The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutTimes-Advocate, 1985-01-30, Page 12Times -Advocate, January 30, 1985 Page 11 Marketing expert claims future can be predicted "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it •• was the theme of David Scott's talk to a group of about 80 farmers at a day- long marketing seminar organized by Bev Hill for customers of Bill and Hill Elevators and First line Seeds. TheIllinois-based farmer, marketing analyst and consultant told the group gathered in the Stanley Community Centre that his advice was based on the premise history does repeat itself, in approximately 54 -year cycles which can be charted from the past and projected into the future. Scott's interest in repetitive cycles was motivated by personal ex- perience. In 1973 he returned to far- ming after service in the military. He had arranged to have 100 gilts ready to farrow, and weaned eight pigs per litter. They were fed $75 a ton soybean meal, and $1.50 a bushel corn. The pigs were sold in June and July at 63¢ a pound, returning a substantial pro- fit to a very happy hog producer. The next year he added another 100 gilts and raised eight pigs per litter while feeding $350 meal and $4 corn. The pigs were sold for 24¢ per pound. "I gave it all back and more", Scott said wryly. That same year , Scott and his father were feeding 200 steers. A neighbour, a man in his severities, ad- vised the Scotts to sell at 60(a pound before the Nixon -imposed freeze came off. Scott Sr. did. His son, who had dreamed of $1 beef, watched the pricedrop 15¢ a pound each day as soon as the freeze was lifted. He sold at 42t. Scott concluded there had to be some method in such marketing madness, and his investigations have convinced him there is. Scott said agriculture has made recent ad- vances in two fields, genetics and marketing. The latter has more potential for putting more money in the farmer's pocket than anything else, including increased production. tie said businesses and commodity traders have been making money for years by studying cycles, and farmers must too, if they are to sur- vive. Charting the daily, weekly, mon- thly and quarterly patch of com- modities requires an hour's work each Saturday, Scott said, and 50¢ a bushel on corn could be the difference between profit and loss. Scott handed out copies of a finan- cial timetable compiled in 1909 by TIME OUT - Keynote speaker David Scott and organizer Bev Hill chat informally during a break at a day -long marketing seminar. W.G. Gann, a stock trader who made millions between 1929 and 1934, and pinpointed through mathematical analysis the day the stock market crash that plunged America into the Great Depression would occur. The chart divides the centuries from 1784 to 2008 into 18.5 -year recurring cycles, operating within the framework of ap- proximately 54 -year long -wave cycles. According to Gann 1970 was the beginning of a new 18.5 -year business cycle with low stock prices, strikes and despair. On his chart, business was predicted to steadily improve for four years, followed by a period of alternately high and low stock prices, peaking in 1984 with a prosperous year, over -speculation, and a convic- tion the war on provertyis being won. The next phase is a crash, four years of falling stock prices, stagnating business, and unemploy- ment, culminating in a depression in 1989. The wheel has.turned full circle, and the cycle begins again. Scott said the cycles will continue, as they are precipitated and fueled by two very basic and powerful human traits, fear and greed. Scott believes individual com- modities also have their individual cycles. He discussed the cyclical chart for five common commodities. The short-term cycle is six years for soybeans, corn and hogs, nine years for wheat, and 12 for cattle Based on this, he thinks cattle prices will reach a 12 -year high this year between August