HomeMy WebLinkAboutThe Goderich Signal-Star, 1973-07-19, Page 12'b
044
god
tM
id
1
9
1
••• .
M
•r
w
• • US:
L••:
N•••.
. `r:
1
um
■
1
••••r:
NO
1
• Y
•
,r'•••
•
;..r'•'
•
• t: t
i.•,
••,"..t▪ eP"'
••j•r
•S
,''•
•
•
•
9...
410
V!
0
0
1
O.
ihor
0
0
;lea
Cgs
0
V
V!4
ono,
Planning Board- to hold
specaI "Plaza" meeting
At a special meeting next
Tuesday July 24 the Goderich
Planning Beard will deal ex-
clusively with matters in-
volving the proposed shopping
mail which has sparked debate
between the developers (Sun-
coast Estates), the Goderich
Businessmen's Association and
a Citizens Committee organized
to give the support of local
shoppers to the pian.
At a planning Board meeting
,last Tuesday County Planning
Director Gary Davidson presen-
ted the members with a four
page summary of the two retail
studies completed . on the
question to date. Onp by con-
sultants for Suncoast Estates
and a •secpnd y , consultants
hired by the'Businessmen's
'Association.
The comparative analysis,
which Planning Board mem-
bers have been studying, is not
intended to support one or the
"'other of the studies, Mr, David-
son explained. "My report just
looks at the methods used to
arrive at the findings and comb
pares those findings," he ad-
ded.
"Both studies have under-
taken to review the need for ad-
ditional retail space for both
food and Department Store
Type `Merchandising in
Goderich," his report observed.
"The basic methodology is
similar. Both studies attempt
earlier, both studies adopted a
1971 base of 10,779 and arrived
at a projected 1981 population
of 11,708 for an increase of 929
people for the period 1971-
1981.
"For the D.S.T.M. trade
area, both studies adopted 1971
base population of 34,706 and
project a 1981 population of
37,334. The increase for , the
period being 2,528 people. ,
"Hence, the basic point here
is that the two studies start
from the same basic
population. However, with
reference to food sales the
methodology differs. The
MacLaren report bases its
projection on a relationship to
disposable income per capita. -
"This factor is related to
retail sales as a percentage of
disposable income. From this
estimate of retail sales per
capita is developed. Then, food
as a percentage of retail sales is
calculated. From this per
capita food . sales are derived.
The per capita food sales figure
is the key one and the involved
process outlined above is used
because the figure being projec-
ted is disposable income. From
the projection, per capita food
sales are derived.
"A difficulty comes in
estimating the increase in
disposable income. The
MacLaren report does not go
into great length in explaining
to calculate the need for ad- this factor. However, from
ditional retailing based on reworking their figures it would
determining the amount of ex- appear that they have used a
penditures and relating this to 5% increase in disposable in-
square,footage based on an come until 1976 and then 4
estimate of verage earning i/z% increase from . 1976 to
per square foot required .to sup-
port a viable operation."
• Both studies adopt the same
trade area," for both food and
'department store type- mer-
chandising (I3.S.T.M.)
Mr. Davidson's report on the
surveys follows with the
MacNaughton Study (M -N)
being the surve6 compiled for,
the Businessmens Association
and the McLaren Study (M -L)
..- for -Su nTcoast--Estates: - -
"For the food trade area both
studies use the - same
population figure of 10,779.
Broken down as 7310 urban
'(Goderich) and 3,469 rural
(Colborne and Goderich Twp.),
It should be noted that in'both
cases (urban and rural) the
population estimates are on the
high side. .
"The MacNaughton Study
projects population based on
1% per year urban and 1/2%
per year rural. These projection
constants are bas&d on the
assumptions of ehe Official
-Plan for the County and have
been adopted by both studies.
Assuming the lower base of
10,282, population for . 1971 a
potential 1981 population of
11,168 is projected. Assuming
the higher Mase of 10,779
population for 1971 a potentila
1981 population of 11,708 is
projected. The difference being
540 people or approximately
5%.
