The Wingham Advance-Times, 1985-03-20, Page 30Page l•6 -Cnossro adsMar. 20, 1985
ROGER ABBOTT AND
JOYCE DAVIDSON
HOST ACTRA AWARDS
Joyce Davidson and Roger
Abbott have been named
hosts of the 1985 ACTRA
Awards, honoring excellance
in television and radio, to be
televised live on CBC Tele-
vision on Wednesday, April 3
at 8 p.m. from The Congress
Centre in Ottawa. Confirmed
to perform at the ceremony
are The Nylons, David
Broadfoot and the RCMP
Band.
Host -interviewer Davidson
and writer -performer Abbott
will host the 14th annual
presentation of the
"Nellies," Canada's longest -
established ' performance
awards ceremony. Joyce
Davidson recently hosted
her own series, "Parenting",
on CBC Television. Roger
Abbott, one of the founders of'
the Royal Canadian Air
Farce comedy learn, has
,claimed a total of eight
ACTRA Awards with his
fellow farceurs. He is
currently serving his second
two-year term as president
of the Toronto Branch of the
ACTRA Writers Guild.
Over three hundred
writers, performers and pro-
grams were nominated in 21
award categories by peer
committees in ACTRA's
fourteen branches across
Canada. Panels of independ-
ent national judges will
select three finalists in each
category. From among the
finalists, the same judges
will select the winners by
secret ballot.
Texaco Canada sponsors
the Awards for the first time
this year, and has already its
participation in the 1986
ACTRA Awards.
• THE OLD SIGNPOSTS'
ARE WRONG
The extraordinary swings
of ups and downs in the
economy, rushes of growth
followed by slowdowns and
recessions, have been char-
acteristic of the post-war
economy in North America. -
The changes have occurred
with a great deal of regular-
ity, so much so that many
have come to believe that
once you have mastered the
historical sequence, the
future can be predicted.
However, in this era, the old
signposts are no longer
valid, so most of the conven-
tional wisdom about the
future is incorrect.
The problem of sorting out
the cyclical fluctuations in
the economy has occupied
most forecasters in industry.
Generally, they have con-
structed a "model" of al
typical cycle.
First, a demand for con-
sumer goods leads to retail
sales. In order to meet the
incoming orders, retailers
start buying more goods. In
turn, manufacturers have to
increase production, more
people are hired to meet in-
creased production
schedules, and then pro-
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&ulcers must increase
capacity. This leads to
double ordering as pro-
ducers order capital goods
which also require more
goods to make these capital
goods. Then inventories are
built as manufacturers need
moire row materials to pro-
cess into these capital goods.
As inventories are accu-
mulated, demand for credit
tightens as banks lend
money to producers to
purchase raw materials. As
credit, tightens, interest
rates rise and then prices
start to move higher as a
result of increased demand.
Prices firm further, stock
Markets rise, and optimism
reigns.
What happens then as
wages and prices rise?
Credit becomes less avair-
able, and tight money chokes
off spending plans and
makes new projects appear
unprofitable.
Few of these distortions
have developed this time
around. Overheating with
accelerating inflation in re-
action to tighter money and a
credit crunch have not been
apparent in this cycle.
Hence, cheerful forecasts
have emanated from the
traditional, students of the
business cycle.
What most optimists fail to
see now, however, is that the
exchange rates of the U.S.
dollar and other currencies
have changed the rules of the
game. The imbalances and
overheating which normally
characterize the economy at
peaks have not surfaced.
They have been suppressed
by the soaring U.S. dollar
and the trade deficit of the
United States. Hence, the old
signposts no longer point in
the right direction, so few
can read the directions.
The incredibly rapid rate
of import penetration in the
U.S. economy is more im-
portant than any other in-
dicator of trouble. The huge
trade deficits of the U,S.• are
destroying the manufactur-
ing sector of the U.S.
economy and the Canadian
economy as well. The torrent
of imports is damaging the
economy far more severely
than any inventory ac-
cumulation ever did in other
cycles.
Also, the overvalued U.S.
dollar is leading to the over -
industrialization and over-
expansion of the economies
of the Pacific Rini, particu-
larly Japan, Korea, and
Taiwan.
Hence, those who believe
that 1985 will be a prosperous
year because few of the
usual indicators of trouble
are present are misreading
the situation. Until the U.S.
dollar declines significantly,
the problems will only
worsen, f and the damage
could be very severe indeed.
However, a decline in the
U.S. dollar could mean much
more inflation in the
economy south of the border.
It is appropriate to realize
that because of all kinds of
changes, we are in a differ-
ent type of situation, one un-
precedented in recent
economic history.
H. GORDON •GREEN.
If anyone ever gets around.
to a serious consideration of
those qualities and traditions
which keep us Canadians dif-
ferent from our cousins
south of.the border, I think,
he would have to talk about
our remarkable reluctance
to display our emotions.
• I'll admit that we're pretty
quick to stand up on ow hind
'legs to protest any •asper-
sions to the Queen or the flag
— even. though it took •us
years of arguing to decide
• just what the flag should be
— but we are certainly not as,
ready to praise each other as
we are our country.
On the contrary, many a
Canadian seems to consider
it a mark of weakness or of
sentimentality to grant any
but- the_ most •grudging of
compliments to his neighbor,
no matter how deserving of
compliment that neighbor
might be. And strange as it
• may seem, the closer the
• friend, the more pronounced
that reluctance.
I suppose we may blame
our British and Scandi-
navian ancestors for some of
• that reserve. The Scots in
particular have a reputation
• for being tight-lipped but I
• think that Canadiansarean-
clinee to hate demonstration
even more than the Scots.
, I recall the story which
novelist Hugh MacLennan
tells of the time when he was
a youth in Cape Breton and
Channel Master'
A Division of Crown Controls Mfg Ltd
33 Gaylord Road, St Thomas, Ont N5P 3R9
one winter's day he received
the wonderful news that he
had just been awarded a
Rhodes scholarship at
Oxford. As might be ex-
pected, Hugh's first reaction
after reading the letter was
to rush outside to give the
• news to -his 'father who wag.
just then shovelling the snow
from the front walk.
But his father paused just
• long enough to hear what
Hugh had to tell him, merely
grunted, and then went back
to his shovelling.
I recall that my own father
would never, never voice any
praise of his bays in' their
presence. Criticism we
heard often, but if we wanted
to knott, what the old man
was really thinking about
some of -our prouder accom-
plishments, we had to wait
till bedtime when we could
put our ears to the stove pipe
and hear what he was saying
to mother , about us in the
kitchen below.
But the most memorable
story I can recall in this re-
gard was that of the Presby-
terian Scot who was just
coming away from the
cemetery after burying his
wife. The old fellow allowed
hims elLno_tears, but_as_he
was going out the gate he
was heard to say to one of his
friends, "I loved.that woman
so much that I had to bite my
lip sometimes to keep from
telling her!"
. • • = , •
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