The Citizen, 1996-03-20, Page 33Agriculture 1996
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THE CITIZEN, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20, 1996. PAGE A-9.
'Greenhouse gas' studies still preliminary, says EC
Continued from A-8
dian universities.
While these, and other studies
show increasing "greenhouse gas"
concentrations have potential for
profound impacts on the physical
environment, the results ''must still
be treated as preliminary," says an
EC report. "There is general scien-
tific agreement on the direction of
long-term climate change, but
uncertainty in the estimates of the
magnitude and timing."
"We are just creeping out of that
certain change," Gillespie says. "In
a nutshell, however, for this part of
the country there is no question in
the data we have that things are
getting warmer. It's not steady, it's
like the stock market with fluctua-
tions up and down, but if we look
at the patterns it's happening."
Professor Gillespie says that
information on global warming at
the university dates back 100 years.
"There was a period in the middle
of this when the temperature
dipped, but that was just a blip. The
trend is clearly up, up, up."
But not quickly. While the hun-
dreds of scientists studying the
issue, may differ in some opinions,
one panel of climate experts stated
that the earth is .5°C warmer than it
was 100 years ago. EC says the
temperature here is 1°C higher
than it was a century ago.
According to EC this country has
experienced both warmer and cold-
er climates than it is now. Since the
end of the last ice age some 10,000
years ago, the earth's average tem-
perature has been relatively stable,
varying within a range of only
1.5°C to 2°C. Yet, even such a
small variation can significantly
affect the environment.
Since the last ice age, there have
been two notable warming
episodes, the first peaking 6,000
years ago when the average global
temperature was probably about
1°C warmer than it was at the
beginning of the 20th century. The
second happened between 950 AD
and 1250 AD.
EC states a significant cooling
began in the 15th century, which
lasted for the next few hundred
years.
Since the 1890s, global tempera-
tures have shown a sharp upward
trend that has generally persisted to
the present day, though there was a
gradual cooling in the mid 1940s.
Temperatures began to rise in the
late 1970s and are now close to the
By Bonnie Gropp
Think of the world wearing a
sunhat and you get an image of the
effects of global warming and the
resulting climactic changes, a 'hot'
topic with scientists and climatolo-
gists around the world these days.
Boyd Taylor, a local weather
observer with Environment Canada
(EC) says looking back over the
past five years there is no doubt
that weather patterns are changing.
"I go back to 1952 when I was vis-
iting my uncle, who was a veteri-
narian in Ohio. One old fanner told
me then that in 40 years our winters
would be like theirs and he wasn't
too far out."
Taylor says this year, one of the
most noticeable things has been a
total lack of sun, a direct result
quite likely of the warming trend
noted by experts. "As the tempera-
tures gets warmer there is more
evaporation, hence more cloud. It's
like wearing a sunhat all the time,"
says Taylor. Using the first two
months of 1996 to illustrate, he
noted that January got off to a
frigid start, followed by a mild
streak at the middle of the month.
Between Jan. 1-16 there was sun-
light during 50 per cent of the day-
time, but from Jan. 17 until nearing
month's end there was nothing but
'cloud and wind, though the temper-
atures continued to be mild. The
values that prevailed during the
warm period of the Middle Ages.
Environment Canada notes that
should this trend continue, there
will be a return of the sea ice and
vegetation patterns of the Medieval
Warm Period (MWP).
Conversely, however, Henry
Hengeveld, a science advisor on
climate change with EC, wrote in a
letter to The Globe and Mail, that it
is not possible to conclude whether
end of the month and into February
was stormy.
Another difference in weather
moods has been the large swings in
temperature, with below freezing
temperatures noted one day and
record highs the next. "It's not to
say that we haven't had the
extremes during a season before,
but this year it's just been so
abrupt."
For example, Taylor noted Feb.
23, which began with clouds, fog, a
south-east wind and a trace of rain.
That night was "wild" with thun-
derstorms and 13 mm of rain
falling. "Then we woke up to 3 cm
of snow and clouds. By afternoon it
was clear then the next few days
were unseasonably mild.
This is the pattern of inconsisten-
cy that Taylor has noted to be fairly
constant over the past four years,
with one significant difference.
"The winds this year just seem to
race in on us."
The precipitation told an interest-
ing story as well, Taylor says. Both
November and December were of
average temperature, but there was
heavy precipitation. Taylor record-
ed 4.6 inches of rain in November
along with an impressive 52.8 inch-
es of snowfall, while December had
one inch of rain and 77.9 inches of
snow.
Continued on A-10
or not the MWP ever happened,
and if so, whether average global
temperatures during this event were
comparable to that of recent
decades.
One thing that does seem clear, is
that there is still' much to be learned
and understood about global warm-
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ing, climate change and the impacts
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Changing weather patterns
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