening the
Thames Valley
District School
Board
announced a
draft plan to
close 21
schools, based
partly upon
information
provided by the
C.N. Watson
Group, the Avon
Maitland
District School
Board received
its own report
from the
Mississauga -
based consul-
tants, highlight-
ing 15 -year pro-
jections for
declining stu-
dent enrolment.
Late last year,
the C.N. Watson
Group used its
analysis of
future demo-
graphics in the
former Oxford,
Elgin and
Middlesex
County school
boards to rec-
ommend the
closure of 61
schools over the
next four years.
The board's
provincially -
required Capital
Planning report,
released Feb.
28, suggested
following
through on 21
of those recom-
mendations,
including the
closure of
Lucan Public,
Biddulph
Central and
McGillivray
Central schools.
Unlike the
Thames Valley
board, however,
the Avon
Maitland board
stopped short of
requesting rec-
ommendations
from the con-
sultants.
Instead, the
Avon Maitland
report, entitled
"Demographic
Trends and
Associated
Enrolment
Projections"
and presented
to trustees on
the same night
as the Thames
Valley
announcement,
provided only
analysis about
how many stu-
dents will be
enrolled
between now
and 2020.
"In past
accommodation
reviews, (the
Avon Maitland
board) got criti-
cized for not
coming to the
public with
independent
numbers about
future enrol-
ment,"
explained busi-
ness superin-
tendent Janet
Baird -Jackson
after the meet-
ing. She added
the board will
now take the
C.N. Watson
information to
community-
based school
councils begin-
ning this spring,
in preparation
for its next full-
scale accommo-
dation review.
C.N. Watson
Group senior
consultant Jack
Ammendolia's
report tracked
the numbers of
children from
various differ-
ent age groups
during past
census periods,
and attempted
to project that
15 years into
the future.
Important fac-
tors included
birth rates,
migration into
and out of the
district, and
something
called "appor-
tionment" -
which refers to
the percentage
of the area's
school -aged
children who
attend school in
either the pub-
lic, Catholic or
non publicly -
funded educa-
tion systems.
"Population
growth by nat-
ural increase
(births versus
deaths) is pretty
well done as we
know it," the
C.N. Watson
Group repre-
sentative said.
A new factor
being consid-
ered, he said, is
the ratio of stu-
dents in Grades
6, 7 and 8 ver-
sus those in
Junior
Kindergarten,
Senior
Kindergarten
and Grade 1.
"If you know
that the num-
bers in your
primary grades
are less than
your senior
grades, then
you know that
enrolment is
going down,"
Ammendolia
explained.
Speaking to
reporters after
his presenta-
tion,
Ammendolia
admitted that
projected enrol-
ments in the
Avon Maitland
board are gen-
erally similar to
those in other
rural -based
school boards,
where school
closures have
been proposed
recently. But he
cautioned that
such decisions
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"depend on
what the board
has as its plan-
ning priorities .
.. The (demo-
graphic) num-
bers are not the
sole determin-
ing factor in
deciding
whether or not
a school is
going to close."
Perth East
representative
Tina Traschel,
the only Avon
Maitland
trustee whose
territory doesn't
include a town
large enough
for a secondary
school, won-
dered whether
some of the fac-
tors considered
by the C.N.
Watson Group
are relevant in
rural areas. In
particular, she
mentioned new
residential
developments,
which are often
not a priority in
agriculture -
based munici-
palities.
Ammendolia
agreed it can be
difficult to accu-
rately track
enrolment in an
area where
data must be
collected on a
municipality -
wide basis as
opposed to, in
some cases, a
city block -by -
city block basis.
He noted that,
when one or
two students
leave a rural
area, it can
have a much
greater effect
than when one
or two students
leave a city
neighbourhood.
"It definitely is
a greater chal-
lenge in the
rural areas," he
said before
explaining C.N.
Watson has
considerable
experience
working in
rural Ontario,
and is confident
the company's
methods are
effective in such
cases.
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