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Ag economy in pretty good shape
by Sue Ann Ellis
The agricultural economy is in
pretty good shape according to
George Arnold, manager of
Agriculture Banking -Ontario for the
Royal Bank.
The industry's debt level is well
below what it was before farmers
were hit with the agricultural reces-
sion in the early 1980's, he said.
"There's not any great problem
from the debt management point of
view in the farm industry," Arnold
said.
Arnold was a guest speaker at an
Agricultural Outlook seminar in
George Arnold, guest speaker at an Agricultural Outlook
seminar in Chesley. (Ellis photo)
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Chesley on February 23.
In a telephone interview, he
elaborated on his views for the
agricultural sector.
He said with the federal budget
cutting industrial milk subsidiaries
by 15 per cent for the next two
years, dairy farmers should try to
become more efficient.
"If you can't cash flow a milk
quota over a period of five years,
it's not a good investment."
He said producers should prepare
for the end of the Gatt (General
Agreement on Tariffs and Trade)
around the year 2000, by not bid-
ding the price of milk quotas up.
"Unfortunately quota prices are
still very high. Further quota in-
vestment should be scrutinized. We
should prepare for the future
beyond the ume we don't have high
tariffs and anticipate competitive
pressures on industrial prices. Some
milk producers will have to expand
to stay in business."
The number of farmers in Ontario
has been decreasing over the last 20
years. Arnold attributes this to a
second generation that doesn't want
to stay on the farm and the number
of growing operations.
"The total number of farmers is
not decreasing, but the number of
commercial farmers is dropping."
Not just a way of living anymore,
farming has become more of a
business. In this industry which has
also become more competitive,
Arnold said close to 70 per cent of
those living on farms have some
kind of off -farm income.
In the last 10 years, Canada's
major beef cattle growth has been
in the western provinces, mainly
Alberta, and that has affected On-
tario beef farmers to a certain ex-
tent, Arnold said.
"Beef in Grey and Bruce has been
down a little in the last five years.
Ontario producers need to find a
niche market and cater to it."
In the next year, Arnold said there
is going to be a price pressure not
only for beef, but for all meat
•see Number, page 10
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