The Citizen, 1996-03-20, Page 34Agriculture 1996
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PAGE A-10. THE CITIZEN, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20, 1996.
Climatic changes in Huron County
Experts unsure how warming will affect agriculture
By Bonnie Gropp
If there's global warming, and
most experts agree there is, though
the extent is still open to debate,
how will it affect Huron County's
major industry — agriculture?
Terry Gillespie, a professor at the
University of Guelph, says that
determining the full impact of
global warming and
climactic changes on
agriculture is difficult. "It's a
tough call whether in the
long-term it will be good or
bad for agriculture."
An opportunity it does
suggest is for the
introduction of various crops
into new regions. "If this
part of the province's
temperature were to increase
by just 2°C , Chatham's
growing season would move to the
Guelph area, which would lengthen
it by one month."
In a 1989 study, Climate Change
Digest — Climate Warming and
Canada's Comparative Position in
Agriculture, Environment Canada
(EC) looks at the global production
opportunities possible with climate
warming. The report states that
studies suggest the United States
corn and wheat belts could shift
into Canada with global warming.
The implication of these shifts
would mean the higher yielding
corn varieties could replace
Canadian corn varieties and that
Continued from A-9
January and February, which are
traditionally the months when the
Snowbelt lives up to its name saw
only 15 inches and 13.5 inches of
snow respectively, with a total of
3.5 inches of rain. "The tempera-
ture in the first part of this year has
been very much up and down, with
wide swings."
What this weather means for the
growing season is anyone's guess,
though Taylor says many weather
watchers feel there will be a dry
spell. "If farmers know these things
they can make sure they have them-
selves prepared for it."
His prediction for the upcoming
season is hopeful. "Looking in the
long-range there is talk of a spring
much like last year. Winter was
early, now spring can't come too
soon."
Evidence of change in other parts
of Canada
There is certainly other visible
evidence purported to be a result of
climate change on the North Amer-
ican scale. The southern boundary
of perma-frost has moved north by
160 kilometres. The mid-west Unit-
ed States has experienced floods,
followed by droughts. Also, spring
creak-up on Canadian lakes is now
Canada could shift from the lower
yielding spring wheats to being a
major producer of winter wheats.
Presently winter wheat, which
requires milder winters and wanner
summers is grown in Ontario. This
province is also responsible for
most of the grain corn production
and for total soybean production to
this point.
As an increase in wheat
production is one of the most
notable findings of the study, the
prairies will obviously be the
biggest benefactor of this enhanced
opportunity. However, the study
states that production opportunities
for grain corn are expected to
increase in Canada and the USSR
and decrease in the rest of North
and Central American, South
American and Europe. This could
mean the opening of new markets
for corn grain.
M well with the projected shift
into Canada of the corn belt there
a week earlier than it was 30 years
ago.
Henry Koch, a horticulturalist at
the University of Guelph, said in an
interview with The Rural Voice in
would be a reduction in the current
import trade form the U.S.
The report states, "Given a
climate warming, it is possible that
the traditional north-south flow of
grain corn will evolve into an east-
west flow and Ontario could
become a major supplier of grain
corn for the prairies livestock
industry."
The success of this may
depend on one thing,
according to Gillespie.
"The key to whether this
can happen is water."
Global warming increases
the demand for
evaporation which will
outstrip any precipitation.
This relys not just on
rainfall but on the intensity
as well. Henry Kock, a
horticulturalist at the University of
Guelph's Arboretum explains that
10 to 15 minute cloudbursts (which
we are seeing more of, again,
apparently due to environmental
impact such as deforestation) result
in a lot of surface run of, carrying
with it a lot of organic material.
"It's rain that should have gone into
the soil to recharge the ground
water."
Gillespie says, "On the average,
if the trend continues, there is a
distinct possibility that soil
moisture would be down. To take
advantage of the lengthening
growing season we might have to
March of 1993, "We are experienc-
ing heavier and heavier storms in
Ontario and central North America
in my own memory since I was
10."
move to more irrigation."
A recent story in Farm &
Country points out another
concern. While a longer growing
season would provide benefits,
warmer summers could well mean
more days of crop-killing ground
level ozone levels. According to an
EC study done in 1995, the number
of days where temperature was over
30°C, is in direct correlation with the
number of days where smog
exceeded acceptable air quality limits
of 82 parts per billion.
Production
opportunities for
grain corn expected to
increase in Canada
and the USSR
Forecasts help farmers prepare