and October, and said if they go above 80¢, they will go to $103.50. A graph of the weekly high -low Fri- day close on nearest corn futures con- tracts on the Chicago board from 1970 to December 1984 dramatically demonstrated his thesis. A $4 high in October 1974 was succeeded by a low of $1.80 at midpoint in late August of 1977, and peaked again in late 1980 at $3.96. Conversely, corn bottomed out at $2.12 in 1982, and is due to hit bottom again in 1988. Scott noted that seasonal lows are usually made at harvest time with grains. Occasionally a price high oc- curs at the usual low price period. This contraseasonal is always the peak of the long-term cycle, Scott said, and he urged producers witness- ing this aberration to immediately sell all their current crop and to con- tract the crop they will be growing the following year within the next two months. The patterns of the bull and bear markets were also quite evident on the corn chart. The bull market moves slowly up in three readily ap- parent drives over a period of 40 to 50 weeks, then takes 15 to 20 weeks to drop back down in two legs. The bear market, the opposite side of the coin, rises quickly in two distinct drives in the shorter period, and drops back in. three legs over the follwoing 40 to 50 weeks. SUPER SPECIAL ASSORTED VARIETIES LAURA SECORD YOGURT OR LAURA SECORD MINI -PUDDINGS YOGURT 500 g. PUDDINGS 20 oz. 4 VARIETIES SAVARIN DINNERS 312 g 1.39 ( OUR SAVE -A -TAPE PLAN CAN ASSIST THE ORGANIZATION OF YOUR CHOICE FISH IN BATTER, HIGHLINER STICKS 700 g 3.19 F1SII FRIES OR(COUNTRY OVEN BLUEBERRY OR 565 g PEACH t�. PIES29 CHOCOLATE OR ALMOND CROISSANTZ' HONEY GRAIN WHOLE WHEAT 69 BREAD 16 oz. i 3 oz. NEILSONS VENETIAN 4 VARIETIES ICE CREAM WESTONS HAMBURG OR WIENERS ROLLS WESTONS CINNAMON BUTTER HORNS • 1 LITRE 12s 6 s 1.69 99' 1.29 / SUPER SPECIAL WESTONS REGULAR, THIN OR 60% WHOLE WHEAT SANDWICH BREAD 675 g LOAF -ASSORTED VARIETIES GAY LEA YOGURT 500 9 LAYS OR RUFFLES POTATO CHIPS 1 SUPER SPECIAL REGULAF, AUTO OR FILTER 200 g SUPER SPECIAL REVIVE, TAKE 5, APPLE JUICE ORANGE, GRAPE NECTAR, McCAINS 3 IJUICES75f mL DRINKS FANCY QUALITY GREEN PEAS, CUT WAX OR GR. BEANS SEASONED WAX OR GR. BEANS OR CREAM CORN DELMONTE VEGETABLES 14 oz. OR KERNEL CORN 12 oz. KRAFT PROCESS SINGLES 16's/. CHEESE FOOD SLICES SUPER SPECIAL g 3.11?9 CRUNCHIE. WHOLE DILLS MINI -DILLS OK BREAD & BUTTER MAPLE LEAF TENDERFLAKE PURE LARD NIELSONS QUALITY SOUR CREAM TOP WIP BRAND AEROSOL CREAM 454 g 500 mL 1.19 1.29 225 g 1.59 SUPER SPECIAL ASSORTED VARIETIES PURE SPRING CRUSH or HIRES SOFT DRINKS 750 mL BOTTLES PLUS 304 DEP. CARNATION COFFEEMATE 5 VARIETIES COOKED VAN CAMP BEANS 750 14 o,.•TIN 2.99 770 SPAGHETTIBONUS PACK SAUCE �a.. I %9 FUDGEE•O(15o A FREE) COOKIES � �n Goo g . CHRISTIES BISCUITS CATELLI OLD FASHIONED 3 VARIETIES 1. 75p mL 1. �9 2 LITRE JAR BICKS PICKLES • 9 SUPER SPECIAL SPAGHETTI, SPAGHETTINI OR READY CUT MACARONI CATELLI PASTAS ARROWROOT ARROWROOT 350 g VALUABLE COUPON REDEEMABLE ONLY AT ZEHRS OR GORDONS MARKETS WITH THIS COUPON SAVE MAXWELL HOUSE GROUND COFFEE P369 KG. ONE COUPON PER PURCHASE COUPON E%FIRES FEB 9/85 006t030086Sri L 9 MAXWELL HOUSE 1.39 INSTANT COFFEE MAXWELL HOUSE ROASTED COFFEE 10 or JAR • SEE COUPON BELOW VALUABLE COUPON REDEEMABLE ONLY AT ZEHRS OR GORDONS MARKETS WITH THIS COUPON SAVE MAXWELL HOUSE INSTANT COFFEE 10 oz COUPON UPIRES FEB 9/85 COUPONMRPURCHASE 006:0360763x1 ALL PURPOSE OR WHOLE WHEAT FIVE ROSES FLOUR 2,.. 