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28 THE RURAL VOICE
it will be less and less possible to have
something that results in consensus.
Because the very root of economics,
especially the cash economy, is
competition." In short, neighbours
become competitors; the possibility of
a common agenda disapears.
"And we in fact see groups of
farmers from time to time working
together, yes, but purely when they
have common economic interests,
such as badgering governments to
provide subsidies, or badgering
governments to provide protection for
their particular activities, badgering
governments for rules that will allow
them to continue their business as they
see fit."
"I think farm families should
have a reasonable standard of living,
as good as the small entrepreneur
in town, but that standard, if that
becomes one's goal, will not be
delivered by the free market or the
cash economy. If we say we want the
farm family to have this comparable
standard of living, and the cash
economy has to deliver, a number of
things will be the consequence."
One, says van Donkersgoed: we
will have to "mine the soil." Two:
the number of people farming will
have to shrink "dramatically." Three:
we will be taking "an enormous risk
with food security."
To temper market forces and to
ensure that agriculture is sustainable,
he says, human intervention is needed.
That human intervention requires two
basic steps: accepting that there is
more to agriculture than the cash
economy, and doing what is necessary
to sustain farm people, environmental
resources, and food security. It means
"agroecology," which is a creative
interdependence of people and land.
Without a change in our perception
of goals, in our devotion to a short-
sighted definition of financial success,
van Donkersgoed says, agriculture
will become increasingly vulnerable
to dislocation of supply and demand.
"The future of the dominant farming
system is that it will more often bump
its limits."
Take the U.S. corn crops of this
decade, he says. In three out of eight
years, yield was dramatically below
what was expected, a shortfall van
Donkersgoed attributes to a still
increasing dependence on inputs of
fertilizer and pesticides and the
intensive use of land. The system is
fragile, it presumes good weather, and
under any weather stress it starts to
fail. In 1984, 1985, and 1986 farmers
had "abnormally good" weather
conditions, and surpluses as a result.
But, says van Donkersgoed, "I think
the dominant farming system is at a
point now that even with normal
growing weather it is probably not go-
ing to deliver as we had anticipated."
In the short term, such news is
good for farmers. It means higher
prices for grain. "The chances of
higher prices of grain this year under
normal weather conditions, I would
say, are very good. Any weather
stress, and the prices will be dramat-
ically better, and we need to have
abnormally good weather in order
to step back from the brink."
The "brink" to which van Donkers-
goed refers brings the discussion full
circle. The circle is a reminder not
only of the globe, of the world's need
for a secure food supply, but of the
interdependence of man and his
environment, and of agriculture as
service to the community.
Or, from a contrasting perspective,
if we continue to push economics at
the expense of the quality of life we
will not only reduce the quality of life,
but will eventually derail our
economic welfare: a vicious circle.
"The drought of 1988 has put the
food system on the brink of a major
dislocation," van Donkersgoed said in
a press release issued in January.
Most recent farm policy initiatives
started on the assumption that we have
surplus production, he added, but the
drought "wiped out the cushion and
we stand on the brink of a food crisis
more severe than in the mid -seventies
when grain prices soared."
Weather stress this year, van
Donkersgoed says, will put the food
economy into a tailspin.
Such news might be greeted with
skepticism by farmers accustomed to
punishment by overproduction; at the
least it may be disorienting. But van
Donkersgoed points to the Third
World for additional examples of
unsustainable agriculture. The Third