The Rural Voice, 1989-08, Page 16ALLCOLOUR
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14 THE RURAL VOICE
GRAIN MARKETS
July 19, 1989 — Markets over
the past month have given producers
an opportunity to market both old and
new crop production. The thought of
hot, dry conditions during the July 4
weekend provided some quick
strength to both com and soys with
limit -up moves on July 5 in most com-
modities. The following day provided
some more strength, but the past two
weeks the markets have dropped just
as quickly with limit -down moves on
July 17. This drop was a result of a
general rain throughout most of the
corn and soybean areas coinciding
with pollination of most of the corn.
CORN
Com futures showed some good
gains early in July to the $2.78 area in
both September and December. With
elevator basis at 35 to 40 cents for
new crop corn, cash prices got as high
as $3.13 to $3.18 per bushel and old
crop got to about $3.78/bu. Off -farm
prices for corn peaked at over $3.90/
bu. with new crop com off -farm
reaching $3.28/bu.
USDA issued final acreage figures
for 1989, which were pretty much on
target at 72.8 million acres with 65.8
million acres to be harvested. The
interesting part of the report was
regarding the projected 1990 carry -out
figures, which showed no increase
from the 1989 carry-over of 1.833
billion bushels. These figures helped
to stabilize the corn market for a short
This information is taken from
reliable sources, but accuracy
and completeness are not guar-
anteed. Dave Gordon is a grain
merchandiser with London
Agricultural Commodities,
Inc. in Hyde Park, Ont., 519-
473-9333 or 1-800-265-1885.
period before rainfall came into the
picture.
The general feeling is that corn
futures still have some down -side risk,
possibly to the $2.20 area on Decem-
ber futures. The market will likely be
directed by the demand side rather
than the supply side or crop size. If
demand stays relatively firm for the
next year, carry-over stock projections
for 1990 should keep a bottom under
the market.
Producers should keep in mind that
public interest hearings will be held
again in regard to the countervail duty
on corn. The tribunal has several
options, including dropping the duty,
reducing the duty, or leaving the duty
of 46 cents/bu. in place. I'd expect a
decision to be reached by September.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures made some good
gains in early July, but not to the ex-
tent that corn did. While corn futures
rose 38 cents/bu. in only eight trading
days, soybeans gained 88 cents/bu. in
the same time period because soy-
beans are not yet to the critical stages.
With the rise in futures, new crop
soys at the elevator level reached the
$7.80 to $7.85/bu. level while old crop
soys approached the $8.80/bu. area.
The Chicago Board of Trade ruled
on July 11 that all traders, but mainly
Ferruzzi, holding 3 million bushels of
July soybean futures had to liquidate
20 per cent per day over 5 days. This