"However,
as indicated
1981. If these are constant
*6161‘.971 dollars then, ..• with
the assumed 4%. inflation rate,
actual dollar income would be
rising at approximately 9% per
year,
"In ,projecting food sales the
' MacLaren study • assumes a
constant relationship between
food sales and retail sales. This
being 22.5% foe urban 24.6%
for rural:
"The MacNaughton study
starts directly with food expen-
ditures •and bases projections
on known increases in reported
sales between 1961 and 1966
(1966 is the last year
available). In this period the
increase in food sales was 24%
or 4.52% annual. ,This figure
reflects inflation as well as" real
increases. This figure 4.55% is
then carried forward for the
period 1966 t�,1971 to give ex-
penditures of $458 per capita
for urban and $303 for rural for
1971.
"This represents.•a major dif-
ference in the two studies. The
MacLaren report gives per
capita food expenditures, for
1971 as $591 'for urban and
$319 for rural. This' represents
an increase of 11.5% per capita
in food expenditures per year
between 1966 and 1971 which,
based on known increase •bet-
wee*t 1961 and 1966 of 4.5%,
the MacNaughton report claims
to be too high. The MacLaren
report does not explain this
high increase in a specific man-
ner.
"Another point challenged by
the MacNaughton study is the
constant relationship between
an increase in income and an
increase in food purchases ass
suggested in the M -L study
.The M -L study does not
elaborate on this point. The M-
N study maintains that -food ex-
penditures will `decrease as a
percentage of disposable in-
come as income rises. He cites
data' suggesting that this was
the case between 1959-1967 in
Canada and 1961-1966 in
Huron County.
"From the 1971 base, using
constant 1971 dollars, the M -N
study projects a "real" increase
in food ,expenditures at a com-
pounded rate of 1.5% per an-
num. This he says is" in line
with other projections. The M-
L study indicated a rate- of
4.8% per annum.
"Hence, in pridjtc'ting""lood'
the M -L study starts at a
higher level and assumes a
higher rate of increase than the
M -N study. The 'final 'results
are, of course, quite different.
"These figures are now con-
verted into food chain store
sales. The' remaining assump-
tions for 1971 are as follows:
The M -N study assumes 85%
;,captures, the M -L study
assumes .only 80% capture of
trade area potential. Both
studies assume chain stores
.capture 76.6% of food retai]
sales. The M -N study assumes
4% tourist influx, the ,M -L
study 5% .
"The M -L study assumes an -
earning" range of $100/sq. ft. to
$165/sq. ft. Although slightly
different, there is some overlap
and both studies agree $165, is
a desirable level. Also, both
studies use 18,205 as existing
square footage.
"The decision becomes, when
will an overall addition 6,700
square feet of food space be
required? At $165 -,per square
- foot the M -L report suggests
that the space will be required
by 1975. The M -N study does
;not -see the need before' 1981. ,
'"The M -L study bases in-
creases in D.S.T.M. on in-
creases in disposable income
andolds a constant relation-
ship b relation-
,I\
these two over the
projection period. Also, the M-
L study assumes that
Goderich,'s share. of the
D.S.T.M. trade area will in-
crease from ,31.1% to 40% (or
some 28% ).
"The M -N study bases its
projections on the actual- in-
crease between 1961 and 196,
of some 4.8 per cent per annum,
which includes. inflation. They
have assumed 5% per annum
increase to 1971, At 1971, the
base year, a constant • dollar
figure is established. This is
then broken down into per
capita D.S.T.M. expenditures
and these are projected at a
real annual rate of 2% which
based on 1961-66 figures.
(continued on page 7A)
SUDCOGSt proposal_ would
build a 62,OOO,OOOpIaZU
south of municipality
When Bert Alexander an-
nounced on behalf of Suncoast
Estates last February plans for
a $2,000,000 shopping plaza off
highway 21 south of Goderich
he said he hoped Construction
might get underway by June 1
this year.
June 1 has come and gone
and' the shopping plaza is no
closer to becoming a reality
than• it was when the plans
were) first announced six mon-
the ago. So a observers feel
that it may be two years or
more bef shoppers ' could
patroniz the .new „develop
menta, if it is ever given the go
ahead by Goderich Planning
Board, Goderich Town Council
and' the Ontario Municipal
Board.
Approval for the project is
now bogged down in pages -.and
pages of retail surveys (one
from both the developers and
the Downtown Businessmen's
Association), survey summaries
from the Huron County Pla"rt=
ning Department and petitions
from the Downtown
Businessmen's Association and
a citizens group ,calling them-
selves, the "Build the Mall
Committee."
