The Rural Voice, 1988-11, Page 18H\agedor/n
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16 THE RURAL VOICE
GRAIN MARKETS
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Grain markets have traded side-
ways over the past month with the
tendency to grind lower. Corn futures
are still in the $2.80 to $3.00/bu. range
on December futures while soyabeans
have traded around the $8.00/bu. mark
on November soys. With soyabean
and corn harvest moving along slowly,
yields have shown a very wide range.
Com yields have varied from 35 bu./
acre to 175 bu./acre and soys have
yielded between 12 and 65 bu./acre
depending on the area.
CORN
In October, we saw the USDA
revise the com production estimate
up slightly. This, however, had little
effect on the markets. Basis levels in
Ontario have strengthened to 85 to 90
cents over December futures with off -
farm bids of 90 to 95 cents over
December futures.
One of the many oddities we've
seen this year is the fact that Western
Ontario corn is trading higher than
Eastern Ontario corn. This is because
of a smaller crop than usual in West-
ern Ontario while, at the same time,
U.S. com is trading into Quebec and
filling some of the feed needs in
Eastern Canada. As well, Eastern
Ontario and Quebec are witnessing
very good yields.
As a producer, you will have to de-
cide what costs you attribute to stored
grain in order to determine whether
storage is feasible. My opinion is that
storage will probably not pay because
of the high basis levels now. The flat
price may remain high but think of the
increase we'll have to see to pay you
for your interest and storage.
SOYABEANS
The USDA also raised the soya -
bean production figure slightly. It
had very little effect on futures prices
at the time, but in the past two weeks
futures have trended lower with the
low October 21 of $7.74/bu. on
November futures.
Basis levels in Ontario have drop-
ped considerably over the past month,
with elevators generally at 85 cents
over November futures. This hap-
pened, despite a stronger basis in the
U.S., because of lower soyabean
prices and a much stronger Canadian
dollar.
Crushers in Ontario are full or near
full and as a result are receiving soys
very slowly. I expect this to continue
until the harvest crunch is over.
We will likely continue to see
fairly strong volatility over the next
couple of months as rumours continue
to hit the market.
In feed grain, barley is still trading
in the $145 to $148/MT range with
Western barley trading over $150/MT.
Oat prices have stabilized and
appear ready to strengthen slightly.
Western feed oats have maintained
their strength and are trading around
$200/MT.
As I've said before, take advantage
of the opportunities that are presented
and don't let taxes dictate strategies.*
This information is taken from
sources believed to be reliable, but
accuracy and completeness are not
guaranteed.
Dave Gordon is a grain mer-
chandiser with London Agricultural
Commodities, Inc. in Hyde Park,
Ontario, telephone 519-473-9333 or
1-800-265-1885.