The Rural Voice, 1989-01, Page 15expect steady prices at the worst, with a strong possibility of
a price improvement in the months ahead.
I
n terms of soybeans, the carryover estimates as a
percentage of total production are even lower than
corn, so it would be logical to assume that bean
prices have an even much better chance to increase.
There is renewed talk of oil prices once again
approaching the $18 U.S. per barrel level. They have been
as low as $12.29 per barrel in early October to more than
$15 (December 8, 1988). It now appears that the oil
producers in the Mid -East have come to an agreement on
their production quotas. This should stabilize prices and
bring about a floor price. We qualify this by noting that
OPEC changes its policies as often as a teenage girl changes
her clothes before a date and that nothing is etched in stone.
T
he saying is "put pork on your fork," and with the
prices producers have been receiving for the past
several months, no doubt the consumer has been
doing just that. On November 9, the USDA released its
quarterly price projections. Over the years we have found
their estimates haven't been too far off base, so here they
are (in $U.S. live weight).
Hogs 1st quarter 41-47, 2nd quarter 45-51, cattle 1st
quarter 67-73, 2nd quarter 75-81. Their estimates of total
meat production, including poultry, are 14,728 million
pounds for the 1st quarter and 14,765 million pounds for
the second quarter of 1989. This compares with total meat
production of 15,365 and 15,358 million pounds
respectively for the last two quarters of 1988.
Silver, what do we know about it? Only this, that in the
past 10 years it has traded slightly below $5.00 per oz. U.S.
funds and close to $50.00 on the high side. Yet at the time
of writing, almost everyone expects it to get cheaper
(current price $6.14/oz.).
We sit here trying to look into the crystal ball of prices
for 1989. With a bit of skepticism, we ask ourselves what
will be the unforeseen circumstance that will throw our
expectations out of kilter this coming year.
U
nfortunately, we have no idea, and there is no
point taking time to worry about it. In fact, you
don't have to worry about it, because in our next
article we will be discussing minimum price contracts on
grains and meats — a method of guaranteeing yourself a
floor price should the market move adversely while
allowing you the advantage of a favourable price change.0
Allan Kneeshaw and Paul Clarke are commodity brokers
with Nesbitt Thomson Deacon Inc. in Waterloo. All
questions and comments are welcomed by them. Telephone
1-800-265-6148 or 886-3100.
CANADIAN
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I.IMITh;1)
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RIPLEY
WOOL DEPOT
John Farrell
R.R. 3, Ripley, Ontario
519-395-5757
HOW GOOD IS YOUR HAY?
You can't tell just by looking!
Hay can vary from 6% to 25% protein (on a dry
matter basis). Calcium on hay can range from
0.40% to 1.7%. Other nutrients can also show
wide variation.
An accurate chemical analysis of your hay and
other feed products will give you the answer.
For more information, call or write and inquire about
our feed and forage testing services.
AGRI SERVICES
353 Bridge St. E. Kitchener Ont.
Box 1707, Stn. C. N2G 4R2 519-742-5811
JANUARY 1989 13
16.