At this point in time the
Goderich Planning Board is
making review of all that paper
work, as well as hearing oral
presentations -from legal ,coun-
cil obtained by the various par-
ties, and further reviews will
eventually have to ,be carried
out by Town Council., and the
Ontario Municipal- Board.
The proposed mall, if and
when it comes a reality, will
cover 100,000 square feet and
the adjoining parking lot would
be, capable of accommodating
732 cars. .
The mall would be com-
pletely enclosed and climate
controlled. Access to stores
would be via the indoor mall or
through outside doors.
The Atlantic and"Pacific Tea
Company (A and P food stores)
has been named as the major
grocery store anchoring the
project but the name of the
other major anchor, a depart-
ment type' store, has not yet
been revealed.
In addition to the two major
stores there would also be four
to eight mailer stores included
in the completed mall
Annual tax revenue to the
municipality is estimated by
the developers at between
$65,000 'and $75,000. They also
explain that no—cost will be
assessed to the -town since the
lots involved are already ser-
viced.
First work on the proJect to
bring a shopping mall ,to
Goderich began in 1964 with
several projects being stalled in
the ° years since for various
reasonR. The present project
started well over a year ago.
Mr. Alexander feels the shop-
ping center is necessary to
"stop the drift to Stratford and
London which exists at the
present time at an alarming
rate."
"The consultants report," he
said, "indicates this drift could
be as high as $8,000,000 per
year and if not stopped it will
increase, permanently en-
dangeringthe downtown area
of O•nderich."
In announcing the proposed
mall last. February Suncoast
Estates estimated that during
Construction the project would
employ 80 to 80 men fora total
91 94,000 to 95,000 man hours.
J:
oberitb
Di
SIGNAL -STAR
SECOND SECTION
THURSDAY, JULY 19 1973
usinessmen's group
oppose only location
and magnitude'
At a press conference on
Friday .spokesmen for the
Goderich ,-Businessmen's
Association restated policy of
their 61 member group on the
.question of a shopping plaza for
the town of Goderich.
,stated in „a„.p.resentation
last February to the Goderich
Planning Board the merchants
group stressed that they were
"not opposed to the establish-
-ment of a shopping plaza in
Goderich.”
• "What we do oppose," the
group said, "is the location,
design and feasibility of the
project."
In Jelation to the feasibility
of surd` a mall the merachante
say they are concerned most by
the magnitude of, the project.
"We would have no quarrel
with a plaza on a smaller scale,
located in the downtown core
of the community."
The merchants say the shop-
ping traffic of the Community
would just be- taken from the
downtown area to the proposed
Highway ,21 south location of
the mall. "The new mall will
not bring in 'that much _will
traffic, it will only;
serve to split existing traffic,"
they said.
The Businessmen's group
suggest that the effect of such a
large mall, in the proposed
location, would be adverse to
the downtown area as well as
to the mall itself. "A mall of
,that size and location would
not be successful and it would
pull the�•Square down with it,"
they say.
If the plaza were located
down town, they say, the trtiffic
would be concentrated and the
project would be to the benefit
of the, business community,.and
shoppers alike.
At its Highway 21 location
spokesmen suggest that in a few
years the effect on Goderich's
downtown. would put
Town Council in the position of
"crying to the Ontario
Municipal Board for projects to
revitalize the commun y's
core." • �.
"This state of affairs exists in
many communities now," the
businessmen claim, "and the
Province is having to institute
special projects and provide
loan's tp municipalities in an
attempt to put new life into the
downtown business ares. Why
can't we learn from the
mistakes that have already
been made elsewhere in On-
tario?"
"No store, no matter where
you-- put it in -this town, can
compete in selection and price
with stores in London or Strat-
ford," a spokesman said, "its
just impossible."
In the policy statement put
before Planning Board last
February the Businessmen's
Association noted: "We
, question' whether or not this
establishment would significan-
tly enhance Goderich as a
regional shopping area in op-
position to the cities of Strat-
ford and, London."
