The Goderich Signal-Star, 1978-08-31, Page 28PAGE 10A--T1IE GODER1CH SIGNAL -STAR, THURSDAY, AUGUST 31, 1978
Unemployment reaches
7.3% in Ontario as of July
BY
JACK RIDDELL,
M.P.P.
As of July, th
seasonally adjuste
figure for unemploymen
in Canada was 927,000 (0
8.4 percent). For Ontario
the seasonally adjuste
figure was 309,000 (7.
percent). Against thi
background of nation
wide unemployment,
recent report
Statistics Canada i
particularly interesting
The report "Out of Schoo
- Into the Labour Force"
concerns trends and
prospects for enrolment
school leavers and the
labour force in Canada
the 1960s through 1980s. It
provides a general
overview 'of expected
changes in the manpower
supply from Canada's
education systems and
possible implications.
Declining enrolment
has been the norm rather
than the exception for
elementary schools since
1970; secondary schools
are now experiencing the
same decline, which will
be felt at the post-
secondary level in the
1980s.
The sequence of the
postwar baby boom, the
subsequent precipitous
drop in births and the
upturn since 1973 has
created a wave and
trough effect in
population figure, which
is seen to move through
the education system into
the labour force. For
example,. four to 17-year-
olds, who -were 29.0
percent of he total in
1971, will decrease t�20.1
percent by 1986, while the
25 to 44 age group will rise
from 25.1 percent to 33J
percent. School
enrolment closely follows
population trends,
because ..of the com-
pulsory nature of
elementary and much
secondary school
education: at the post-
• secondary level, the size
of the 18 to 24 group is a
determining factor. It has
been projected that this
latter age group will grow
approximately 1.2 per-
cent annually to 3.4
million by the early 1980s,
when it will diminish - to
2.7 million by the mid -
19905. (a 21 percent drop)
and increase thereafter.
The projected post-
secondary enrolment in
the Canada Statistics
Report is based on the
assumption that the
enrolment rate will
decline from 19.4 percent
in .1976 to 17.4 percent in
1986, because of: a labour
market surplus of post-
secondary graduates in
some disciplines, with
consequent unem-
ployment, un-
deremployment and
• decreasing wages
relative to other workers;
a diminishing demand for
teachers into the 1980s as
elementary -secondary
enrolment continues to
decrease; and con-
tinuation of the recent
drop ' in the 'total
proportion of government
expenditures allocated to
education (from 22.2
percent in 1970 to 17.0
percent in 1975).
A slowly increasing 18-
24 age --group, * combined
with a falling enrolment
rate results in more or
less stable post-
secondary enrolment
between 1977 and 1982 of
about 613,000 students.
The subsequent decline in
the 18-24 age group is
expected to cause
enrolment to drop to
around 550,000 by 1986.
This is likely to continue
•into the early 1990s. Part-
time enrottnent has been
excluded from the study'
and it must be remem-
bered that part-time
students constitute a
significant proportion of
post -secondary
enrolmentz an estimated
24 percent in 1975.
Phenom inal labour
force growth due to
-emergence of the baby
boom . generation from
the education system has
been accentuated by a
rapidly increasing
percentage of working
women (33.9 percent
participation rate in 1965
to 45,9 percent in 1977)
and highimmigration.
rebel AM- io
labour force increased art
' average 3.4 percent a
year, substantially above
other industrialized
nations, including -, the
e U.S. The annual influx of
d job -seeking school
t leavers is estimated to
✓ have peaked in 1977.
, Assuming 100,000 annual
d net migration and a
3 moderately rising par-
s ticipation rate, labour
- force growth should fall
a from a yearly average of
y 3.6 percent in the 1970-75
s period L 2.7 percent
during 1975-80, 2.1 per -
1 cent during 1980-85 and
1.9 percent during 1985-
90.
, For the purpose of the
Canada Statistics Report,
- everyone enrolled full-
time at any level in the
education system during
one academic year, but
not the next is a "school
leaver". This includes all
students who leave school
for any reason, graduates
or not. Those remaining
in the country and
eligible for work are
referred to as "potential
labour force entrants"
The number of potential
labour force entrants
represents the annual
supply of "new" man-
power available to the
labour force from the
education systern. While
there are other sources of
manpower (immigration
and the household sec-
tor), the education
system is the principal
one.
