The Rural Voice, 2019-08, Page 72representatives called growers and
asked them how many acres they had
planted or intended to plant by crop,
on all their acres. This phone survey
is massive and is likely not
repeatable by any other group. The
reason I say that it is not repeatable is
because of the sheer size of the
review. For this survey the USDA
gathered data from 68,000 individual
farms. From this information they
applied statistical techniques to
determine this portion of their
estimate.
The second portion of the survey
involves the physical inspection
of blocks of land. USDA
representatives go to the fields and
survey what crop is actually planted
in pre-selected blocks. If no crop (or
crops) is planted yet within that
block, the USDA representative
contacts the grower to determine
planting intentions. The survey
blocks are each one square mile, and
therefore could cover multiple
different farmers. In total this survey
involves 9,000 square mile blocks or
5,760,000 acres. This survey
involves 31,000 farmers.
Therefore, in total, the USDA
surveyed 99,000 farmers to gather
data for their June 28 report. As we
sit here today, we recognize that
while it may not be completely
reflective of the actual conditions in
the field, it is not overly prudent to
discount their information
completely. Therefore as the market
prices faded from their highs, the
large commodity funds have been
selling their positions, demonstrating
that they do not want to be offside
from the USDA’s data. From this
discussion the take-away point today
is that the market will likely drift
until planted acres are confirmed on
August 12.
As we enter wheat harvest in
Ontario, quality has been top of mind
within the trade. With the widespread
frequent rains experienced almost
everywhere, concern of vomitoxin
has been prevalent. There have been
reports of extremely high vom in
parts of Indiana, however as harvest
moved north into southern Michigan
and northern Ohio quality has been
better. Hopefully this trend continues
into Ontario and we see quality
wheat. ◊
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August 2019 69