"The reasons why some
people prefer to shop in the
larger centers will not change
with the introduction of the
new marketing area. It- is
possible however -that, given a
period of time, the new facility
could so dilute existing local
sales as to make the centre of
Goderich nothing more than a -
highly specialized area of ser-
vices such as lawyers and
automobile distributors and all
we will have accomplished, is to
move from a unique, tourist at-
tracting, pleasantly wooded,
marketing area to the sterile
glass and metal copy of subur-
bis...
In a petition presented to
Planning -Board, signed -by the
local businessmen, it noted.
"We feel that the location of
this new development will
detract from the Downtown
Core area. It will split the
present shopping public to the
benefit of no 'local business but
the developers who are
proposing the project, with the
probable loss in tax, revenue
from the Downtown Core Area
to the Corporation of the Town
of Goderich."
Businessmen's Association
spolesmen suggested that shop-
pers have a good look at, the
Square during Summerfest
later this month. "It will show
what we can do downtown."
They explained that
negotiations are underway for
parking 'facilities and other
projects to make downtown
ah'opping easier for their
customers.
As a solution to locating to
proposed mall outside of the
shopping core the Association
suggests development on a spur
street from the Square, poin-
ting in particular to Hamilton
Street.
They note that several
properties there are under one
ownership and could be
developed into a smaller mall
and one located in the down-
town core.
Petitionsvoice
differing views
of -plaza effect
Among the, many con-
siderations the Goderich Plan-
ning Board and Town Council
will be making during the
proposed shopping plaza debate
will be statements of opinion
from two local groups in the
form ,of petitions.
Already the officials have
received on petition, signed by
the businessmen of the com-
munity, opposing the "proposed
new' shopping plaza on the
south end of town."
The petition, submitted 'by
the Goderich Businessmen's
Association, goes on to note,
town business district.
At the July 24 meeting Plan-
ning Board will also be presen-
ted with a second petition, this
one compiled by a committee.
formed to support.the proposed
mall project.
The_ "Build the Mall Com-
mittee," under the chairman-
ship of G.R. Robertson, claims
to represent the opinions of
local shoppers and ordinary
citizens of Goderich in the
dispute.
At this moment workers for
the committee are going door to
"We feel that the location of door in an attempt, to raise
this new development will 3500 signatures of support for
detract from the downtown , the committees expressed aims.
core area. It will .split the Those aims, as outlined in an
present shopping—public .to the advertisement published in the
benefit of no local business but Signal -Star, are: "To see the
the developers who are establishment of a shopping
proposing the project, with the mall as outlined in the ap-
probable°N loss in tax revenue plication of Suncoast Estates to
from the downtown core area town council; to obtain for the
to the corporation of the town citizens of Goderich more com-
of Goderich." °' petitive pricing for goods and
"It is our understanding," commodities, to establish a
the businessmen noted in their more attractive business ap
petition, "that a positive pearance and services for the
feasibility study has been con- citizens of Goderich; to create
ducted by the developers of the
employment by retaining all, or
plaza, and. we .have no doubt in most, of the purchasing''power
our mind that the Planning of the citizens of Goderich in
Board will investigate the pros their own_ community; to
and cons of the 'document establish new sources of
before it will jeopardize our taxation on ,behalf of the
unique downtown shopping citizens of Goderich and to
core." boost the economy.of.the Town
of Goderich by inducing neigh-
boring communities to shop in
Goderich.
"An independent survey on
the effects to the downtown
shopping core should be" con-
ducted and evaluated at an
open meeting," the petition ad-
ded.
Since the submission of that
petition to Planning Board on
February 13 no independent
survey has been conducted.,but
the Businessmen's 'Association
have hired their own con-
sultant to draw a second retail
study which is now in the
hands of the municipal of-
ficials.
Next Tuesday the Planning
Board will meet with both con-
sultants and question them
regarding their findings which
differ in several respects about
the effect of a shopping plaza
on the economy of the down -
Mr. Robertson sees the com-
mittee's activities as an at-
tempt to get the resident of
Goderich involved in "par-
ticipatory democracy." He feels
that ate citizens must "tell,
town council what we want."
"Council has only heard from
two grotips,v we want them to
hear from the third," he
claims. "If the local
businessmen can't compete
with new businesses' then let
them fold," ,°Robertson a as
said.
Late last week Mr. Robertson
said he hoped to surpass his
projected figure of 3500 names
for the petition supporting
shopping mall development.
rJ