Due to the baby boom,
the annual manpower
• supply from the
education system has
increased rapidly. In
1976, 60 percent more
• school leavers became
available •to the work
force than in 1966 (580,000
compared with 360,000).
This figure is expected to
rise until 1980, when it
will decline each year
until the early 1990s. By
the mid-1980s ap-
proximately the same
number of young people
will be leaving school and
seeking employment as
in the 1970s.
Secondary -school
leavers have been and
will continue to be more
numerous than their post-
secondary counterparts.
But the real difference
has been the respective
rates at which output
from the two levels has
increased. Between 1966
and 1976, the annual
number of labour force
entrants from secondary
school rose only 26 per-
cent (from 294,000 to
372,000) while those with
post -secondary education
increased 210 percent
(from 67,000 to 208,000).
By 1986, the number with
secondary education will
have shrunk to almost the
1966 level, and those
leaving the post-
secondary system will be
more than triple the 1966
figure.
Variations in the past
were caused by the
tendency for a larger
proportion off young
people to attend post-
secondary institutions. In
the medium-term future,
the population's changing
age composition will
increase the size of the
post -secondary -educated
segment vis-a-vis those
with secondary
schooling. This results in
-relatively more highly
Turn to page 11A •
'The HURON COUNTY
•HOME SHOW
•WINNERS
Over 50 door prizes were given away during the
Huron County Home Show which was held in
Goderich last month. Here is a partial list of some
of the winners A complete list of all the winners
- is available at Discount Dave's head office. Suite
1601, 275 Dundas Street, London, Ontario, N6B
3L 1.
SPINDRIFT SAILBOAT
Shan Bowers. RR 1, Kincardine, Ontario
C.C.M. 10 -SPEED BIKE •
E. Nutley, R.R. 6. Goderich,' Ontario
26" FRANKLIN FIREPLACE
Chris Hyde. 163 Suncoast, Goderich. Ontario
CEDAR SWING
Mrs. A. Best. RR. 2, Grand Bend, Ontario
BAR SINK
Luella Noble. 330 Carling Terrace, Wingham
MIAMI CAREY VANITY
Gerald Willis. 231 Carling St. Exeter. Ont.
G -E STEAM IRON
Dennis Regier. Box 225. Zurich. Ontario
BLACK & DECKER CIRCULAR SAW
Lois McNally. 379Catherine St_ Wmgham. Ontario
4' SET, KITCHEN CABINETS
John Fahner. RR 2. Crediton. Ontario ,
G -E CARVING KNIFE •
W.F. Arhle. 216 Catherine. Wingham, Ont
SINGLE LAUNDRY TUB
Hugh Rundle. R.13. 1. Centralia. Ont.
TERRACE PINE PATIO TABLE
George Hiles. R R. 2. Goderich, Ontario
ROCKWELL 9" TABLE SAW
Roy Gingerich. R R. 1, Walton. Ontario
10 -SPEED C.C.M. BICYCLE
Jim Elliot. RR 3. Goderich. Ontario
9x12.CONSTELLATION CARPET
Mrs -Harold .Robinsorr.Ocirrie.„Ontatio
Thank
You
From Discount Dave
Over 3.500 people attended the Huron County Home
Show which was held in Goderich on July 7.8 and 9
More than 60 exhibitors were on hand to show and
demonstrate the newest and finest Oviducts in home
improvement. And more than 50 door pr,zes were
given away.
We congratulatethe winners. and' we hope that all .-
those who attended came away.from the show with a
better understanding of the prodUtts on display and
'more confidence in the realization that most do-it-
yourself projects are easier than you think.
We're grateful to those who helped make the Show an
outstanding success. particularly the Members of the
various service clubs who handled the ticket sales.
And we at Discount Datie's mist that the Show gave
everyone a better insight to home improvement.
• .
DAVE CONKLIN
President
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