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Home My WebLink AboutTimes Advocate, 1998-03-11, Page 13Second Section - March 11, 1998 Remember this winter When the only snow "Notes -Advocate readers can find is behind'are- nas. something unusual i. happening. Weather is not only a.conversation starter. it's a topic in itself • . Snow plows were out once during Januar} and not at all during February'. Lake Huron did not.frccic over. Students did not miss a day of school and arca highways were not. closed because of inclement weather. Spring hulhs poked Mu of the soil in' Fehruary.,.The first • robin was reported on Feb.. 15 .in Exeter. A farmer was seen plowing in laic .Fchruary. The phenomenon making this •a year to remember throughout the world is known a. L1 Nino. - - • The weather has caused significant damage across North America including the ice storm. excessive rain in California and slums along the Atlantic scahoard.• But southwestern Ontario has enjoyed the mildest winter in years. . According to meteorologist Jay •Cantiibell of London. dips El Nino is signiticantly stronger than any other FI Nino. Although it reached a peak two months ago. the- c tie: t. will continue. through the spring. summer and fdl. Temperatures have been significantk above normal while snowfall has hcen below normal.' Iii January. the maximum daily temperatures were three degree. Celsius above normal hut Campbell said the real dif- ference has heen m the overnight IOW's which were six decree. Celsius -above. normal. The pervasive cloud cover. provided insulation and. kept the temperatures up. Precipitation was also up through Decemher. and January. For example, during January there was less snowfall hut three times. the normal amount of rain, mostly during the first half of the month. The last hig El Nino effect occurred during 198 and Campbell predicts a similar spring this year. March and April will have • less precipitation • than normal and it should he a nicer spring than '97. So fhr. agriculmre•has•only felt a minor:.intpact from El Nino. according to Rrian Hall. the soil and crop specialist at the Clinton -Ontario Ministry of Agriculture. Foix) and- Rural Affairs office. The trees have started to "break bud" and the- sap is 'flowing. This has prompted an early maple srup season and has also affected local apple and peach trees. - "Wrnter wheat looks particularly good. it has started to re -grow." Hall. said. . A sudden cold snap could have particularly negative effects on the wheat if water standing in the fields turns 10 ice. 11 the soil is warm and dry enough. spring cereals including wheat nr barley could he planted in March. according to Hall. C'antphell said thcrc`s more going on in weather trends than just El Nino • We need to look at -what's happening to the ocean currents." he said. -adding a number nt.organi/ations.arc "sharing thoughts and opinions." March came in like a lamb on Exeter's main street and the Ausable River, with - no snow in -sight. E/ Nino, What, when, how and why A stable high pressure system normally sits over the western Pacific Ocean. As it spins, this pressure system drags air around in a clockwise fashion helping to create the trade winds that blow along the equator from east (South America) to west (Indonesia). This drags warm surface water towards the western Pacific forcing deeper, colder water to rise to the surface in the east. This "upwelling" of cold water brings nutrients from the lower levels of the ocean's water column near the surface, drawing an abundance of fish and other wildlife. It is not clear why, but once every two to 10 years the high air pressure in the central Pacific drops slightly and wind patterns change. The easiest way to picture this is to think of the ocorin as a big bathtub, and the trade winds as an electric fan turned on con- stant high. Constantly blown water is pushed to one side. When the fan is momen- tarily set at low, gravity causes the water to spread evenly again. So when the trade winds weaken, water rolls back from the western Pacific (Indonesia) to the eastern Pacific (South America). Even if the trade winds go back to full force, the El Nino has already gathered momentum.., Warm water rolling batik ..r1c. pss the Pacific diminishes the upwelling of cold water, and changes -the ocean -atmosphere interaction. Warmer ocean temperatures result in more moisture going into the atmosphere, and storm systems that normally stay off the coast move inland. This is why California, Peru, and Ecuador receive more rain than normal. At the End... The causes of the start and end of an El Nino are still submersed in questions, but there are two likely stopping forces. Like a swinging pendulum, the water eventually turns around. While a pendulum is limited by its own weight and gravity, the El Nino eventually hits the continental land mass of South America. El Ninos also reverse before reaching South America. Trade winds regaining strength can stop the momentum and eventually reverse the flow. Occasionally, an El Nino is followed or proceeded by a La Nina. Just as the Spanish name indicates, the "girl" is the cold water sister of the warm water El Nino. So how often does the boy -child of the Pacific come out to play? Varying sources will give you varying frequencies but based on written historical records, El Ninos occur once every two to 10 years. There's more history than that, though. An Ancient Cycle Peruvian sailors from the port of Paito in northern Peru, who frequently navigate along the coast in small craft to the north and south of Paita, named this current "EI Nino", doubtlessly because it is most noticeable after Christmas." (Carillo, 1892) The term El Nino means 'child' or 'boy' in Spanish and when capitalized it refers to the Christ child. As noted in the quotation, and true to its name, the strongest effects occur around Christmas. The El Nino however, has a history that goes back to before Christ. Written records go back to the days of Spanish explorers and conquista- dors journeying to north western South America in the early 1500's. Researchers looking into writings from 5 different languages (Spanish, -English, German, French, and Dutch) found the earliest indication of an -El Nino from a 1525 account written by—Spanish sailors travelling in the seas off of Panama and the coast of Ecuador. There was no name for it at the time but accounts of ocean, wind, and weather conditions pointed to El Nino events. Less direct archaeological evidence from a catastrophic flood in the Moche Valley on the north coast of Peru also point to a very strong El Nino. The 'Chimu flood' of 1 100 A.D. has been estimated at two to four times the size of floods related to the 1925 El Nino. The 1925 El Nino is on a par with the much remembered 1982 El Nino. Looking even further, tree ring, coral and ice core studies finked to changes in climate give even earlier evidence of El Nino events. In fact, anthropological stud- ies on ancient garbage dumps even suggest that the El Nino took a 3,000 year vaca- tion 5,000 to 8,000 years ago! Regardless of how many breaks the El Nino takes, it has its place in history. With sea sur- face temperatures higher then those of 1982, this year's El Nino is already making history. (Source: M. Lau. The Weather Network Commercial Services) alth F armer s C ollectiot " of Prose poetry W}-leatkin, h• ,, A. SCti[In�U� hilx.n. P' I. 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