2.59 3 FLAVOURS Of INSTANT STYLE MILK MATE SYRUPS 350 all 1.19 SUPER SPECIAL POPULAR GENERAL MILLS CEREAL CHEERIOS 425 g PKG. REGULAR 4's GOLD, WHITE, ALMOND, Z.49 DIAL SOAP um FOUR VARIETIES SOLID TWICE AS FRESH 25 g 1.69 HUGGIES DAYTIME 4$'s OR TODDLERS 33's DIAPERS ' PER ROK 10.49 SUPER SPECIAL VILLAGE BRAND SOFT STYLE MARGARINE SUPER .SPECIAL WHITE SWAN BEIGE, PEACH, WHITE OR YELLOW BATHROOM TISSUE 1,9 • PUSS 'N' BOOTS ASSORTED FLAVOUR MORSELS 500 g 1.49 ANDES BOXED CREME DE MENTHE MINT WAFERS 170 g 1.99 RUBBERMAID HOUSE WARES / SUPER SPECIAL RUBBERMAID LAUNDRY BASKET ALMOND OR CHOCOLATE ROUGHNECK STEPSTOOL ALMOND ONLY MICROWAVE HEATABLES ASSORTED 3.99 6.99 EA. 5.99 MICROWAVE COOKABLES 5 99 ASSORTED EA. • ONLY ONE WEEK LER TO COMPLETE TOUR FUNK t WAGNELLS ENCYCLOPEDIA SET SUPER SPECIAL McCAIN FROZEN STRIAGHT OR CRINKLE SUPERFRIESkgPKG 1 t 9 UNSCENTED, DEODORANT 30's NEW FREEDOM SLIM MAXI -PADS 3.99 REGULAR STYLE 30's NORMAL OR X•BODY CONDITIONER OR NEW FREEDOM FLEX SHAMPOO 4S0 mL Z. 99 MINI -PADS 2.S9 THESE SPECIALS AVAILABLE ONLY IN: HIGHWAYS #4 & 83 EXETER • MONDAY, TUESDAY A WEDNESDAY 94 P.M. THURSDAY IL FRIDAY 9.9:00 P.M. SATURDAY 8404 P.M. ------- --- ------ -JR. AMA - -- - --- Scott showed his audience how to compute the price rallies as the market corrects itself. Corrections on the bear market amount to 38 per- cent of the previous move, while bull market corrections are 50 percent. Scott believes the trend now is bearish. "We've already had one drive up", he said, "and are in the process of making the second." Ac- cording to his analysis, there will then be three drives down and low prices following 1985. Other factors Scott explored were "the year later effect", the inter- relationship between commodities such as corn and hogs, and rising or declining open interest (total number of contracts traded). He warned that no new buying means a trend rever- sal; the professionals are getting out, and the public getting in. Scott assured his listeners "the market is not perfect, just right", and its vagaries can be determined mathematically. He said marketing skills could be acquired by instruction and effort. Businesses plan at least six years in advance, aid farmers must do -the same. "It's not easy at ttie start... you will make mistakes .. but we're making progress, and will make more in the future. Commercial grain companies don't know nearly as much as you do, don't have any handle on production like you do. It's absurd they take ad- vantage of you as they do in the marketplace", Scott commented ad- ding "the sooner you can remove emotion from the decision-making progress, the better off you'll be." Though Scott sees difficult times ahead, he also sees a positive side. He predicts a return to the gold standard, a continuing drop in land prices, and abandoment by both the American and Canadian governments of many farm -supported programes. He also sees many opportunities in the next few years for young farmers, as old dynasties dissolve and new ones are built. Those who know what is going to happen are prepared for the future. Zurich & Area Figure Skating Club members Will be having a skate-a- thon at the arena this Saturday, February 3. The children are now out collecting sponsors for it. Mrs. Meryl Corriveau of the Maple Woods Apartments is spending some time visiting her children in London. Sympathy of the community is ex- tended to Laurene Corriveau and her family on the sudden death of her hus- lanl ap. To Bill Bedour and Cecile Meidinger, Zurich on the loss of their brother, Gordon Bedard, Goderich. Henry Hendricks whose father died last week in Holland. Congratulations to Rudolph and Joan Corriveau who celebrated their aSth wedding anniversary. Best wishes for a speedy recovery are extended to Edith Hohner, a pa- tient in St. Joseph's Hospital, to Marg Suplat who has returned home after surgery. Birthdays Happy birthday to Donna Klopp, Mary -Ann Regier and Evelyn Schroeder who all had birthdays on Sunday, January 27. Spices & Staples Horton Spices (Ground) Black Pepper 100 gram $ 1.39 227 gram $2.79 (Ground) Cinnamon 100 gr. $1.09 227 gr. $2.09 Raspberry Jam 500 gr. $1.49 Heinz, 500 gr. Salad pressing 1.69 A A A • Redpath Brown Sugar 1 kg. $1.19 2 kg. $2.19 New Life Mill Wheat Germ 500 gr. 694 Mon.- Sat. 9 - 5:30 Closed Sunday orgasm. Apiaries Hwy. 84 between Hensall & Zurich • 236-4979 •